Crude Oil ($CRUDE) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.0% Today

What is Crude Oil?

Crude Oil is a crucial commodity in the global market, with its price movements influenced by supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators.

Why is Crude Oil going down?

CRUDE commodity is down 5.0% on May 1, 2025 9:45

• The sharp bearish movement in Crude Oil prices can be attributed to:
• Growing concerns over a global supply glut and weakening demand, worsened by signals from Saudi Arabia to boost production and possible output increases by OPEC+ members.
• Trade tensions between the US and China, coupled with a contraction in the US economy in the first quarter and a decline in consumer confidence, have further weakened the demand outlook.
• News of a possible ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the potential rise in OPEC+ output have also fueled worries about oversupply, pushing oil prices down.
• Uncertainty surrounding US-China trade discussions and the lack of clarity on U.S.-Iranian nuclear talks have also contributed to the negative sentiment in the market.

CRUDE Price Chart

CRUDE Technical Analysis

CRUDE News

Oil Posts Sharpest Monthly Drop Since 2021

WTI crude oil futures sank 3.7% to settle at $58.20 per barrel on Wednesday, posting their sharpest monthly drop since late 2021 with an 18% decline amid mounting concerns over a global supply glut and weakening demand. Prices were pressured by Saudi Arabia’s signal to increase production and recapture market share, while OPEC+ is reportedly weighing additional output hikes at its May 5 meeting, stoking fears of a renewed price war. Trade tensions between the US and China further clouded the demand outlook, compounded by a first-quarter contraction in the US economy and a sharp drop in consumer confidence. Despite the bearish sentiment, a surprise drawdown in US crude inventories—down 2.7 million barrels last week—helped limit further losses.

Oil Falls for 2nd Session

WTI crude oil futures dropped over 2% to below $61 per barrel, a two-week low, extending a 1.5% loss in the previous session, as global trade tensions and weak US data dampened the demand outlook. Crude is on track for its steepest monthly decline since 2021, down 15% in April, as fears grow that President Trump’s escalating tariffs could push the global economy into recession. US consumer confidence slumped, adding to signs of economic strain. Meanwhile, OPEC+ may accelerate its planned output hikes at its May 5 meeting, with Saudi Arabia and others expected to boost supply. Kazakhstan increased oil exports by 7% year-on-year to 1.63 million barrels per day in Q1, helped by rising flows through the Caspian pipeline. Also, hopes for a return of Iranian oil have also resurfaced amid progress in nuclear talks and a temporary truce in Russia’s war on Ukraine was announced, set to begin May 8.

Oil Slips for 2nd Day

WTI crude oil futures fell to around $61.8 per barrel on Tuesday, marking a second consecutive session of losses amid a lack of clarity on U.S.-China trade talks and prospects of oversupply. On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that it is “up to China” to de-escalate trade tensions with the U.S., amid confusion about whether formal negotiations are currently underway. The ongoing trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies has fueled fears of a global economic slowdown, which would directly weigh on energy demand. Adding further pressure, some OPEC+ members are expected to suggest an acceleration of output hikes during their meeting on May 5, potentially extending production increases for a second straight month. Investors are also watching U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations, which could lead to more supply if an agreement is reached and sanctions are eased.

WTI Crude Oil Tumbles on Supply Glut

WTI crude futures tumbled over 2% to below $62 per barrel on Monday, as tariff-driven growth concerns threatened to dampen fuel consumption, while supply surged. OPEC+ surprised markets by agreeing to add roughly 411,000 barrels per day in May—undoing much of last year’s cuts—and U.S. shale output has held near a record 13.5 million barrels per day amid rising rig counts. Discounted barrels from Iran and Russia have further swelled Asian inventories, compounding the glut. Though President Trump’s recent tariff concessions and Beijing’s selective exemptions, alongside tentative U.S.–Iran nuclear talks have eased trade-war fears, they’ve done little to absorb this excess supply. Meanwhile, senior Trump administration officials urged Russia and Ukraine to advance peace talks after a one-on-one meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Oil Set for Weekly Loss

