S&P 500 Index ($SPX) Index Forecast: Down 0.6% Today

What is S&P 500 Index?

The S&P 500 index, also known as SPX, is a benchmark index that tracks the performance of 500 large-cap U.S. companies representing various sectors of the economy.

Why is S&P 500 Index going down?

SPX index is down 0.6% on Sep 23, 2025 17:40

• The bearish movement in the SPX today could be attributed to profit-taking by investors after a prolonged period of record highs in the stock market.
• The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate cut decision may have contributed to the bearish sentiment, as investors are cautious about the potential impact on economic growth and corporate earnings.
• Despite the recent positive earnings reports and the possibility of a 1999-style rally, investors may be adopting a wait-and-see approach until there is more clarity on the Fed's future rate cut projections and the overall economic outlook.
• President Trump's push for a 'big cut' from the Fed adds another layer of uncertainty, as market participants closely monitor the central bank's actions and their implications for the stock market.

SPX Price Chart

SPX Technical Analysis

SPX News

S&P 500: Could Forward Earnings and Fed Cuts Spark a 1999-Style Rally?

The stock market is experiencing record highs driven by better-than-expected earnings and the Fed's rate cut. Analysts draw parallels to the 1999 Tech Bubble, suggesting potential for a market rally followed by potential correction.

https://www.investing.com/analysis/could-forward-earnings-and-fed-cuts-spark-a-1999style-rally-200667251

S&P 500 Historically Returns Over 16% In Year Two Of Fed Easing Cycle, But Only If 'Recession Is Averted'

Historical data suggests the S&P 500 could return over 16% in the second year of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, contingent on avoiding a recession and maintaining economic growth.

https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/09/47732445/sp-500-historically-returns-over-16-in-year-two-of-fed-easing-cycle-but-only-if-recession-is-ave

Fed Preview: A Rate Cut Is Baked In, Will Trump Get The 'Big Cut' He Wants

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, with a 96.1% probability of the cut. President Trump has been calling for a rate reduction, and experts are watching for potential market impacts and future rate cut projections.

https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/previews/25/09/47701457/fed-preview-a-rate-cut-is-baked-in-will-trump-get-the-big-cut-he-wants

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S&P 500 Index Price History

18.08.2025 - SPX Index was up 0.0%

• The S&P 500 experienced a bullish trend today, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and solid corporate earnings.
• Historical data indicates that during the second year of a Fed easing cycle, the S&P 500 could potentially see significant returns, given the absence of a recession and sustained economic growth.
• President Trump's advocacy for a "big cut" in interest rates has impacted market sentiment, prompting experts to closely monitor the Fed's decisions and their potential effects on the market.
• Despite the market's record highs, investors are cautioned to be prudent and maintain disciplined portfolio management to mitigate risks amidst the ongoing economic uncertainties.

20.07.2025 - SPX Index was down 0.1%

• Despite housing market challenges, homebuilder stocks are surging, possibly drawing investor attention away from broader market indices like the SPX.
• Criticisms of Fed Chair Powell and concerns about the Fed's inflation target have introduced volatility, potentially impacting the recent downtrend in the SPX.
• Goldman Sachs' caution regarding the stock market response to Fed rate cuts may have tempered investor enthusiasm, influencing the index's downward movement.
• Technical analysis showing a slowdown in S&P 500 momentum, combined with the high valuation of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, likely encouraged profit-taking and a market pullback, including the SPX.

20.07.2025 - SPX Index was down 1.1%

• Criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for being 'backward-looking' and the call for potential rate cuts may have sparked concerns about the economy, leading to a sell-off in the market.
• Warnings that rate cuts may not lead to the expected stock market boom could have dampened investor sentiment, contributing to the bearish movement in the SPX.
• The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF trading near all-time highs might have triggered profit-taking by investors, causing a downward pressure on the index.
• Signs of momentum slowdown in the S&P 500 E-mini market could have added to the bearish sentiment, as traders might be cautious about the potential for limited follow-through buying and a trading range.

29.07.2025 - SPX Index was down 0.4%

• Market breadth figures reveal that only 59% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, hinting at possible economic risks influencing the bearish movement.
• Criticism from Senator Elizabeth Warren towards President Trump for removing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, along with concerns about political involvement in the Federal Reserve's autonomy, may have unsettled investors and contributed to the negative market sentiment.
• Notwithstanding today's decline, the Elliott Wave analysis suggests a continuation of bullish momentum and higher future targets, indicating long-term growth potential despite the ongoing downturn.

