Gasoline ($GASOLINE) Commodity Forecast: Up 5.0% Today

What is Gasoline?

Gasoline is a key commodity in the energy market, with its price heavily influenced by factors such as geopolitical tensions, supply and demand dynamics, and seasonal trends. Today, Gasoline experienced a strong bullish movement, reaching a 10-week high of $2.20 per gallon.

Why is Gasoline going up?

GASOLINE commodity is up 5.0% on Jun 13, 2025 12:01

• Gasoline futures surged due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, which raised concerns about potential supply disruptions, pushing prices higher.
• The drop in US crude inventories, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties and trade optimism, provided further support to Gasoline prices.
• Despite concerns about oversupply and rising inventories, the summer driving season's increased travel demand and the looming threat of hurricanes impacting supply chains added upward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• OPEC+ plans to gradually increase output, but the market remains sensitive to any disruptions that could impact supply, keeping Gasoline prices elevated.

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GASOLINE News

Gasoline Futures Jump on Middle East Escalation

US gasoline futures rose above $2.20 per gallon, briefly touching $2.30 for the first time since April 2, as escalating Middle East tensions fueled supply concerns. Israel launched strikes on Iran, targeting nuclear sites, ballistic missile facilities, and senior military commanders, calling the action the beginning of a sustained effort to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon. In response, Iran fired around 100 drones toward Israeli territory. The escalation comes just days before the sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks, set for Sunday in Oman. Adding to price support, US crude inventories fell by 3.644 million barrels last week, exceeding market expectations of a 2.5 million-barrel draw, according to EIA data. Stockpiles at the Cushing hub also declined by 403,000 barrels. However, gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected, increasing by 1.504 million and 1.246 million barrels, respectively.

Gasoline Hits 10-week High

Gasoline increased to a 10-week high of 2.20 USD/Gal. Over the past 4 weeks, Gasoline gained 2.5%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 8.72%.

US Gasoline Futures Rise to 3-Week High

US gasoline futures climbed to $2.12 per gallon, the highest in three weeks, driven by rising oil prices amid renewed geopolitical tensions and trade optimism. Crude was boosted after former President Trump declared the US-China trade deal “done,” pending final approval with President Xi. At the same time, Trump expressed doubts over a nuclear deal with Iran, while Tehran threatened retaliation if talks collapse. Supporting prices further, US crude inventories dropped by 3.644 million barrels last week, exceeding forecasts of a 2.5 million barrel decline, according to EIA data. Stocks at the Cushing hub also fell by 403,000 barrels. However, gasoline and distillate inventories both rose more than expected, increasing by 1.504 million and 1.246 million barrels, respectively. On the supply front, OPEC+ plans to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in July, continuing its gradual rollback of production cuts.

US Gasoline Futures Edge Up

US gasoline futures rose to $2.07 per gallon as the summer driving season gained momentum, with strong travel demand outweighing oversupply concerns. Warmer weather is fueling a surge in road trips, with 71% of surveyed travelers planning to drive this summer, up from 64% in March and 66% in 2024, according to Bank of America. About 63% of Americans will travel by car or rental, compared to 45% by plane. Still, EIA data showed gasoline consumption dipped to 8.26 million b/d from 9.45 million, while supply rose to 228.3 million barrels. Production also fell slightly to 9 million b/d. Meanwhile, the NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with potential storms threatening Gulf Coast refineries and supply chains, which could lift prices. On the supply side, OPEC+ confirmed a 411,000 bpd output hike for July, its third monthly increase, and Saudi Arabia is pushing for further hikes in August and September to meet peak demand.

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Gasoline Price History

13.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.0%

• Gasoline futures surged due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, which raised concerns about potential supply disruptions, pushing prices higher.
• The drop in US crude inventories, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties and trade optimism, provided further support to Gasoline prices.
• Despite concerns about oversupply and rising inventories, the summer driving season's increased travel demand and the looming threat of hurricanes impacting supply chains added upward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• OPEC+ plans to gradually increase output, but the market remains sensitive to any disruptions that could impact supply, keeping Gasoline prices elevated.

13.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 2.1%

• Gasoline futures surged to a three-week high of $2.12 per gallon due to a combination of factors:
• Rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions and trade optimism, with recent comments relating to the US-China trade deal and uncertainties over a nuclear deal with Iran affecting market sentiment.
• Decrease in US crude inventories surpassing expectations, indicating a potential rise in gasoline demand.
• Plans by OPEC+ to increase output in July, which could impact supply dynamics and offer further support to gasoline prices.
• Despite concerns regarding oversupply and a decline in gasoline consumption, the ongoing momentum of the summer driving season, coupled with robust travel demand influenced by warm weather and increased road trips, is bolstering the upward trend in gasoline futures.

13.05.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.2%

• Gasoline prices surged to a 10-week high of $2.20 per gallon due to a combination of factors:
• Rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions and trade optimism.
• Decrease in US crude inventories exceeding forecasts, indicating strong demand for gasoline.
• Summer driving season gaining momentum, with increased travel demand and a surge in road trips.
• Potential supply disruptions from the prediction of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.

