United Parcel Service Inc. ($UPS) Stock Forecast: Down 4.9% Today

What is United Parcel Service Inc.?

UPS, or United Parcel Service, is a global package delivery and supply chain management company based in the United States. The company is known for its brown delivery trucks and uniforms, operating in over 220 countries and territories worldwide.

Why is United Parcel Service Inc. going down?

UPS stock is down 4.9% on Apr 28, 2026 19:40

• UPS experienced a bearish movement as investors reacted to the company committing to returning tariff refunds to customers, potentially impacting its revenue and cash flow in the short term.
• The decision to remit approximately $5 billion in tariffs collected from customers, following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling, likely raised concerns about potential financial implications and operational adjustments for UPS.
• The market movement may also reflect investor sentiment regarding the broader implications of tariff refunds on the logistics and shipping industry, considering the competitive landscape and regulatory environment.

UPS Price Chart

UPS Technical Analysis

UPS News

FedEx, UPS vow to return tariff refunds to customers

FedEx and UPS have committed to returning tariff refunds to their customers as the U.S. government begins to disburse illegally collected levies. This decision follows a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in February that struck down tariffs pursued by former President Donald Trump, making approximately $166 billion in U.S. tariff collections eligible for refunds. UPS CEO Carol Tome noted the company collected about $5 billion in tariffs from customers and will remit these funds once received from Customs Border Protection.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/fedex-ups-vow-return-tariff-refunds-customers-2026-04-28/

ArcBest Reports Q1 Loss as Shifting Freight Mix Offsets Rising Volume

ArcBest Corp. reported a Q1 loss of just over $1 million, or 5 cents per share, despite a 3.3% increase in revenue to $998.8 million, surpassing Wall Street estimates. The loss was primarily attributed to higher labor costs, fuel expenses, and a shift towards heavier shipments, offsetting gains from rising volume. The company's shares increased by about 1% on the news and have soared over 115% in the past year, reflecting investor anticipation of an end to the freight recession.

https://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article/arcbest-q1-earnings-loss-revenue-rise/

FedEx prepares to reactivate grounded MD-11 fleet in May

FedEx is preparing to reactivate its grounded fleet of 28 MD-11 freighter aircraft by the end of May, working with Boeing to install a new bearing to correct a pylon design flaw. This move comes despite regulators not yet lifting a mandatory grounding initiated after a fatal UPS MD-11 crash in November. FedEx plans to discuss the repair and safety actions with flight crews and remains optimistic about the aircraft's return to service, contrasting with UPS's decision to scrap its MD-11 fleet.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/fedex-prepares-to-reactivate-grounded-md-11-fleet-in-may

Illinois Tool Works Q1 2026 Earnings Preview — April 30, Street Expects $2.56 EPS

Wall Street anticipates Illinois Tool Works to report sequential growth in Q1 2026, with analysts expecting $2.56 EPS on $4.01 billion in revenue, reflecting a 7.6% year-over-year EPS increase and a 4.4% revenue increase. The company's diversified industrial portfolio and margin trajectory will be key areas of focus for investors, especially considering the 18.2% net margin from Q1 2025. Investors will closely watch segment-level organic growth, operating margins, commentary on enterprise initiatives, and capital allocation when ITW releases its results on April 30th.

https://news.alphastreet.com/illinois-tool-works-q1-2026-earnings-preview-april-30-street-expects-2-56-eps/

John Deere’s 300-Job U.S. Expansion Faces the Layoff Math Behind Its Comeback

John Deere plans to add 300 new U.S. jobs with new facilities in Indiana and North Carolina, aiming to boost domestic manufacturing. However, this expansion comes after thousands of layoffs in 2024 and 2025, raising questions about the company's ability to offset recent job reductions amid persistently soft demand in the farm equipment sector due to tariffs and falling crop prices. Despite a dip in net income, global sales rose, and Deere slightly increased its fiscal 2026 net income outlook, though the large agricultural market is expected to shrink further.

https://ts2.tech/en/john-deeres-300-job-u-s-expansion-faces-the-layoff-math-behind-its-comeback/

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United Parcel Service Inc. Price History