31.06.2025 - SPX Index was up 0.2%

• The S&P 500 may be losing momentum as indicated by bearish divergences and signs of potential market exhaustion.
• Technical indicators suggest a possible modest pullback or pause in the market, particularly in the 6100 range.
• Despite reaching new all-time highs and a decent earnings season performance, the index shows signs of potential stagnation and a slowdown in momentum.

17.08.2025 - SPX Index was up 0.2%

• Expectations for a 25 basis points interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have boosted market sentiment and contributed to the S&P 500's record-breaking performance.
• President Trump's advocacy for significant interest rate reductions has further fueled investor optimism and market excitement.
• Strong corporate earnings, anticipated rate cuts, and the promising performance of small-cap stocks have all played a role in driving the S&P 500 to unprecedented levels, suggesting a potential market rally.
• Despite the current positive market conditions, investors are urged to proceed with caution, highlighting the importance of disciplined portfolio management and capital preservation in the midst of potential market uncertainties.

02.08.2025 - SPX Index was down 1.1%

• The bearish movement in the SPX today could be attributed to the red flag raised by market breadth indicators, indicating potential economic risks and market concentration reminiscent of previous crashes.
• Despite a Risk-Love indicator hitting a 13-month high, signaling elevated investor risk appetite, the concerns over market breadth and concentration might have triggered profit-taking and selling pressure in the market.
• Warren Buffett's recommendation of investing in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund for long-term wealth creation contrasts with the current market sentiment, suggesting a cautious approach might be warranted amidst the heightened risk appetite.
• Senator Elizabeth Warren's criticism of President Trump's dismissal of a Federal Reserve Governor, raising concerns about political interference in the Fed's independence, could have added to the overall market uncertainty and contributed to the bearish movement in the SPX.

02.08.2025 - SPX Index was down 0.5%

• Warren Buffett's endorsement of investing in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund for long-term wealth creation contrasts with the current bearish market movement, indicating a potential short-term downturn.
• The comparison between lottery spending and stock market investing underscores the stability and growth potential of index funds, despite the market breadth indicators signaling economic risks and market concentration concerns.
• Senator Elizabeth Warren's criticism of President Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook adds to the market uncertainty, as concerns about political interference in the Federal Reserve's independence may have contributed to the bearish sentiment in the market.
• The resurgence of red flags reminiscent of past market crashes, such as low market breadth indicators and extreme market concentration, could be fueling investor caution and leading to the bearish movement in the S&P 500 index.

19.07.2025 - SPX Index was down 0.4%

• The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF reaching all-time highs with an 8.5% year-to-date gain may have led to profit-taking by investors, contributing to the bearish movement.
• The slowing momentum in the S&P 500 E-mini market after a recent breakout suggests that traders are cautious about the index's future performance, potentially leading to a temporary dip in prices.
• Despite the bearish movement, the overall market sentiment remains bullish, indicating that the current dip may be a short-term correction rather than a reversal of the upward trend.

22.07.2025 - SPX Index was up 0.5%

• The hawkish stance on inflation revealed in recent Federal Reserve minutes has reassured investors and contributed to the bullish movement of the SPX.
• Calls for Powell's resignation and criticism of the Fed's inflation target may have caused some uncertainty in the market, but the impact on the SPX seems limited.
• A rally in homebuilder stocks, despite challenges in the housing market, could have also boosted investor confidence in the overall market, including the SPX.
• The introduction of an AI-powered algorithmic trading system for S&P options may have attracted more traders to the market, potentially influencing the positive movement of the SPX.

12.07.2025 - SPX Index was up 0.3%

• CloudAlpha Capital Management significantly increased its holdings in Tesla, indicating growing confidence in the electric vehicle market despite challenges. This positive sentiment towards Tesla likely contributed to the overall bullish movement in the market.
• Analysis of Interactive Brokers' stock performance over the past 5 years, showing substantial growth, might have attracted investors to the broader market, including the S&P 500.
• The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF's potential for long-term wealth generation could have attracted more investors to the index, boosting its performance.
• Despite concerns about potential market reversals, overbought conditions, and high valuations, investors' focus on strong individual stock performances like Tesla and Interactive Brokers may have overshadowed these worries, leading to the bullish movement in the market.

23.08.2025 - SPX Index was down 0.6%

• The bearish movement in the SPX today could be attributed to profit-taking by investors after a prolonged period of record highs in the stock market.
• The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate cut decision may have contributed to the bearish sentiment, as investors are cautious about the potential impact on economic growth and corporate earnings.
• Despite the recent positive earnings reports and the possibility of a 1999-style rally, investors may be adopting a wait-and-see approach until there is more clarity on the Fed's future rate cut projections and the overall economic outlook.
• President Trump's push for a 'big cut' from the Fed adds another layer of uncertainty, as market participants closely monitor the central bank's actions and their implications for the stock market.