Crude Oil ($CRUDE) Commodity Forecast: Up 3.9% Today

What is Crude Oil?

Crude oil prices displayed a strong bullish movement, witnessing a significant increase.

Why is Crude Oil going up?

CRUDE commodity is up 3.9% on Jul 29, 2025 17:46

• The surge in crude oil prices is linked to President Trump's recent announcement of a shortened deadline for Russia to secure a peace agreement with Ukraine, leading to apprehensions regarding a potential constraint in global oil availability.
• Positive sentiment surrounding the US-EU trade agreement and prospects of trade deals with Japan and other nations also contributed to the price upsurge.
• Additionally, market optimism was fueled by a more substantial decline in crude inventories than anticipated and indications of advancements in US trade discussions, alleviating concerns regarding future oil demand.
• Notwithstanding these favorable developments, underlying worries persist about long-term factors such as apprehensions about decelerated global growth due to trade uncertainties and the likelihood of oversupply if OPEC+ proceeds with raising its production target.

CRUDE Price Chart

CRUDE Technical Analysis

CRUDE News

Oil Rises on Shorter US Deadline for Russia

WTI crude oil futures climbed to around $66.8 per barrel on Tuesday, hitting a more than one-week high amid renewed concerns of tighter global oil supplies after President Donald Trump cuts deadline for Russia to reach Ukraine peace deal. On Monday, Trump said Russia now has about 10 to 12 days to agree to a ceasefire or face potential “secondary sanctions”, shortening the 50-day deadline he suggested earlier this month. This follows new EU sanctions package on Moscow, including a lower price cap on Russian oil, additional banking restrictions, and a ban on a large Indian oil refinery. Further supporting prices, the US and EU agreed on Sunday to a broad-brush trade deal that sets a 15% tariff on most European goods. This comes after recent trade announcements—including a deal with Japan—alleviating fears that tariffs could hurt global economic growth and energy demand. Investors are now eyeing the ongoing US-China talks, with expectations for another 90-day extension on tariff pause.

Oil Rises by Over 2%

WTI crude oil futures rose over 2% to $66.7 per barrel on Monday, as optimism grew from a US-EU trade deal and fresh comments from President Trump on Ukraine. Trump said the EU agreed to buy $750 billion in US energy, though details remain unclear. He also announced a new 10 to 12-day deadline for Russia to agree to a Ukraine ceasefire, from a previously 50-day deadline, expressing frustration that Putin hadn’t already done so. Previously, Trump warned of 100% tariffs on Russia if no truce is reached. While this boosted oil prices, longer-term concerns remain. Trump’s trade threats have fueled fears of slower global growth, which could hurt energy demand. At the same time, OPEC+ is expected to raise its production target again, raising the risk of oversupply. Meanwhile, US and Chinese officials are meeting to discuss trade, with signs they may extend their tariff truce.

WTI Falls to 3-Week Low

WTI crude futures slid 1.3% to settle at $65.2 per barrel on Friday, marking its lowest close since June 30 as concerns over weakening economic signals from the US and China pressured prices. For the week, WTI declined about 3%, weighed by signs of growing global supply and a slowdown in business investment. Still, optimism around potential US trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and others helped limit losses, as such deals could eventually support global growth and oil demand. The US is also preparing to allow Chevron and other firms to resume limited operations in Venezuela, which could boost crude exports by over 200K barrels per day and ease supply tightness for heavier grades. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to raise output when it meets Monday, with the group looking to regain market share as summer demand absorbs extra barrels. In the US, oil and gas rig counts continued to decline, falling for the 12th time in 13 weeks, suggesting potential softness in future domestic production.

Oil Retreats on Venezuelan Supply

WTI crude futures fell over 1% toward $65 per barrel on Friday, erasing gains from previous session as the prospect of increased oil supply from Venezuela pressured prices. The United States is preparing to allow partners of Venezuela’s state-run PDVSA, including Chevron, to operate with limitations, potentially boosting Venezuelan exports by over 200,000 barrels per day. This added supply could ease tightness in the heavier crude market, which would benefit US refiners. At the same time, oil prices found some support earlier in the week from disruptions to exports through the Black Sea and the Turkish port of Ceyhan, although flows have since resumed. Hopes for new trade agreements between the US and partners like Japan and the EU also added some optimism to the market. However, with the OPEC+ meeting approaching and no major policy shifts expected, the outlook for WTI remains steady but cautious.

