Gasoline ($GASOLINE) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.2% Today

What is Gasoline?

Gasoline, a key commodity in the energy market, experienced a significant bearish movement today. The market for gasoline has been volatile due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns in key regions.

Why is Gasoline going down?

GASOLINE commodity is down 5.2% on Apr 17, 2026 16:11

• Gasoline prices plunged to a 5-week low due to hopes of increased supply from the Persian Gulf region following an announcement regarding vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz. This news eased concerns over potential supply disruptions, leading to a drop in gasoline futures.
• Despite a larger-than-expected draw in inventories and an increase in gasoline demand, the prospects of further peace negotiations between two countries outweighed these positive factors, contributing to the decline in gasoline futures.
• The anticipation of renewed talks between the two nations, along with the potential for a deal benefiting both sides, led to a slip in gasoline prices. The uncertainty surrounding the ongoing geopolitical situation, including naval activities and output disruptions, added to the market's volatility.
• The market sentiment for gasoline was influenced by shifting geopolitical dynamics, peace negotiation prospects, and supply concerns in key regions, highlighting the interconnectedness of global events on commodity prices.

GASOLINE Price Chart

GASOLINE Technical Analysis

GASOLINE News

Gasoline Hits 5-week Low

Gasoline decreased to 2.89 USD/Gal, the lowest since March 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Gasoline lost 6.32%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 38.73%.

Gasoline Plunges on Hopes of Persian Gulf Supply

Gasoline futures for delivery at the New York Harbor sank to below $2.95 per gallon on Friday, the lowest in over one month, after Iran stated that tankers are free to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials stated that they will open the Persian Gulf chokepoint for all commercial vessels for the first time since the start of the conflict, raising hopes that energy supply from the key region is due to be normalized shortly, although US President Trump stated that Iranian vessels will remain blockaded. The development was set to ease bidding prices for alternative crude oil producers by Asian refineries that are dependent on supply from the Middle East, which were the heaviest hit by the conflict at the beginning of the month, which drove US retail gasoline prices to surpass $4 per gallon. Still, attacks on Russian refining infrastructure prevented a sharper drop for gasoline futures.

Gasoline Futures Decline

Gasoline futures fell to around $3.00 per gallon, giving back gains from the previous session, as prospects of further US–Iran peace negotiations outweighed a larger-than-expected draw in inventories. EIA data showed gasoline stocks declined by 6.3 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 2.1 million-barrel drop. Weekly gasoline demand also rose by 0.5 million bpd, while the four-week average increased by 0.1 million bpd. Meanwhile, reports suggest the US and Iran are considering extending their two-week ceasefire to allow more time for negotiations. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with a US naval blockade on Iranian ports continuing to fuel concerns over potential supply disruptions. Iran has also warned it may retaliate against any extension of the blockade by halting shipments through other key waterways.

Gasoline Extends Losses

Gasoline futures fell to around $3.00 per gallon, extending losses from the previous session, as rising expectations of peace negotiations between the US and Iran weighed on prices. A White House official said a second round of talks between Washington and Tehran is being discussed, although no formal timeline has been set. Reports also indicated that President Trump expects negotiations could resume “within the next two days,” while noting that progress has been slow. Despite this, uncertainty remains elevated as the US advances a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to limit Iran’s oil exports, while Tehran is considering a temporary pause in shipments to avoid escalating tensions. Highlighting the impact, the IEA reported that no new energy cargoes have been loaded in April and warned that global oil demand could decline this year for the first time since the COVID pandemic.

Gasoline Slips on Renewed US-Iran Talk Hopes

Gasoline futures fell over 1% to below $3.10 per gallon on Tuesday, trimming gains in the previous session, as hopes of renewed US–Iran talks resurfaced. US Vice President JD Vance said progress now depends on Tehran after weekend talks failed, saying the “ball is in the Iranian court” after Washington set out its terms, and a deal could benefit both sides if US nuclear conditions are met. President Donald Trump also said Iran had reached out through channels, while President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran is open to talks provided they remain within international law. The shift followed the US move to begin a blockade of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf on Monday, threatening oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz, which averaged about 1.7 million barrels per day last month, tightening physical oil and refined product markets further. Meanwhile, an OPEC report showed Gulf Arab output fell sharply in March amid disruptions, raising concerns that recovery could take longer than expected.

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Gasoline Price History

26.02.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.7%

• Gasoline futures surged as tensions between two countries escalated, leading to concerns about potential disruptions in the global oil supply chain.
• Mixed signals from both countries regarding peace talks and the ongoing conflict in a specific region contributed to the volatility in gasoline prices.
• Supply disruptions in a strategic waterway, along with seasonal demand factors and the threat of military action, all played a role in driving gasoline prices higher.
• The market movement reflects the sensitivity of energy markets to geopolitical events and underscores the importance of monitoring global developments for potential impacts on commodity prices.

08.03.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 11.5%

• Gasoline futures dropped over 10% to below $3 per gallon, hitting a four-week low. The decline can be attributed to Iran's agreement to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about potential supply disruptions.
• President Trump's ultimatum for Iran to reopen the waterway or face targeted strikes on infrastructure added uncertainty to the market, impacting gasoline prices negatively.
• The announcement of a ceasefire and upcoming negotiations between the US and Iran likely provided some relief to investors, leading to the bearish movement in gasoline futures as tensions eased in the region.
• The decision by OPEC+ to increase output in May may have also contributed to the downward pressure on gasoline prices, as concerns about supply constraints due to the closed Strait of Hormuz were partially alleviated.

01.03.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.5%

• Gasoline prices retreated after reaching a 3-year high, following a brief decline triggered by Iranian President's readiness to end hostilities with Western powers. This shift in rhetoric, coupled with skepticism in the market due to recent tanker incidents and continued US troop movements, led to the bearish movement.
• Despite heading for its strongest monthly gain on record, Gasoline faced downward pressure as markets remained cautious about the ongoing disruptions in critical energy corridors like the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. The uncertainty surrounding peace talks and the looming geopolitical risks contributed to the price retreat.
• President Trump's mixed signals on the Iran conflict, from hints of negotiations to ultimatums of infrastructure destruction, added to the market volatility and bearish sentiment. The deployment of additional US forces and the resulting geopolitical risk premium further weighed on Gasoline prices.
• The historic surge in Gasoline prices over the past month, driven by global supply shocks and seasonal demand, faced a setback as investors reacted to the evolving geopolitical landscape and the delicate balance between hopes for peace and fears of escalating tensions.

09.03.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.2%

• Gasoline futures surged as the market reacted to Israeli strikes on Lebanon, which led to Iran halting the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. This escalation in tensions and potential disruptions in oil supply contributed to the bullish movement in Gasoline prices.
• The previous day, Gasoline futures dropped significantly following Iran's agreement to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of a ceasefire with the US and Israel. This decision alleviated concerns about oil supply disruptions, leading to a sharp decline in Gasoline prices.
• The fluctuating Gasoline prices reflect the market's sensitivity to geopolitical developments in the Middle East, particularly regarding the vital waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are closely monitoring ceasefire negotiations and potential disruptions in energy supplies, which are driving the volatility in Gasoline futures.
• Despite the temporary relief provided by the ceasefire agreements, uncertainties persist regarding the long-term stability of oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Any further escalations or disruptions in the region could continue to impact Gasoline prices in the coming days.

17.03.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.2%

• Gasoline futures fell amid growing possibilities of peace talks between the US and Iran, despite a larger-than-expected decline in inventories, leading to a downward shift in the market.
• Speculations about peace negotiations between the US and Iran, combined with the US implementing a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, were key contributors to the drop in Gasoline prices.
• Uncertainties surrounding the US-Iran conflict, potential supply disruptions, and their effects on global oil demand all played a role in pushing Gasoline prices lower, resulting in the observed downward trend in the market.