09.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.1%

• Gasoline futures surged despite hitting a multi-month low, as fears of a global economic slowdown and escalating trade tensions between countries weighed on energy markets.
• The unexpected decision to increase oil output by 411,000 barrels per day for May, well above market expectations, contributed to concerns about oversupply and a potential glut in the oil market, impacting Gasoline prices.
• President Trump's imposition of tariffs on various countries, coupled with retaliatory measures, added to market uncertainty and the risk of a broader economic slowdown, further influencing the bullish movement in Gasoline prices.
• Despite a slight draw in gasoline stocks, the broader market selloff, supply glut worries, and weakening demand outlook due to trade tensions and economic uncertainties played a significant role in driving Gasoline prices higher today.

09.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.2%

• Gasoline futures plummeted to multi-week lows due to a combination of factors, including:
• OPEC+ announcing a substantial 411,000 bpd output increase for May, signaling oversupply in the global oil market.
• President Trump's trade restrictions and the escalating trade war with China, heightening fears of a global economic slowdown and reduced energy demand.
• Surging US crude inventories and falling gasoline stockpiles, indicating weakening demand for gasoline.
• The exemption of oil, gas, and refined products from Trump's tariffs provided some relief, but broader economic concerns continued to weigh heavily on the energy markets.
• Traders are closely monitoring OPEC+ meetings for potential output adjustments to counterbalance oversupply issues exacerbated by record production from countries like Kazakhstan, adding further uncertainty to Gasoline's future trajectory.

31.02.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 1.9%

• Gasoline hitting a 4-week high could be attributed to the following:
• Increased demand for gasoline due to the easing of COVID-19 restrictions leading to more travel and economic activities.
• Supply constraints or disruptions in the oil refining process, impacting gasoline production.
• Speculative trading or investor sentiment driving up prices in anticipation of future demand.
• The 4-week high indicates a bullish sentiment in the gasoline market, potentially fueled by a combination of these factors.

28.01.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 15.4%

• Gasoline prices surged today, hitting a 26-week peak at $2.24 USD/Gal.
• The rise in gasoline costs is linked to declining domestic inventories, increasing demand, and geopolitical tensions impacting oil prices.
• Despite worries about global supply and economic outlook, the uptick in gasoline prices signals positive market sentiment and potential for further growth in the short term.
• Traders are advised to closely track oil price movements, demand patterns, and geopolitical shifts to anticipate future trends in gasoline pricing.

03.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.4%

• Gasoline prices hit a 7-month high due to a combination of factors such as increasing demand with the onset of the spring travel season, tightening supply dynamics, and elevated refinery input costs.
• The surge in demand coinciding with declining domestic inventories and reduced production contributed to the bullish trend.
• Higher crude oil prices, driven by global supply constraints and tariffs on Canadian crude, added to the cost pressures on refineries, impacting gasoline prices negatively.
• Despite the recent 4-week high, the overall trend for gasoline in the past year has been a significant decrease, indicating potential volatility and sensitivity to market dynamics.

03.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 7.0%

• Gasoline futures dropped significantly due to increased supply and concerns over demand, following a decision by OPEC+ countries to raise production levels beyond expectations.
• Trump's new tariffs also contributed to the bearish trend, fueling fears of a global trade war that could slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand.
• The unexpected surge in US crude inventories and a decline in gasoline stockpiles added to the downward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• Overall, the combination of oversupply, trade war fears, and inventory data led to the bearish market movement in Gasoline today.

03.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 7.0%

• The bearish movement in Gasoline prices today can be attributed to concerns over new tariffs, which have sparked fears of a global trade war that could potentially slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand.
• Additionally, the unexpected surge in US crude inventories by 6.2 million barrels, coupled with a drop in gasoline demand to 8.5 million barrels per day, has added downward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• The outcome of a recent meeting, where tensions over record production from Kazakhstan and calls for further output cuts persist, has also contributed to the bearish sentiment in the Gasoline market.
• Overall, the combination of trade uncertainties, supply-demand imbalances, and geopolitical tensions has led to the bearish movement in Gasoline prices today.

04.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.1%

• Gasoline prices dropped significantly to multi-week lows due to a combination of factors:
• An announcement of a larger-than-expected production increase by OPEC+, signaling oversupply in the oil market and putting downward pressure on prices.
• Concerns over a global trade war intensified by recent tariffs, which could potentially slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand.
• Rising US crude inventories and falling gasoline stockpiles also contributed to the bearish sentiment, indicating weaker demand for gasoline.
• The seasonal uptick in demand during the spring travel season was not enough to offset the impact of supply concerns and increased input costs for refineries, leading to the downward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• Traders are closely monitoring the OPEC+ meeting outcomes and potential production adjustments to address the oversupply issue and stabilize prices in the energy market.

04.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 6.2%

• Gasoline prices decreased significantly today, reaching a 5-week low of $2.07 per gallon.
• The decline in gasoline prices can be linked to worries about higher supply following an unexpected production boost by OPEC+ nations, resulting in ample supply in the market.
• Moreover, concerns about a global trade conflict stemming from new tariffs imposed by a prominent figure have sparked worries about sluggish economic growth and decreased fuel demand, impacting gasoline prices negatively.
• The interaction of heightened supply, decreased demand, and geopolitical uncertainties has contributed to today's downward trend in gasoline prices.