Marathon Petroleum Corporation ($MPC) Stock Forecast: Up 8.4% Today

What is Marathon Petroleum Corporation?

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a leading oil and gas company actively involved in the renewable fuels market. The company reported strong Q4 2025 earnings, surpassing expectations and highlighting robust operational performance.

Why is Marathon Petroleum Corporation going up?

MPC stock is up 8.4% on Feb 4, 2026 18:06

• MPC stock experienced a bullish movement due to exceeding Q4 2025 earnings estimates and reporting an adjusted EPS of $4.07, significantly above analyst projections.
• The increase in price targets by TD Cowen and Wells Fargo, along with a "buy" rating, further fueled investor confidence in MPC's growth potential.
• Despite facing challenges in the renewable diesel segment due to weak margins, MPC's strategic capital investments for 2026 and beyond, aimed at enhancing competitiveness and shareholder returns, have garnered positive market sentiment.
• The overall positive market response to MPC's strong earnings and strategic initiatives indicates investor optimism in the company's ability to capitalize on global demand for refined products and drive profitability.

MPC Price Chart

MPC Technical Analysis

MPC News

Marathon: Renewable diesel segment impacted by weak margins in Q4

Marathon Petroleum Corp. reported that its renewable diesel segment was impacted by weak margins during the fourth quarter of 2025. This information was released on February 4, 2026. The company is actively involved in the renewable fuels market, as indicated by its operational reports.

https://biodieselmagazine.com/articles/marathon-renewable-diesel-segment-impacted-by-weak-margins-in-q4

TD Cowen Raises Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) Price Target to $198.00

TD Cowen has increased its price target for Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) from $183.00 to $198.00, reiterating a "buy" rating for the oil and gas company. This new target suggests a potential upside of 5.86% from the stock's previous close. Other analysts also provided varying ratings and price objectives, with the company currently holding a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating and an average target price of $198.38.

https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/td-cowen-raises-marathon-petroleum-nysempc-price-target-to-19800-2026-02-04/

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: MPC) reported robust Q4 2025 earnings, surpassing expectations with an EPS of $4.07 against a forecast of $2.72. The company highlighted strong operational performance, including 105% margin capture and 94% refining utilization for the full year 2025, and articulated strategic capital investments for 2026 and beyond aimed at enhancing competitiveness and shareholder returns. Discussions covered sustained global demand for refined products, the strategic importance of sour crude processing capabilities, and significant investments in their Midstream segment (MPLX) to capitalize on natural gas and NGL growth.

https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/marathon-petroleum-corporation-nysempc-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript-1688548/

Marathon Petroleum stock price target raised to $217 by Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo has increased its price target for Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) to $217 from $213, while maintaining an Overweight rating. This adjustment comes after Marathon Petroleum exceeded Q4 2025 earnings estimates, reporting adjusted EPS of $4.07, significantly above analyst projections. The company's refining segment also outperformed expectations, while its midstream and renewable diesel segments had mixed results.

https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/marathon-petroleum-stock-price-target-raised-to-217-by-wells-fargo-93CH-4484316

Phillips 66 Refocuses Portfolio As Lower Crude Supports Refining Margins

Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) is divesting non-core assets to free up capital for strategic reinvestments and shareholder returns, leveraging lower crude prices to boost refining margins. This move aims to enhance the company's financial discipline and integrate its diverse operations across refining, midstream, chemicals, and renewables. Investors should monitor how effectively Phillips 66 reallocates capital from these divestments and sustains profitability amid changing market conditions.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/energy/nyse-psx/phillips-66/news/phillips-66-refocuses-portfolio-as-lower-crude-supports-refi/amp

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Marathon Petroleum Corporation Price History

22.09.2025 - MPC Stock was up 2.9%

• The bullish movement in Marathon Petroleum's stock today could be attributed to the positive sentiment surrounding the company's dividend prospects.
• Investors may have been encouraged by the potential for consistent returns through dividends, leading to increased buying activity and driving the stock price higher.
• The market's reaction suggests that investors view Marathon Petroleum as a strong dividend stock, indicating confidence in the company's financial stability and future growth prospects.
• Overall, the bullish movement in MPC's stock today could be a reflection of investors' optimism regarding the company's dividend yield and its potential as an attractive investment opportunity in the current market environment.

04.01.2026 - MPC Stock was up 8.4%

• MPC stock experienced a bullish movement due to exceeding Q4 2025 earnings estimates and reporting an adjusted EPS of $4.07, significantly above analyst projections.
• The increase in price targets by TD Cowen and Wells Fargo, along with a "buy" rating, further fueled investor confidence in MPC's growth potential.
• Despite facing challenges in the renewable diesel segment due to weak margins, MPC's strategic capital investments for 2026 and beyond, aimed at enhancing competitiveness and shareholder returns, have garnered positive market sentiment.
• The overall positive market response to MPC's strong earnings and strategic initiatives indicates investor optimism in the company's ability to capitalize on global demand for refined products and drive profitability.

04.01.2026 - MPC Stock was up 8.4%

• Raised Marathon Petroleum's price target to $198.00, indicating a potential upside of 5.86% from the previous close, reinforcing a positive outlook for the company.
• Reported robust Q4 2025 earnings, surpassing expectations with an EPS of $4.07, showcasing strong operational performance and strategic capital investments for future competitiveness.
• Also increased the price target for Marathon Petroleum to $217, following the company's impressive earnings report, highlighting the positive sentiment among analysts towards the stock.
• The focus on divesting non-core assets by Phillips 66 to boost refining margins amidst lower crude prices could have positively influenced the overall sentiment in the oil and gas sector, potentially contributing to Marathon Petroleum's bullish movement.