17.03.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.2%

• Gasoline prices plunged to a 5-week low due to hopes of increased supply from the Persian Gulf region following an announcement regarding vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz. This news eased concerns over potential supply disruptions, leading to a drop in gasoline futures.
• Despite a larger-than-expected draw in inventories and an increase in gasoline demand, the prospects of further peace negotiations between two countries outweighed these positive factors, contributing to the decline in gasoline futures.
• The anticipation of renewed talks between the two nations, along with the potential for a deal benefiting both sides, led to a slip in gasoline prices. The uncertainty surrounding the ongoing geopolitical situation, including naval activities and output disruptions, added to the market's volatility.
• The market sentiment for gasoline was influenced by shifting geopolitical dynamics, peace negotiation prospects, and supply concerns in key regions, highlighting the interconnectedness of global events on commodity prices.

23.02.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 9.6%

• Gasoline futures experienced a bearish movement today due to a combination of factors:
• President Trump's decision to pause plans to strike Iranian energy infrastructure led to a sharp drop in oil prices, impacting gasoline futures negatively.
• The potential easing of sanctions on Iranian oil at sea and signals of no further military escalation contributed to the downward pressure on gasoline prices.
• The strategic 60-day waiver of the Jones Act and a massive release of 172 million barrels from strategic reserves helped stabilize the market and counteract escalating Middle Eastern supply risks.
• Despite the recent pullback, gasoline prices have been on a significant upward trend this year, driven by supply disruptions, seasonal demand, and geopolitical uncertainties.

23.02.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 9.1%

• Gasoline futures declined due to signals of potential easing of sanctions on Iranian oil, easing concerns about supply disruptions.
• The temporary suspension of the Jones Act and the release of strategic reserves helped mitigate escalating Middle Eastern supply risks, contributing to the downward correction in gasoline prices.
• Despite conflicts in the Middle East and energy infrastructure disruptions, efforts to stabilize supply chains and address transport bottlenecks have provided relief to the market, leading to a bearish trend in gasoline prices today.

25.02.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.0%

• Gasoline prices experienced a bearish movement today due to the following reasons:
• Prospects of a potential ceasefire in the Middle East raised expectations of easing disruptions to global oil supply, leading to a decline in gasoline futures.
• Reports of possible talks between the US and Iran, along with the pause in plans to strike Iranian energy infrastructure, contributed to a drop in oil prices and subsequently gasoline futures.
• Market assessment of potential easing of sanctions on Iranian oil at sea to alleviate price pressures also impacted gasoline futures negatively.
• Despite the bearish movement, gasoline prices have remained volatile and are still up significantly this month, driven by supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the seasonal shift to more expensive summer fuel blends.

24.02.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 6.9%

• Gasoline futures saw a decrease as President Trump delayed plans to strike Iranian energy infrastructure following what were seen as productive talks, causing oil prices to fall sharply.
• The decline in gasoline futures was also impacted by suggestions that the US might ease sanctions on Iranian oil at sea and by reports of no immediate plans for further military escalation from Israel and the US.
• Despite this dip, gasoline prices are still high, having risen by more than 30% this month due to ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and strong demand for pricier summer fuel blends.
• Geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions in the Middle East continue to influence gasoline prices, with close attention being paid to any developments that could affect global energy supply chains.

07.03.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 9.2%

• Gasoline futures edged lower due to President Trump's ultimatum to Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which overshadowed ceasefire efforts, causing uncertainty and downward pressure on prices.
• Market sentiments were impacted negatively by Trump's warnings of potential strikes on Iran's infrastructure, resulting in a risk-off sentiment that affected Gasoline prices.
• Despite OPEC+ agreeing to increase output, concerns about supply disruptions from the closed Strait and damaged infrastructure limited optimism for increased supply reaching global markets, contributing to the bearish movement in Gasoline prices.

27.02.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.1%

• Gasoline prices surged as a key political decision was made, easing short-term pressure and maintaining a notable geopolitical premium due to tensions in the Middle East.
• Fluctuations in gasoline futures were observed due to conflicting signals from two countries, alongside supply disruptions in a crucial region and seasonal demand patterns.
• A potential ceasefire in the Middle East caused a brief decline in gasoline prices, exposing the market's sensitivity to geopolitical events and the anticipation of reduced disruptions to the global oil supply.
• Despite a temporary decrease in gasoline futures after a significant announcement, prices remain high due to seasonal demand, disruptions in the supply chain, and the transition to more costly summer fuel formulations.