Gasoline ($GASOLINE) Commodity Forecast: Down 7.0% Today

What is Gasoline?

Gasoline is a key commodity in the energy market, with its price closely tied to crude oil and demand for fuel. Today, Gasoline experienced a strong bearish movement.

Why is Gasoline going down?

GASOLINE commodity is down 7.0% on Apr 3, 2025 17:48

• Gasoline futures dropped significantly due to increased supply and concerns over demand, following a decision by OPEC+ countries to raise production levels beyond expectations.
• Trump's new tariffs also contributed to the bearish trend, fueling fears of a global trade war that could slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand.
• The unexpected surge in US crude inventories and a decline in gasoline stockpiles added to the downward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• Overall, the combination of oversupply, trade war fears, and inventory data led to the bearish market movement in Gasoline today.

GASOLINE Price Chart

GASOLINE Technical Analysis

GASOLINE News

Gasoline Drops Further After OPEC+

US gasoline futures fell below $2.15 per gallon, the lowest in two weeks, tracking crude oil lower amid increased supply and heightened concerns over demand. Crude oil prices tumbled after eight OPEC+ countries unexpectedly announced a 411,000-barrel-per-day production increase for May—far exceeding the planned 135,000 bpd—signaling ample supply. Additionally, concerns over Trump’s sweeping new tariffs fueled fears of a global trade war that could slow economic growth and curb fuel demand. The policy imposes a 10% minimum tariff on most imports, with higher duties on select countries, but exempts oil, gas, and refined products. Meanwhile, US crude inventories surged by 6.2 million barrels last week, defying expectations of a decline, while gasoline stockpiles fell 1.6 million barrels, slightly more than anticipated. Gasoline demand dropped to 8.5 million barrels per day.

Gasoline Futures Fall to 2-Week Low

US gasoline futures fell below $2.20 per gallon, the lowest in two weeks, as concerns over Trump’s sweeping new tariffs fueled fears of a global trade war that could slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand. The policy imposes a 10% minimum tariff on most imports, with higher duties on select countries, but exempts oil, gas, and refined products. Meanwhile, US crude inventories surged by 6.2 million barrels last week, defying expectations of a decline, while gasoline stockpiles fell 1.6 million barrels, slightly more than anticipated. Gasoline demand dropped to 8.5 million barrels per day. Traders now await the outcome of OPEC+ meeting, where top ministers are expected to maintain plans for gradual output increases. However, record production from Kazakhstan has angered key members, including Saudi Arabia, leading to calls for further cuts to offset oversupply.

Gasoline Hits 7-Month High

US gasoline futures rose toward $2.3 per gallon, extending a rising trend to a seven-month high as spring travel dovetails with tightening supply dynamics and elevated refinery input costs. As the travel season kicks off, demand surges, evidenced by the national average creeping up. This seasonal uptick coincides with a marked decline in domestic gasoline inventories—down roughly 530,000 barrels in the second week of March—while production has contracted, further limiting available supply. Moreover, higher crude oil prices, driven by global supply constraints and tariffs imposed on Canadian crude, have raised feedstock costs for refineries, particularly those dependent on sour crude imports, thereby transferring additional cost pressures onto gasoline.

Gasoline Hits 4-week High

Gasoline increased to a 4-week high of 2.25 USD/Gal. Over the past 4 weeks, Gasoline gained 0.58%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 17.51%.

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Gasoline Price History

01.09.2024 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 1.7%

• Gasoline prices are under pressure due to ongoing worries about sluggish demand, especially impacted by economic struggles in China that are dampening fuel consumption.
• Anticipated increase in crude oil supply, potentially through Saudi Arabia easing production cuts and Libya settling export disputes, is further depressing gasoline prices.
• The market is experiencing a decline in gasoline futures as a result of subdued demand and potential oversupply, despite attempts to stimulate consumption and resolve supply challenges.

08.09.2024 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.3%

• Gasoline futures dropped to $2 per gallon today, a significant shift from a 6-week high, despite the recent bullish trend.
• The unexpected increase in gasoline inventories by 1.119 million barrels led to this decline, contrary to market expectations of a decrease.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially between Iran and Israel, have raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply chains, causing oil prices to surge and exerting pressure on gasoline futures.
• President Biden's lack of direct opposition to a potential Israeli attack on Iran's oil facilities has added a risk premium to oil futures, contributing to the downward movement in gasoline prices.

03.09.2024 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.2%

• The Middle East's geopolitical tensions, specifically the situation between Iran and Israel, amplified concerns about potential disruptions in the oil market, prompting increases in oil prices and subsequently lifting gasoline futures.
• Positive US economic data, which included encouraging labor market statistics and a surge in the ISM Services PMI, suggested a strong demand for fuel, further reinforcing the market's bullish trend in gasoline prices.
• Despite an unforeseen uptick in gasoline stockpiles, the overall market sentiment leaned more heavily on geopolitical aspects and economic indicators, overshadowing the impact of the inventory rise on gasoline futures.
• The convergence of heightened geopolitical uncertainties and positive economic signals resulted in the notable increase in gasoline prices, underlining the complex relationship between global occurrences and commodity markets.