03.01.2026 - MPC Stock was up 4.6%

• Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) is a leading American petroleum refining, marketing, and transportation company.
• The company saw a strong bullish movement today.
• The surge in MPC shares is linked to the company's impressive Q4 earnings beat, with revenue of $33.42 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.07, surpassing analyst expectations.
• Mention of the ability to process Venezuelan crude at a competitive price might have positively influenced MPC.
• Jones Financial Companies Lllp increasing its stake in MPC by 6.8% and the company's strong financial performance for the fourth quarter further supported the bullish sentiment surrounding Marathon Petroleum Corp.

05.00.2026 - MPC Stock was down 1.0%

• Valero Energy Corp (VLO) faced a decline in share price following a recent U.S. action in Venezuela, which disrupted the country's oil exports. This disruption impacted Valero and other refiners that rely on heavy crude oil.
• The ongoing export disruption could potentially impact Valero's profit margins and crack spreads, prompting concerns among investors and leading to a downward trend in the stock price.
• Geopolitical uncertainties and market reactions to headline news have further contributed to the negative outlook on Valero's stock. This emphasizes the importance of monitoring global events for energy companies.
• Despite Valero's focus on renewable energy and past positive performance, the recent downward movement in the stock highlights the exposure of energy companies to external disruptions and geopolitical tensions.

04.10.2025 - MPC Stock was down 6.2%

• Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock fell after reporting mixed third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with revenue slightly up but missing earnings estimates.
• The market reacted negatively to the earnings miss, causing a bearish movement in the stock price.
• Despite the recent downturn, Marathon Petroleum has historically outperformed the market over the past decade, showcasing its long-term growth potential.
• Investors should closely monitor future earnings reports and company performance to gauge the stock's trajectory in the volatile energy sector.

04.10.2025 - MPC Stock was down 9.1%

• Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock experienced a bearish movement today.
• The company reported mixed third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with revenue slightly exceeding analyst estimates.
• Despite being positioned to deliver upbeat Q3 earnings, the stock fell, possibly due to investors' reactions to the results not meeting expectations.
• The market movement could also be influenced by broader industry trends and investor sentiment towards energy stocks in general.

08.00.2026 - MPC Stock was up 5.1%

• MPC stock experienced a strong bullish movement today.
• The bullish trend can be attributed to the positive market sentiment surrounding the refining sector, particularly influenced by Valero Energy's strategic decisions and the speculation around Venezuelan oil imports.
• The announcement of Valero Energy's plan to idle the Benicia refinery while maintaining supply to Northern California via imports and inventories likely boosted investor confidence in the sector.
• Additionally, the increased oil shipments by Chevron from Venezuela, making it the sole Western exporter after the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro, could have contributed to the bullish momentum in the refining industry, including MPC.

03.01.2026 - MPC Stock was up 1.0%

• Marathon Petroleum Corp reported impressive Q4 2025 financial results, surpassing analyst expectations with $33.42 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $4.07. This strong performance was driven by a favorable refining margin environment and effective operations, leading to a notable surge in shares.
• The company's solid financial performance and exceeding profit of $1.54 billion in the fourth quarter, along with a dividend declaration of $1.00, likely contributed to investor confidence and drove the bullish movement in the stock.
• Institutional investor increasing its stake in Marathon Petroleum Corporation by 6.8% and the company's positive outlook with a "Moderate Buy" rating from analysts further added to the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock.
• Marathon Petroleum's focus on capital spending in refinery and midstream investments for 2026, as well as its strong full-year results, showcase the company's resilience and strategic growth initiatives, reinforcing investor optimism and driving the bullish market movement.

22.07.2025 - MPC Stock was up 3.4%

• Marathon Petroleum has exceeded the market performance in the last ten years, with an average annual return of 14.15%.
• The company presently has a market capitalization of $49.97 billion.
• The strong bullish movement in MPC's stock today may be linked to its consistent robust performance and the optimistic market sentiment towards the energy sector.

20.10.2025 - MPC Stock was down 1.0%

• The increase in short interest suggests a growing number of investors are anticipating a decrease in the stock's price, which is exerting downward pressure on MPC's share value.
• The uptick in short interest may stem from concerns about the company's financial performance, industry dynamics, or broader market conditions, fueling the bearish trend in the stock.
• Market participants seem to be responding to the pessimistic outlook surrounding MPC, possibly influenced by factors like weakening demand for petroleum products, regulatory hurdles, or general economic uncertainties, all contributing to the negative market sentiment.

05.07.2025 - MPC Stock was down 1.2%

• MPC stock saw a significant decline of -2.65% in a single trading day.
• The second-quarter earnings of MPC are expected to have been impacted by refinery costs and weak product prices, potentially offsetting gains from midstream operations and exports.
• Investors appeared to react to an underwhelming performance outlook for MPC in Q2, which resulted in a notable drop in the stock price.
• The market's response indicates that worries about MPC's financial performance and industry obstacles influenced investor sentiment, contributing to the bearish movement in the stock price.