WTI crude oil futures traded around $63 per barrel on Friday, heading for a weekly loss amid oversupply concerns driven by a potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war and the prospect of increased OPEC+ output. Reports indicated that the US and Russia are making progress toward ending the war, though some terms remain unresolved. A ceasefire and easing of sanctions could boost Russian oil supply to global markets. Meanwhile, several OPEC+ members are expected to push for a second consecutive month of accelerated output hikes in June. Kazakhstan, a key ally, stated it cannot cut production at its major oil fields and will prioritize national interests when setting output levels. Adding further pressure, the demand outlook remains bearish due to ongoing uncertainty in trade relations between China and the US, the world’s two largest oil consumers. Cushioning some losses, the US imposed new restrictions earlier in the week on a key Iranian figure involved in LPG and crude shipping.

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Crude Oil Price History

03.03.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 7.2%

• Oil prices dropped by over 6% due to OPEC+ countries increasing oil production by a significant margin, causing oversupply concerns and driving prices down.
• President Trump's new tariffs raised fears of a global trade war, which could dampen economic growth and reduce fuel demand, further pushing oil prices lower.
• A surge in US crude inventories, fueled by increased Canadian imports, contributed to the bearish sentiment and heightened concerns about oversupply.
• Escalating trade disputes, geopolitical tensions, and supply uncertainties continue to make the oil market volatile, prompting caution among investors who are awaiting insights from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.

10.03.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.6%

• Today's bullish movement in Crude Oil can be attributed to the following factors:
• The de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and other countries, which has eased concerns about a global recession and improved the outlook for energy demand.
• President Trump's decision to suspend reciprocal tariffs for most countries over the next 90 days, calming markets and boosting risk appetite.
• The larger-than-expected draw in gasoline and distillate inventories reported in the latest EIA report, offsetting concerns about rising crude stockpiles.
• OPEC+ officials hinting at potential delays to previously announced production increases, which helped alleviate oversupply worries and supported the rebound in oil prices.

04.03.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.5%

• Crude Oil hit a 4-week low of $65.76 per barrel, marking a 0.71% loss over the past 4 weeks and a 24.25% decrease in the last 12 months.
• The bearish trend was intensified by an unexpected announcement of an output hike by eight countries, leading to a more than planned increase in production, causing a 6% drop in oil prices.
• An announcement of new tariffs, sparking fears of a global trade war and potential economic slowdown, further contributed to the decline in oil prices.
• Additionally, higher-than-expected US tariffs and concerns about escalating trade disputes dampening global energy demand added to the negative sentiment in the oil market.

01.04.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.0%

• The sharp bearish movement in Crude Oil prices can be attributed to:
• Growing concerns over a global supply glut and weakening demand, worsened by signals from Saudi Arabia to boost production and possible output increases by OPEC+ members.
• Trade tensions between the US and China, coupled with a contraction in the US economy in the first quarter and a decline in consumer confidence, have further weakened the demand outlook.
• News of a possible ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the potential rise in OPEC+ output have also fueled worries about oversupply, pushing oil prices down.
• Uncertainty surrounding US-China trade discussions and the lack of clarity on U.S.-Iranian nuclear talks have also contributed to the negative sentiment in the market.

09.03.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 8.8%

• Crude oil experienced a strong bearish movement today, dropping significantly in value.
• The market movement can be attributed to escalating trade tensions between major economies, resulting in fears of reduced energy demand and a global economic slowdown.
• Additionally, oil production increased at a faster pace than expected, leading to concerns about oversupply in the market.
• The combination of weakening demand outlooks, rising production levels, and geopolitical uncertainties has contributed to the downward pressure on crude oil prices.

09.03.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 6.0%

• The increase in crude oil prices was influenced by reduced recession fears and a brighter energy demand outlook.
• President Trump's announcement of suspending reciprocal tariffs for most countries for 90 days eased market concerns and boosted risk appetite, contributing to the oil price surge.
• Moreover, a more significant than anticipated decline in gasoline and distillate inventories, along with indications of potential delays in OPEC+ production hikes, helped counter oversupply worries and added to the rise in oil prices.
• Overall, the optimistic market sentiment, stemming from improved trade relations and supply-demand factors, drove the robust bullish movement in crude oil prices today.

09.03.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 6.3%

• Crude Oil prices declined significantly due to fears of a global recession linked to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, with a confirmed increase in tariffs on Chinese imports.
• Market sentiment was further affected by doubts about a trade war de-escalation, as reports of potential tariff delays were proven false, leading to increased volatility and downward pressure on oil prices.
• Factors such as OPEC+'s planned output increase, Saudi Arabia's price cuts, and rising geopolitical tensions, including talks with Iran, contributed to the negative outlook for Crude Oil prices.
• Uncertainty surrounding the trade war and its potential impact on global growth and energy demand continues to impact investor confidence, pushing Crude Oil to its lowest levels in years.

08.03.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.6%

• Crude oil prices experienced a significant bearish movement, dropping to a 4-year low, primarily driven by escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
• President Trump's confirmation of increased tariffs on China, along with the threat of additional tariffs, raised concerns about a global recession and dampened expectations for energy demand.
• The market sentiment was further weakened by OPEC+'s planned output increase, Saudi Arabia's price cuts, and rising geopolitical tensions, contributing to the downward pressure on oil prices.
• The lack of progress in trade talks, coupled with fears of a deepening trade war and its potential impact on global growth, led investors to reassess the energy demand outlook, resulting in the bearish movement of crude oil prices.

04.03.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 6.2%

• Crude oil prices plunged to a 3-year low of $62 per barrel, the lowest level since August 2021, primarily due to fears surrounding a global economic slowdown and weakening oil demand, exacerbated by escalating trade tensions.
• The decision by OPEC+ to ramp up output by 411,000 barrels per day in May, significantly higher than the initial target, added to the supply-side pressures, further contributing to the bearish sentiment in the market.
• The impending 34% tariff on U.S. goods by China, along with ongoing trade disputes, continued to weigh heavily on investor sentiment, highlighting the vulnerability of oil prices to geopolitical uncertainties and trade war concerns.
• With oil on track for nearly a 10% decline for the week, marking its steepest drop in six months, the combination of increased supply levels and trade war fears has significantly impacted the commodity's value, pushing it to a 23-month low.

04.03.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 8.8%

• Crude Oil prices dropped by over 6% following an unforeseen increase in oil production by OPEC, exceeding the planned amount. This surplus raised concerns about market oversaturation and drove prices down.
• The announcement of new tariffs by President Trump worsened the situation, sparking fears of a global trade conflict that could impact economic growth and reduce fuel demand, contributing to the downward trend in oil prices.
• An unexpected rise in US crude inventories, driven by increased Canadian imports, added to the negative sentiment. This surge raised concerns about excess supply in the market, further pushing prices down.
• Russia's move to tighten export restrictions by suspending loadings from crucial ports also played a part in the pessimistic outlook for oil prices. Investors were awaiting information from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting for clarity on global supply conditions.

04.03.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 7.6%

• OPEC+ decision to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far exceeding the initial target, contributed to the oversupply concerns, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices.
• Rising global trade tensions, particularly the announcement of new tariffs by the U.S. and China, added pressure on oil prices as fears of a potential trade war loomed, impacting economic growth and fuel demand outlook.
• The unexpected surge in U.S. crude inventories by 6.2 million barrels, contrary to market expectations, further exacerbated the bearish sentiment in the oil market, reflecting oversupply issues and weakening demand dynamics.
• The combination of increased production levels, trade uncertainties, and inventory build-up painted a bleak picture for Crude Oil, pushing it to a 23-month low and marking a substantial decline over the past weeks, highlighting the challenges faced by the oil industry in the current market environment.

07.03.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.3%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil prices can be attributed to the fears surrounding the escalating trade war between major economies, particularly the U.S. and China. The anticipation of a 34% tariff on U.S. goods by China has heightened concerns about a global economic slowdown and weakened oil demand.
• The decision by OPEC+ to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, exceeding the initial target, has added to the oversupply concerns in the market, putting further downward pressure on oil prices.
• The combination of rising global trade tensions, increased oil supply, and fears of a recession has created a perfect storm for the decline in Crude Oil prices, leading to the commodity hitting a 23-month low. Investors are closely monitoring these factors to gauge the future direction of the oil market amidst the current uncertainties.