WTI Oil Halts 4-Day Decline

WTI crude oil futures gained 1.2% to settle at $66 per barrel on Thursday, snapping a four-day losing streak, as optimism around US trade negotiations and a sharper-than-expected drop in crude inventories lifted market sentiment. Risk appetite improved after reports that the US and EU are progressing toward a trade deal that would introduce a 15% tariff on most EU goods, following a similar agreement with Japan. Hopes that easing trade tensions will support global economic growth helped alleviate concerns about future oil demand. On the supply front, US crude inventories dropped by 3.2 million barrels last week, more than double analysts' expectations, indicating strong demand. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remained high as Russia temporarily halted oil exports from Black Sea ports and the US and EU weighed additional sanctions targeting Russian energy.

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Crude Oil Price History

13.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 4.3%

• Crude oil prices surged today as tensions between the US and Iran escalated, sparking fears of supply disruptions and supporting bullish sentiment in the market.
• Optimism surrounding US-China trade talks also contributed to the price increase, with hopes for stronger energy demand from the world's two largest economies.
• The agreement between the US and China, along with the potential easing of trade tensions, added to the positive outlook for oil demand, despite concerns about the impact of OPEC+ increasing output.
• Additionally, the drawdown in US crude inventories and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts further bolstered confidence in oil demand and economic growth, driving the bullish movement in the crude oil market today.

13.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 9.9%

• The surge in oil prices was primarily driven by Israel's preemptive strike on Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East and raising concerns about potential supply disruptions.
• Additional support came from the US preparing for a partial evacuation of personnel in the region, softer US inflation data reinforcing expectations of Fed rate cuts, and EIA data showing a significant decline in US crude stocks, indicating robust demand.
• The ongoing US-Iran tensions, coupled with trade optimism following agreements between the US and China, have added layers of uncertainty and optimism to the market, influencing the bullish movement in crude oil prices.
• While OPEC+ plans to increase output, the drawdown in US crude inventories and the potential impact of geopolitical events on supply chains continue to shape the bullish sentiment in the oil market.

13.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 6.6%

• The rise in crude oil prices was driven by Israel's actions against Iran, prompting concerns about potential disruptions in the global oil supply chain, particularly in the region near the Strait of Hormuz.
• Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, including the US's preparations for a partial personnel evacuation from the Middle East and Iran's retaliatory threats, supported oil prices amidst the prevailing market instability.
• Favorable demand indicators, such as the considerable decline in US crude inventories and the anticipated economic stimulation from potential Fed rate cuts leading to increased oil consumption, further strengthened the positive outlook for crude oil.
• Despite some uncertainties arising from the lingering US-China trade tensions and the planned production increase by OPEC+ in July, the immediate market response remained optimistic, fueling the upward trajectory of oil prices.

29.06.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 3.9%

• The surge in crude oil prices is linked to President Trump's recent announcement of a shortened deadline for Russia to secure a peace agreement with Ukraine, leading to apprehensions regarding a potential constraint in global oil availability.
• Positive sentiment surrounding the US-EU trade agreement and prospects of trade deals with Japan and other nations also contributed to the price upsurge.
• Additionally, market optimism was fueled by a more substantial decline in crude inventories than anticipated and indications of advancements in US trade discussions, alleviating concerns regarding future oil demand.
• Notwithstanding these favorable developments, underlying worries persist about long-term factors such as apprehensions about decelerated global growth due to trade uncertainties and the likelihood of oversupply if OPEC+ proceeds with raising its production target.

17.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.1%

• The bullish movement in Crude Oil prices today was primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, leading to concerns about potential disruptions in energy flows and trade routes.
• US President Donald Trump's call for the evacuation of Tehran and Israel's intensified airstrikes on Iran's capital contributed to market volatility, pushing oil prices higher.
• Signals of de-escalation from Iran and a willingness to resume nuclear negotiations helped ease market concerns, leading to a surge in oil prices as investors unwound risk-off positions.
• The fluctuating oil prices reflect the market's sensitivity to geopolitical developments and the potential impact on global oil supply chains, particularly through critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.