03.01.2026 - UPS Stock was up 6.1%

• UPS experienced a surge in its stock value today due to its decision to purchase 125 hybrid-electric delivery trucks from Workhorse Group Inc., highlighting its dedication to sustainability and innovation in fleet operations.
• The company's expansion of its electric-powered fleet is in line with its "Rolling Laboratory" program, which focuses on implementing advanced technologies to decrease environmental impact and operating expenses, resulting in a favorable response from investors and analysts.
• By taking this step, UPS not only showcases its proactive stance on environmental stewardship but also positions itself as a pioneer in embracing eco-friendly solutions within the logistics sector, potentially attracting more environmentally-conscious clientele and investors.

27.00.2026 - UPS Stock was up 0.8%

• UPS experienced a strong bullish movement following the release of its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings and 2026 guidance.
• The positive market response can be attributed to UPS's robust financial performance, with consolidated revenues reaching $24.5 billion and a promising outlook for 2026.
• UPS's focus on strengthening revenue quality and optimizing its network, including the accelerated retirement of its MD-11 aircraft fleet, has likely instilled confidence in investors regarding the company's future growth prospects.
• The market may view UPS's proactive measures and strategic decisions as key drivers for its bullish momentum, positioning the company favorably in the competitive logistics and delivery sector.

04.02.2026 - UPS Stock was up 1.2%

• Despite experiencing a net loss in the fourth quarter of 2016, UPS displayed a bullish movement in the stock market, showcasing investor confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
• The stock's slightly lower adjusted earnings compared to analyst estimates did not deter investors, indicating a positive outlook on UPS's ability to overcome challenges and enhance profitability.
• Positive sentiment towards UPS is influenced by the company's track record of surpassing earnings expectations, despite facing challenges like pension charges and decreased truck deliveries.
• Investor optimism in UPS is also fueled by the company's outperformance of the S&P 500 over the past three and six months, underscoring its resilience and growth potential in a competitive market.

04.02.2026 - UPS Stock was up 1.4%

• UPS stock witnessed a strong bullish movement today, possibly influenced by positive market sentiment and increased demand for delivery services.
• Varied 1Q results from Saia Inc. and ABF Freight might have impacted investor confidence in UPS's performance within the logistics sector, with Saia reporting substantial earnings and revenue growth while ABF Freight faced losses.
• The decision by American Eagle Outfitters to lay off over 200 employees as part of its Quiet Logistics winddown could indicate potential cost-saving initiatives within the retail industry, indirectly affecting UPS's supply chain operations and delivery volumes.
• Overall, UPS's positive momentum today could be attributed to a mix of sector-specific developments and broader market optimism, positioning the company well for investors looking to tap into the logistics and transportation sector.

27.00.2026 - UPS Stock was up 4.7%

• Despite Winter Storm Fern causing widespread freight delays, UPS stock exhibited a bullish movement, highlighting its resilience amidst external challenges.
• Analysts' positive projections for UPS in 2026, its history of surpassing EPS estimates, and being acknowledged as a top pick in the Industrial Goods sector likely influenced the bullish market trend.
• The company's favorable reputation among analysts and investors could have bolstered investor confidence and supported the upward market trajectory.
• In summary, UPS's adept navigation through operational hurdles, combined with optimistic market prospects and analyst endorsements, fueled its impressive bullish performance today.

05.02.2026 - UPS Stock was down 5.2%

• UPS reported a net loss of $239 million in the fourth quarter of 2016, primarily due to pension charges. This negative financial performance could have contributed to the bearish movement in the stock price.
• Recent challenges faced by another company in the industry, including temporary service suspensions and an upcoming spin-off, might have influenced negative sentiments within the logistics sector, affecting UPS as well.
• The news of U.S. Xpress Enterprises Inc. planning to sell stock could have prompted investors to look towards alternative logistics firms, potentially leading to the bearish trend in UPS stock.
• Concerns in the market about rising fuel prices and operational disruptions may have also played a role in influencing the bearish movement in UPS stock, reflecting the overall sentiment towards logistics companies.

