Copper ($COPPER) Commodity Forecast: Down 21.9% Today

What is Copper?

Copper, a widely used industrial metal, experienced a significant bearish movement in the market today.

Why is Copper going down?

COPPER commodity is down 21.9% on Jul 31, 2025 9:40

• Copper futures plunged due to a recent decision to exclude refined copper from new tariffs applied by a prominent figure, leading to a significant decline in prices.
• Traders reacted by accelerating shipments to the US in anticipation of broader tariffs, resulting in a shift in copper flows and reduced demand.
• The exclusion of raw forms of copper like ore and concentrates from tariffs also influenced the market reaction, impacting sentiment adversely.
• Following this development, Copper hit an 8-week low, with prices dropping substantially by 20%, underlining the notable effect of the tariff exemption on the commodity's value.

COPPER Price Chart

COPPER Technical Analysis

COPPER News

Copper Extends Record High Plunge on Tariff Relief

Copper futures in the US fell up to 6% to $5.35 per pound on Thursday, extending the record-high 18% plunge in the previous session after President Trump excluded refined copper from the tariff package that will start on Friday. The tariffs will apply to imports of semi-finished copper products in wires and pipes, but will refrain from taxing ore, cathodes, and concentrates, among the most widely forms of copper imported to the US. The slump was the unwind of traders allocating metal into the US before the end of July to undercut threats of 50% tariffs on copper, which included refined products, and led to shortages of metal in foreign exchanges to lift copper futures to a record of $5.9 this week. Consequently, the premium of US copper to comparable LME contracts had surged to a record of 30%. The new measures also stated tariffs would only be applied to the share of copper in semifinished products, in addition of export controls for a growing share of metal to be sold domestically.

Copper Sinks as Raw Metal Excluded from US Tariffs

Copper futures fell over 4% to below $4.50 per pound on Thursday, extending a nearly 20% drop in the previous sessions after President Donald Trump confirmed that refined copper will be excluded from new US tariffs that will take effect on Friday. The tariff package will target semi-finished copper products such as wires and pipes but will exempt raw forms like ore, cathodes, and concentrates, key inputs in industrial manufacturing and the most commonly imported copper forms into the US. The selloff also reflected a reversal of front-loaded shipments as traders had redirected copper flows to the US in anticipation of broader tariffs. With raw materials now exempt, demand for US-bound copper has sharply declined. Chile, the US’s largest copper supplier, welcomed the exemption. The US sources about 45% of its industrial copper needs from imports, with Chile accounting for roughly half of that total.

Copper is down by 5.01%

Copper decreased 5.01% to 4.3819 USD/Lbs

Copper Plunges 20% on Trump Tariff Exclusion

Copper futures in the US plummeted by up to 20% to the $4.55 mark on Wednesday, the largest intra-day fall on record after President Trump excluded refined copper from the tariff package that will start on Friday. The tariffs will apply to imports of semi-finished copper products in wires and pipes, but will refrain from taxing ore, cathodes, and concentrates, among the most widely forms of copper imported to the US. The slump was the unwind of traders allocating metal into the US before the end of July to undercut threats of 50% tariffs on copper, which included refined products, and led to shortages of metal in foreign exchanges to lift copper futures to a record of $5.9 this week. Consequently, the premium of US copper to comparable LME contracts had surged to a record of 30%. The new measures also stated tariffs would only be applied to the share of copper in semifinished products, in addition of export controls for a growing share of metal to be sold domestically.

Copper Hits 8-week Low

Copper decreased to 4.63 USD/Lbs, the lowest since June 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Copper lost 8.37%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 10.85%.

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Copper Price History

09.04.2025 - COPPER Commodity was up 1.3%

• The bullish movement in Copper today can be attributed to signs of robust demand in China, the world's largest consumer of the metal. Strong procurement activity from State Grid Corp of China and a surge in home appliance sales indicate healthy consumer demand, boosting market sentiment.
• The upcoming meeting between US and Chinese representatives in Switzerland to discuss trade issues has raised optimism around a potential deal, further supporting the demand outlook for copper.
• On the flip side, recent reports of disappointing manufacturing PMI reports in major economies and increasing copper inventories in North American warehouses have put pressure on copper prices, reflecting concerns about weaker global demand and oversupply in the market.
• The market movement also reflects the impact of evolving global trade dynamics, with investors closely monitoring developments such as potential tariff negotiations and policy rate cuts by China's central bank in response to US tariffs.

09.06.2025 - COPPER Commodity was up 9.8%

• Copper experienced a strong bullish movement today, reaching record highs in the futures market.
• The surge in copper prices was driven by an announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports to the US, aimed at boosting domestic production and reducing reliance on foreign supply.
• The tariff news led to heightened market volatility and uncertainty, with traders anticipating tighter global supplies and increased premiums for US copper futures.
• The decline in copper prices in Shanghai and London could be attributed to concerns over demand, particularly from Chinese fabricators, amidst elevated prices and trade tensions.

09.06.2025 - COPPER Commodity was up 9.9%

• The bullish movement in copper prices was driven by a recent announcement regarding a significant tariff on copper imports to the US, intended to increase domestic production and decrease reliance on foreign supply.
• Market analysts anticipate that the tariff implementation may result in higher shipments into the US in the near term, potentially leading to tighter global supplies and market imbalances.
• The announcement of the tariff has heightened trade tensions and volatility in the metals market, aligning it with existing duties on steel and aluminum.
• Despite the upward movement, concerns about reduced demand from Chinese fabricators and the possible effects of upcoming tariff announcements on US demand could potentially reverse the recent surge in copper prices.