23.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 13.7%

• A 7% drop in Crude Oil prices followed Iran's missile attack on a US airbase in Qatar, which resulted in no casualties and relieved immediate escalation concerns.
• The market showed confidence in oil supply continuity as tankers proceeded through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical point for global oil shipment.
• President Trump's decision to hold off on potential US military action against Iran fostered hopes for diplomatic talks, contributing to the negative market sentiment for oil.
• Even with ongoing geopolitical turmoil and increasing conflicts between Israel and Iran, reports of Iran sustaining high levels of crude exports further pressured oil prices downward.

23.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 10.2%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil prices today can be attributed to the softening concerns regarding potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran refrains from targeting oil flows in retaliation to US strikes.
• Despite escalating tensions between Iran, Israel, and the US, the market reassessed the immediate risk of supply disruptions, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices.
• Additionally, the market may have reacted to reports of Iran maintaining its crude exports at high levels, along with a sharper-than-expected drop in US crude inventories, indicating a potential oversupply situation.
• Overall, the bearish movement in Crude Oil today reflects a combination of geopolitical developments, supply dynamics, and market sentiment adjustments, leading to a notable shift in prices.

17.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.1%

• The bullish movement in Crude Oil is linked to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, specifically Israel's strikes on Iran's assets, raising concerns about a broader regional war and potential supply disruptions.
• Interest from Iran in de-escalating tensions and resuming nuclear negotiations has led to fluctuations in oil prices, with market sentiment changing based on the perceived likelihood of a prolonged conflict.
• The Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil trade, remains a significant concern. Any threats of closure by Iran could pose a risk to oil prices and market stability.
• Geopolitical uncertainties, as well as factors like production quotas by OPEC+ and potential tariffs from the U.S., are contributing to the volatility in oil prices as traders navigate through the complexities of global events impacting the energy market.

23.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 6.4%

• The decline in Crude Oil today can be linked to:
• President Trump's choice to delay any likely US military action against Iran, lessening immediate worries of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
• Intensified strikes by Israel on key targets in Iran, heightening tensions without an immediate outbreak of conflict.
• Profit-taking by investors as the immediate supply shock risk decreased with the postponement of a US airstrike on Iran.
• Indeterminate economic policies in the US pushing investors away from the dollar, bolstering commodities like oil traded in that currency.

16.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.8%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil prices today can be attributed to the easing of tensions between Israel and Iran, as investors scaled back risk-off trades amid signs that the conflict may not escalate further.
• The belief that the tensions are likely to remain contained, coupled with Iran's oil infrastructure remaining untouched, contributed to the market retreat.
• Despite concerns over potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical risks, the market sentiment shifted towards a more stable outlook, leading to the bearish movement in Crude Oil prices.
• It is essential for traders to monitor geopolitical developments closely, as any escalation in tensions or disruptions to key oil supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz could quickly reverse the current market trend.

24.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 11.3%

• The ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran by President Trump led to a drop in oil prices, as fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East eased.
• The lack of casualties in Iran's missile strike on a US airbase in Qatar contributed to the bearish movement, signaling a potential de-escalation in Middle East tensions.
• Despite the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, reports of Iran maintaining crude exports at high levels added pressure on oil prices.
• The market's reaction to recent developments suggests that investors are closely monitoring geopolitical dynamics in the region, balancing concerns of supply disruptions with signs of potential peace negotiations.

24.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 10.6%

• Crude oil experienced a bearish movement today, with prices dropping significantly.
• The market movement was primarily driven by the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, easing concerns over potential oil supply disruptions in the Middle East.
• The de-escalation of tensions following Iran's missile strike on a US airbase in Qatar, which resulted in no casualties, contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices.
• Despite the temporary relief in the market, the situation remains fragile, with uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire and the possibility of Iran attempting to close the vital chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz.