Crude Oil ($CRUDE) Commodity Forecast: Down 0.2% Today

What is Crude Oil?

Crude Oil is a key commodity in the global market, with its price movements heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions, supply and demand dynamics, and economic indicators. Today, the market saw a strong bearish movement in Crude Oil prices.

Why is Crude Oil going down?

CRUDE commodity is down 0.2% on Sep 2, 2025 13:00

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil prices today can be attributed to a combination of factors:
• Weaker US demand and concerns over the end of the summer driving season have weighed on prices, indicating a potential slowdown in consumption.
• Reports of a potential ceasefire in Ukraine have eased tensions and expectations of supply disruptions, leading to a downward pressure on prices.
• Rising output from OPEC+ and other producers, along with the possibility of a global supply surplus by year-end, have added to the bearish sentiment in the market.
• Geopolitical factors, such as India's continued purchases of Russian oil despite US tariff threats, have also contributed to the overall uncertainty and downward pressure on prices.

CRUDE Price Chart

CRUDE Technical Analysis

CRUDE News

WTI Drops, Posts First Monthly Loss in 4 Months

WTI crude oil futures fell 0.9% to settle at $64 per barrel on Friday, as traders weighed weaker US demand and the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine. Attention is also on next week’s OPEC+ meeting, with accelerated output increases from the group raising the global supply outlook. However, these supply gains have yet to fully reach the US market, where the summer driving season is ending, fueling concerns over demand. Prices had risen earlier in the week following Ukrainian attacks on Russian export terminals, but reports of potential ceasefire talks eased some of that pressure. US crude inventories showed larger-than-expected draws, indicating ongoing demand in industrial and freight sectors. Geopolitical factors, including India’s continued purchases of Russian oil despite US tariff threats, remain under close scrutiny. The US benchmark posted its second consecutive weekly gain, although the benchmark fell about 7% over the month, marking its first monthly drop in four months.

WTI Crude Gains as Peace Deal Prospects Fade

WTI crude futures rose 0.7% to settle at $64.6 per barrel on Thursday, reversing earlier losses as the fading prospect of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal reduced expectations of additional Russian supply reaching global markets. Hopes for eased restrictions on Moscow’s crude exports dimmed further while traders awaited remarks from President Trump that could signal stricter sanctions. At the same time, Ukraine has intensified drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, disrupting exports and adding to uncertainty. The US has also pressed India to scale back Russian purchases after Washington doubled its import levy to 50%. Still, the broader outlook for crude remains bearish, with rising output from OPEC+ and other producers expected to push the market into surplus by year-end. Light trading ahead of the US Labor Day holiday contributed to volatile intraday moves.

Oil Falls on Soft US Demand Outlook

WTI crude futures slipped to around $63.8 per barrel on Thursday, paring a 1% gain from the prior session, as investors weighed softening US fuel demand with the summer driving season nearing its end, while monitoring potential supply shifts as India faces steep US tariffs. US crude stockpiles fell by 2.39 million barrels to 418.3 million, above forecasts, while Cushing inventories dropped by 838,000 barrels, reflecting firm demand ahead of Labor Day. Still, analysts noted the holiday often signals the end of peak driving and weaker consumption. Traders also monitored India’s response to US pressure to curb Russian oil imports after tariff hikes, though analysts expect India to keep buying in the near term, limiting the global impact. Losses were partly offset by intensified Russia-Ukraine attacks on energy infrastructure and optimism over a potential US rate cut to support demand.

Oil Rebounds after EIA Data

WTI crude oil futures rose to $63.8 a barrel on Wednesday, recovering from Tuesday’s 2.4% drop, after US government data pointed to stronger-than-expected inventory declines. Crude stockpiles fell by 2.39 million barrels to 418.3 million, more than markets had anticipated, while supplies at the key Cushing hub were down by 838,000 barrels. Gasoline reserves shrank by 1.2 million barrels, less than expected, and distillates fell 1.8 million, defying forecasts for an increase. The figures suggest demand for fuel remains firm despite concerns that tariffs could slow consumption in the months ahead. Adding pressure to the trade outlook, Washington raised duties on Indian imports to 50%, the steepest US tariff applied to an Asian nation, in response to New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil. Even so, Indian refiners indicated they would maintain their buying patterns.