26.05.2025 - COPPER Commodity was up 3.5%

• Copper prices saw a surge as global inventories decreased, reaching a three-week high due to a substantial influx of around 400 kilotons of copper into the US before possible tariffs, tightening the global supply.
• Geopolitical developments, including reduced tensions in the Middle East and a US-mediated truce between Israel and Iran, added to the upward momentum in copper prices.
• Analysts noted that while the current inventory situation is boosting prices, there are concerns that the finalization of proposed tariffs on copper imports in the US could lead to a decrease in purchases by US customers, potentially impacting short-term demand and prices.
• Despite these uncertainties, Chinese copper demand remained strong, contributing to the positive overall outlook for copper prices in today's market.

08.06.2025 - COPPER Commodity was up 9.5%

• The bullish movement in copper prices can be attributed to recent announcements regarding tariff changes on copper imports to the US. This has resulted in a surge in copper futures, reaching record highs above $5.5 per pound.
• Traders are anticipating an increase in copper shipments to the US following the tariff adjustments, leading to notable inventory drawdowns at major exchanges. This change in shipment patterns is causing a price premium and tightening global supplies, further supporting the bullish momentum in copper prices.
• However, there are concerns about decreasing demand from Chinese fabricators and the potential impact of tariffs on US import demand, which could potentially lead to a reversal in the copper rally if market expectations are not met. The market is sensitive to trade tensions and global economic conditions, which could impact future price movements.

08.06.2025 - COPPER Commodity was up 11.3%

• Recent bullish movement in copper prices stemmed from tightening global supplies and uncertainty surrounding tariffs, leading traders to redirect shipments to the US in anticipation of potential import duties.
• Concerns about reduced demand from Chinese fabricators due to high prices contributed to a 2% decrease in copper prices.
• The potential implementation of a 10% levy on US copper imports and the widening price difference between Comex and LME contracts increased market volatility.
• Despite positive demand outlook in China and reduced trade tensions with the US providing some price support, analysts warned that any weakening in US demand or unmet tariff expectations could reverse the recent price rally swiftly.

31.06.2025 - COPPER Commodity was down 21.9%

• Copper futures plunged due to a recent decision to exclude refined copper from new tariffs applied by a prominent figure, leading to a significant decline in prices.
• Traders reacted by accelerating shipments to the US in anticipation of broader tariffs, resulting in a shift in copper flows and reduced demand.
• The exclusion of raw forms of copper like ore and concentrates from tariffs also influenced the market reaction, impacting sentiment adversely.
• Following this development, Copper hit an 8-week low, with prices dropping substantially by 20%, underlining the notable effect of the tariff exemption on the commodity's value.

30.06.2025 - COPPER Commodity was down 11.5%

• Copper prices experienced a bearish movement as concerns grew over the impending 50% US tariff on copper imports, set to begin on August 1.
• The uncertainty surrounding which copper products will be affected and the rush of vessels to reach US ports before the tariff deadline contributed to the downward pressure on copper prices.
• Despite the temporary gains driven by risk appetite and progress in US trade negotiations with major partners, the looming tariff threat overshadowed the market sentiment, leading to the bearish movement in copper prices.
• The market will likely continue to closely monitor developments in US trade policies and global trade flows to gauge the future direction of copper prices.

30.06.2025 - COPPER Commodity was down 18.5%

• The bearish movement in Copper prices can be attributed to a decision to exclude refined copper from an upcoming tariff package, causing a significant drop in futures prices.
• The uncertainty surrounding the specific copper products to be affected by the tariffs has led to market volatility and a rush to ship copper to the US before the deadline.
• An announcement about seeking a tariff exemption for copper imports provided some relief to the market, leading to a temporary rebound in prices, but concerns over a potential decline in US demand post-tariffs remain.
• The ongoing US-China trade tensions and the lack of clarity on trade agreements have added to market caution and contributed to the bearish sentiment in Copper prices.

30.03.2025 - COPPER Commodity was down 5.1%

• Copper futures plunged to $4.55 per pound from recent highs, driven by low demand and ample supply exacerbated by unwinding arbitrage traders in China.
• The unexpected contraction in Chinese manufacturing activity and escalating trade tensions between the US and China further weighed on copper prices.
• The threat of tariffs by the US, particularly on copper imports, added to the bearish sentiment and raised concerns about oversupply and limited smelting capacity.
• Despite a recent surge in copper prices due to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the US government, the market sentiment turned bearish again amid fears of a global economic slowdown and trade uncertainties.

31.06.2025 - COPPER Commodity was down 21.8%

• The bearish movement in Copper today can be attributed to a decision that excluded refined copper from an upcoming tariff package, leading to a significant drop in futures prices.
• Traders rushing to allocate metal into a specific country before the tariff deadline resulted in a surge in copper prices earlier in the week, followed by a sharp decline as concerns over reduced demand post-tariffs intensified.
• An announcement made by a country seeking a tariff exemption for copper imports provided a temporary boost to prices, but uncertainty surrounding the impending tariffs and the lack of clarity on affected products continue to weigh on the market.
• The overall market sentiment remains cautious as traders navigate through trade negotiations, tariff deadlines, and global trade tensions, contributing to the heightened volatility in copper prices.

28.06.2025 - COPPER Commodity was down 6.0%

• Uncertainty and instability in the copper market have arisen due to the potential implementation of a 50% tariff on copper imports into the US, causing a bearish trend.
• Demand for copper has experienced a temporary surge as ships rush to meet the tariff deadline, yet experts caution that there may be a sharp decline once this rush subsides, particularly impacting copper demand in the US.
• Ongoing US trade discussions with key partners such as the EU and China are being closely watched by the market, as any progress in these negotiations could result in significant changes in copper prices and global trade patterns.
• The tariff's objective to boost the domestic copper industry and lessen dependence on imports may strain the smelting and refining capabilities within the US, potentially posing challenges to the domestic supply chain and leading to further market instabilities.