03.09.2024 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.2%

• Gasoline prices surged to a 4-week high of $2 per gallon as oil prices spiked due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The launch of ballistic missiles by Iran at Israel raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply from the region, leading to a rally in oil prices and subsequently pushing up gasoline futures.
• Despite the recent increase, Gasoline remains near February-2021 lows as worries persist over weak demand exacerbated by China's economic struggles and the possibility of increased crude oil supply from Saudi Arabia and Libya. These factors are putting downward pressure on Gasoline prices despite the short-term spike driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• The fluctuations in Gasoline prices highlight the intricate interplay between geopolitical events, global supply dynamics, and demand concerns, underscoring the volatility and sensitivity of energy markets to external factors beyond just traditional supply and demand fundamentals.

04.01.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.0%

• Gasoline futures dropped due to escalating trade tensions between the US and China, leading to retaliatory tariffs on various US exports, including crude oil.
• The weaker-than-expected US economic growth and speculation of Fed rate cuts in March contributed to a rebound in gasoline futures, as a weaker dollar made commodities more appealing.
• President Trump's tariff threats on Canadian and Mexican imports, along with a surge in gasoline inventories, added pressure on oil-related commodities, impacting the bearish movement in gasoline prices today.

03.01.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 0.5%

• Gasoline futures experienced a bearish movement despite a slight rebound today.
• The weaker-than-expected US economic growth and speculation over Fed rate cuts in March put pressure on the dollar, making commodities priced in it more attractive, including gasoline.
• The surge in gasoline inventories, exceeding forecasts, added to the bearish sentiment as oversupply concerns weighed on prices.
• Geopolitical tensions, such as tariff threats and calls for lower oil prices by a notable figure, also contributed to the downward pressure on gasoline prices.

31.02.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 1.9%

• Gasoline hitting a 4-week high could be attributed to the following:
• Increased demand for gasoline due to the easing of COVID-19 restrictions leading to more travel and economic activities.
• Supply constraints or disruptions in the oil refining process, impacting gasoline production.
• Speculative trading or investor sentiment driving up prices in anticipation of future demand.
• The 4-week high indicates a bullish sentiment in the gasoline market, potentially fueled by a combination of these factors.

28.01.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 15.1%

• Gasoline futures surged due to a combination of factors such as rising domestic inventories, weaker oil prices, and concerns over global supply.
• The unexpected increase in gasoline stocks, coupled with weaker demand and falling oil prices, exerted downward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• Geopolitical developments, including hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and potential lifting of Russian sanctions, added uncertainty to the market, impacting the bullish movement in Gasoline prices.
• Overall, the bearish market movement in Gasoline can be attributed to a complex interplay of supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and economic growth concerns.

28.01.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 15.4%

• Gasoline prices surged today, hitting a 26-week peak at $2.24 USD/Gal.
• The rise in gasoline costs is linked to declining domestic inventories, increasing demand, and geopolitical tensions impacting oil prices.
• Despite worries about global supply and economic outlook, the uptick in gasoline prices signals positive market sentiment and potential for further growth in the short term.
• Traders are advised to closely track oil price movements, demand patterns, and geopolitical shifts to anticipate future trends in gasoline pricing.

03.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 5.4%

• Gasoline prices hit a 7-month high due to a combination of factors such as increasing demand with the onset of the spring travel season, tightening supply dynamics, and elevated refinery input costs.
• The surge in demand coinciding with declining domestic inventories and reduced production contributed to the bullish trend.
• Higher crude oil prices, driven by global supply constraints and tariffs on Canadian crude, added to the cost pressures on refineries, impacting gasoline prices negatively.
• Despite the recent 4-week high, the overall trend for gasoline in the past year has been a significant decrease, indicating potential volatility and sensitivity to market dynamics.

03.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 7.0%

• Gasoline futures dropped significantly due to increased supply and concerns over demand, following a decision by OPEC+ countries to raise production levels beyond expectations.
• Trump's new tariffs also contributed to the bearish trend, fueling fears of a global trade war that could slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand.
• The unexpected surge in US crude inventories and a decline in gasoline stockpiles added to the downward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• Overall, the combination of oversupply, trade war fears, and inventory data led to the bearish market movement in Gasoline today.

03.03.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 7.0%

• The bearish movement in Gasoline prices today can be attributed to concerns over new tariffs, which have sparked fears of a global trade war that could potentially slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand.
• Additionally, the unexpected surge in US crude inventories by 6.2 million barrels, coupled with a drop in gasoline demand to 8.5 million barrels per day, has added downward pressure on Gasoline prices.
• The outcome of a recent meeting, where tensions over record production from Kazakhstan and calls for further output cuts persist, has also contributed to the bearish sentiment in the Gasoline market.
• Overall, the combination of trade uncertainties, supply-demand imbalances, and geopolitical tensions has led to the bearish movement in Gasoline prices today.