Oil Holds Decline

WTI crude oil futures hovered around $63 per barrel on Wednesday, holding an over 2% decline in the previous session, as investors braced for steep new US tariffs on India, the world’s third-largest crude importer. The US is set to double duties on certain Indian goods to 50% over its oil trade with Russia. Markets are weighing potential demand effects, as Indian refiners, after briefly cutting Russian crude due to US tariffs and EU sanctions, have resumed purchases for September and October, raising questions about the tariffs’ impact. Meanwhile, attention remained on developments between Russia and Ukraine, which recently stepped up strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure. Investors are also monitoring broader market uncertainties amid concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence. In the meantime, API data showed US crude inventories fell nearly 1 million barrels last week, smaller than the expected 1.7 million.

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Crude Oil Price History

13.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 9.9%

• The surge in oil prices was primarily driven by Israel's preemptive strike on Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East and raising concerns about potential supply disruptions.
• Additional support came from the US preparing for a partial evacuation of personnel in the region, softer US inflation data reinforcing expectations of Fed rate cuts, and EIA data showing a significant decline in US crude stocks, indicating robust demand.
• The ongoing US-Iran tensions, coupled with trade optimism following agreements between the US and China, have added layers of uncertainty and optimism to the market, influencing the bullish movement in crude oil prices.
• While OPEC+ plans to increase output, the drawdown in US crude inventories and the potential impact of geopolitical events on supply chains continue to shape the bullish sentiment in the oil market.

13.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 6.6%

• The rise in crude oil prices was driven by Israel's actions against Iran, prompting concerns about potential disruptions in the global oil supply chain, particularly in the region near the Strait of Hormuz.
• Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, including the US's preparations for a partial personnel evacuation from the Middle East and Iran's retaliatory threats, supported oil prices amidst the prevailing market instability.
• Favorable demand indicators, such as the considerable decline in US crude inventories and the anticipated economic stimulation from potential Fed rate cuts leading to increased oil consumption, further strengthened the positive outlook for crude oil.
• Despite some uncertainties arising from the lingering US-China trade tensions and the planned production increase by OPEC+ in July, the immediate market response remained optimistic, fueling the upward trajectory of oil prices.

29.06.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 3.9%

• The surge in crude oil prices is linked to President Trump's recent announcement of a shortened deadline for Russia to secure a peace agreement with Ukraine, leading to apprehensions regarding a potential constraint in global oil availability.
• Positive sentiment surrounding the US-EU trade agreement and prospects of trade deals with Japan and other nations also contributed to the price upsurge.
• Additionally, market optimism was fueled by a more substantial decline in crude inventories than anticipated and indications of advancements in US trade discussions, alleviating concerns regarding future oil demand.
• Notwithstanding these favorable developments, underlying worries persist about long-term factors such as apprehensions about decelerated global growth due to trade uncertainties and the likelihood of oversupply if OPEC+ proceeds with raising its production target.

17.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.1%

• The bullish movement in Crude Oil prices today was primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, leading to concerns about potential disruptions in energy flows and trade routes.
• US President Donald Trump's call for the evacuation of Tehran and Israel's intensified airstrikes on Iran's capital contributed to market volatility, pushing oil prices higher.
• Signals of de-escalation from Iran and a willingness to resume nuclear negotiations helped ease market concerns, leading to a surge in oil prices as investors unwound risk-off positions.
• The fluctuating oil prices reflect the market's sensitivity to geopolitical developments and the potential impact on global oil supply chains, particularly through critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.

23.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 13.7%

• A 7% drop in Crude Oil prices followed Iran's missile attack on a US airbase in Qatar, which resulted in no casualties and relieved immediate escalation concerns.
• The market showed confidence in oil supply continuity as tankers proceeded through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical point for global oil shipment.
• President Trump's decision to hold off on potential US military action against Iran fostered hopes for diplomatic talks, contributing to the negative market sentiment for oil.
• Even with ongoing geopolitical turmoil and increasing conflicts between Israel and Iran, reports of Iran sustaining high levels of crude exports further pressured oil prices downward.