05.02.2026 - UPS Stock was down 5.6%

• UPS showed bearish movement possibly due to heightened competition and market changes in the logistics sector:
• OneRail's acknowledgment in the Gartner Market Guide indicates the rising significance of AI and orchestration in last-mile delivery, presenting a potential challenge to established players like UPS.
• P.A.M. Transportation's revenue growth and emphasis on rate hikes point to a competitive pricing landscape that could affect UPS's market share.
• U.S. Xpress's stock offering raised concerns regarding dilution and capital accumulation in the industry, prompting investor wariness towards UPS.
• GXO Logistics' expansion in European retail logistics reflects the trend of companies outsourcing supply chain functions, creating hurdles for UPS in sustaining its market position.
• FedEx's struggles with geopolitical tensions, legal matters, and corporate reorganization may have impacted the overall market sentiment towards logistics firms, including UPS.

28.03.2026 - UPS Stock was down 4.9%

• UPS experienced a bearish movement as investors reacted to the company committing to returning tariff refunds to customers, potentially impacting its revenue and cash flow in the short term.
• The decision to remit approximately $5 billion in tariffs collected from customers, following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling, likely raised concerns about potential financial implications and operational adjustments for UPS.
• The market movement may also reflect investor sentiment regarding the broader implications of tariff refunds on the logistics and shipping industry, considering the competitive landscape and regulatory environment.

28.03.2026 - UPS Stock was down 5.3%

• UPS reported Q1 2026 earnings that fell short of prior-year figures, with revenues of $21.2 billion and diluted EPS of $1.02, leading to a bearish market reaction.
• Despite the earnings drop, UPS reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, aiming for approximately $89.7 billion in revenue and a 9.6% non-GAAP adjusted operating margin, which provided some stability to the stock.
• The overall market sentiment towards UPS was likely influenced by the company's mixed quarterly results, as investors may have been disappointed by the earnings miss but found reassurance in the company's commitment to ongoing transformation efforts and cost-saving initiatives.
• The bearish movement in UPS stock could also be attributed to the broader market context and investor expectations for the logistics and delivery sector, especially with other companies like Home Depot introducing innovative solutions to enhance customer satisfaction and efficiency in delivery services.

28.00.2026 - UPS Stock was down 5.2%

• UPS experienced a strong bearish movement today.
• Despite UPS beating Q4 earnings estimates and providing higher revenue guidance, the market reacted negatively, possibly due to concerns over planned job cuts and a strategic shift away from low-margin Amazon volume.
• Amazon's announcement of cutting 16,000 corporate jobs in an AI-driven restructuring may have impacted UPS negatively, as it signals potential changes in shipping volume and competition in the logistics industry.
• The increased price target by TD Cowen for UPS could not offset the bearish sentiment, as investors may be cautious about the near-term execution risks mentioned in recent updates.

06.02.2026 - UPS Stock was down 6.6%

• UPS stock decreased by 5.82% to $104.07 on Thursday, performing worse than the overall market.
• The decline in the market was influenced by increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which caused oil prices to rise and rekindled worries about inflation, leading to UPS's drop.
• Furthermore, concerns raised by the FAA over the expansion plans at O'Hare involving smaller cities likely further impacted UPS negatively.
• Despite UPS's weaker performance, there are positive long-term expectations for Ducommun, another company that was mentioned, even though its shares declined due to missing quarterly revenue targets.

12.01.2026 - UPS Stock was down 1.6%

• The bearish movement in UPS stock today could be attributed to JD.com expanding its last-mile delivery service, JoyExpress, in Europe. This move by JD.com to enhance its logistics capabilities and compete more directly with established European e-commerce players might have raised concerns about increased competition for UPS in the delivery space.
• Additionally, the announcement of FedEx and Advent acquiring InPost, a Polish logistics firm, in a $9.2 billion deal, could have added to the negative sentiment around UPS as investors may see this as a strengthening of competitors in the logistics sector.
• The focus on strategic growth and technology utilization by Werner Enterprises at the Stifel Financial Corp. Transportation & Logistics Conference could have highlighted potential advancements and efficiencies in the industry, possibly overshadowing UPS's current position and leading to a bearish market movement for the company.