23.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 10.2%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil prices today can be attributed to the softening concerns regarding potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran refrains from targeting oil flows in retaliation to US strikes.
• Despite escalating tensions between Iran, Israel, and the US, the market reassessed the immediate risk of supply disruptions, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices.
• Additionally, the market may have reacted to reports of Iran maintaining its crude exports at high levels, along with a sharper-than-expected drop in US crude inventories, indicating a potential oversupply situation.
• Overall, the bearish movement in Crude Oil today reflects a combination of geopolitical developments, supply dynamics, and market sentiment adjustments, leading to a notable shift in prices.

17.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was up 5.1%

• The bullish movement in Crude Oil is linked to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, specifically Israel's strikes on Iran's assets, raising concerns about a broader regional war and potential supply disruptions.
• Interest from Iran in de-escalating tensions and resuming nuclear negotiations has led to fluctuations in oil prices, with market sentiment changing based on the perceived likelihood of a prolonged conflict.
• The Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil trade, remains a significant concern. Any threats of closure by Iran could pose a risk to oil prices and market stability.
• Geopolitical uncertainties, as well as factors like production quotas by OPEC+ and potential tariffs from the U.S., are contributing to the volatility in oil prices as traders navigate through the complexities of global events impacting the energy market.

23.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 6.4%

• The decline in Crude Oil today can be linked to:
• President Trump's choice to delay any likely US military action against Iran, lessening immediate worries of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
• Intensified strikes by Israel on key targets in Iran, heightening tensions without an immediate outbreak of conflict.
• Profit-taking by investors as the immediate supply shock risk decreased with the postponement of a US airstrike on Iran.
• Indeterminate economic policies in the US pushing investors away from the dollar, bolstering commodities like oil traded in that currency.

16.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 5.8%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil prices today can be attributed to the easing of tensions between Israel and Iran, as investors scaled back risk-off trades amid signs that the conflict may not escalate further.
• The belief that the tensions are likely to remain contained, coupled with Iran's oil infrastructure remaining untouched, contributed to the market retreat.
• Despite concerns over potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical risks, the market sentiment shifted towards a more stable outlook, leading to the bearish movement in Crude Oil prices.
• It is essential for traders to monitor geopolitical developments closely, as any escalation in tensions or disruptions to key oil supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz could quickly reverse the current market trend.

02.08.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 0.2%

• The bearish movement in Crude Oil prices today can be attributed to a combination of factors:
• Weaker US demand and concerns over the end of the summer driving season have weighed on prices, indicating a potential slowdown in consumption.
• Reports of a potential ceasefire in Ukraine have eased tensions and expectations of supply disruptions, leading to a downward pressure on prices.
• Rising output from OPEC+ and other producers, along with the possibility of a global supply surplus by year-end, have added to the bearish sentiment in the market.
• Geopolitical factors, such as India's continued purchases of Russian oil despite US tariff threats, have also contributed to the overall uncertainty and downward pressure on prices.

24.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 11.3%

• The ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran by President Trump led to a drop in oil prices, as fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East eased.
• The lack of casualties in Iran's missile strike on a US airbase in Qatar contributed to the bearish movement, signaling a potential de-escalation in Middle East tensions.
• Despite the ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran, reports of Iran maintaining crude exports at high levels added pressure on oil prices.
• The market's reaction to recent developments suggests that investors are closely monitoring geopolitical dynamics in the region, balancing concerns of supply disruptions with signs of potential peace negotiations.

24.05.2025 - CRUDE Commodity was down 10.6%

• Crude oil experienced a bearish movement today, with prices dropping significantly.
• The market movement was primarily driven by the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, easing concerns over potential oil supply disruptions in the Middle East.
• The de-escalation of tensions following Iran's missile strike on a US airbase in Qatar, which resulted in no casualties, contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices.
• Despite the temporary relief in the market, the situation remains fragile, with uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire and the possibility of Iran attempting to close the vital chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz.