Gasoline ($GASOLINE) Commodity Forecast: Up 5.3% Today

What is Gasoline?

Gasoline is a key commodity in the energy market, with its price heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions and global supply dynamics. Today, Gasoline experienced a strong bullish movement, with prices surging significantly.

Why is Gasoline going up?

GASOLINE commodity is up 5.3% on Mar 12, 2026 17:10

• Gasoline futures surged over 5% to trade above $2.93 per gallon, reaching the highest levels since July 2022, driven by escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf region.
• The market reacted to the worsening maritime crisis in the Strait of Hormuz following declarations from the new Iranian supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, leading to concerns about disruptions in global oil supplies.
• Despite efforts by the International Energy Agency to release emergency reserves, including the largest-ever coordinated release of 400 million barrels, traders remain apprehensive about the impact of the conflict on trade and fuel prices.
• Fresh projectile strikes on oil tankers and the reluctance of the US to guarantee a ceasefire with Iran have further fueled uncertainty, reinforcing the bullish sentiment in Gasoline prices as investors brace for prolonged supply disruptions.

GASOLINE Price Chart

GASOLINE Technical Analysis

GASOLINE News

Gasoline Surges After Khamenei Declaration

US gasoline futures surged over 5% to trade above $2.93 per gallon, the highest since July 2022 as markets reacted to the worsening maritime crisis in the Persian Gulf. Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Iranian supreme leader, declared that the Strait of Hormuz should stay closed to pressure international rivals. While the International Energy Agency launched its largest-ever coordinated release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the gesture has failed to calm traders who fear the 20% loss of global trade cannot be offset by stockpiles alone. Fresh projectile strikes on oil tankers in Iraqi waters and near Jebel Ali have further discouraged commercial traffic and reinforced bets that a near-term resolution is unlikely. Gulf producers have already slashed output as storage capacity reaches its limit while U.S. officials maintain they are not yet prepared to escort tankers through the conflict zone.

Gasoline Futures Extends Rally

US gasoline futures continued their rally, rising more than 4% to around $2.9 per gallon, approaching the four-year high reached earlier this week, as markets remained focused on developments in the Iran war. Iran has told regional mediators it will only consider a ceasefire if the US guarantees that neither Washington nor Israel will strike it again, a condition the US is unlikely to accept, dimming prospects for a near-term resolution. The conflict has caused major disruptions to global oil supplies, with the Strait of Hormuz largely inaccessible. Gulf producers have already cut output by roughly 6%, with further reductions possible. This has overshadowed global efforts to ease surging crude and fuel prices, with the International Energy Agency launching a coordinated release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest drawdown on record, including 172 million barrels from the US and 80 million barrels from Japan.

Gasoline is up by 5.01%

Gasoline increased 5.01% to 2.7725 USD/Gal

Gasoline Futures Extend Losses

Gasoline futures fell below $2.70 per gallon on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session as markets assessed President Trump’s efforts to ease concerns about the duration of the Middle East conflict. Trump said the war with Iran could be approaching its closing phase, noting that US forces are advancing faster than initially anticipated. He also indicated that the US may relax oil-related sanctions and deploy naval escorts to protect tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to limit further pressure on crude prices. Separately, G7 finance ministers said the group stands ready to release oil from strategic reserves if needed, though no action has been taken so far. Even so, uncertainty persists as investors remain skeptical about the administration’s attempts to stabilize energy markets, despite signals from the White House that it may be seeking a path toward ending the conflict.

Gasoline TUmbles Nearly 5%

Gasoline futures plummeted nearly 5% to below $2.64 per gallon on Monday afternoon as a sharp reversal in crude oil prices and aggressive intervention signals from the G7 capped the geopolitical risk premium. Prices initially surged to levels not seen since 2022 as the war with Iran paralyzed shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and forced output cuts across the Gulf. However, the momentum broke after President Donald Trump characterized the military campaign as nearing completion and noted that maritime traffic was resuming through key lanes. This bearish pivot was reinforced by G7 finance ministers announcing their readiness to deploy strategic petroleum reserves to stabilize global fuel markets and counteract inflationary pressures. While domestic inventories had shown a third consecutive weekly drawdown of 1.7 million barrels earlier in March the sudden collapse in the global energy complex and the easing of supply disruption fears triggered a rapid sell-off in gasoline benchmarks.

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Gasoline Price History

21.09.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 1.4%

• Gasoline futures experienced strong downward movement, nearing 2021 lows, driven by falling crude oil prices, abundant inventories, and reduced demand.
• A notable increase in US crude inventories and concerns over demand due to US-China trade tensions added to the downward pressure on gasoline prices.
• Additionally, lower-than-expected drawdown in gasoline inventories and decreased demand as autumn started were factors contributing to the declining gasoline prices.
• Projections indicate that US drivers are expected to spend the smallest portion of disposable income on gasoline in two decades, with ongoing low costs, reflecting an oversupply and weak demand scenario in the gasoline market.

10.02.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 13.3%

• Gasoline futures dropped below $2.70 per gallon today.
• President Trump's statements about easing Middle East conflict concerns, such as potentially relaxing oil-related sanctions and deploying naval escorts in the Strait of Hormuz, influenced the market.
• G7 finance ministers signaling readiness to release oil from strategic reserves added pressure on gasoline prices.
• Despite recent drawdowns in US gasoline stocks and disruptions in global energy traffic, the market sentiment shifted due to the perceived easing of tensions and potential measures to stabilize energy markets.

03.02.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.1%

• Gasoline prices surged to an 18-month high of 2.39 USD/Gal, marking a substantial increase over the past month and year. This bullish trend can be attributed to various factors:
• The joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran, resulting in the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, raised concerns about potential disruptions in energy supply, leading to a quick rise in Gasoline prices.
• The threat of insurers canceling coverage and increasing premiums due to the rerouting of vessels away from the vital chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz added to market uncertainty, further boosting Gasoline prices.
• Despite a slight dip in Gasoline futures from a recent high, ongoing nuclear talks between the US and Iran, coupled with geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, continue to keep the market on edge, contributing to the overall bullish sentiment in the Gasoline market.

09.00.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.0%

• Gasoline prices experienced a strong bullish movement today, reaching a 4-week high of $1.78 USD/Gal.
• The increase in Gasoline prices can be attributed to the broader weakness in the oil market, as supply surplus continues to outweigh geopolitical risks.
• Factors such as rising output and inventories, decisions related to maintaining output levels, and higher-than-expected US gasoline stocks have put pressure on the energy market, contributing to the recent price surge.
• Despite geopolitical tensions, the impact on energy supply remains limited, with Venezuela accounting for less than 1% of the world's oil output and its oil infrastructure remaining unharmed by external actions.

31.09.2025 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 4.9%

• Gasoline prices dropped to $1.97 per gallon despite recent gains.
• A 5.9 million barrel decrease in domestic gasoline stocks, exceeding expectations, briefly lifted prices.
• Oversupply worries in the petrol-commodity market, as well as supply constraints from Asian refineries due to US sanctions on Russian oil companies, contributed to the downward market trend.
• Despite a recent rally, the surplus of crude oil, production increases by OPEC+ members, and rising output from non-OPEC nations are likely to pressure gasoline prices in the coming days.

06.02.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.1%

• Gasoline prices surged to an 18-month high of $2.39 per gallon, marking a substantial increase over the past few weeks and months.
• The bullish momentum was primarily fueled by escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the US-Israeli strikes on Iran and the subsequent disruptions in energy supply routes.
• President Donald Trump's announcement of potential measures to ease energy costs, including releasing crude from US reserves and relaxing fuel-blending requirements, briefly halted Gasoline's rally, but the overall market sentiment remained bullish.
• The ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, coupled with unexpected supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties, contributed to the sharp increase in Gasoline prices, highlighting the commodity's sensitivity to geopolitical events and global energy dynamics.

27.01.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 14.6%

• Gasoline futures decreased from a five-month high, with market participants observing updates on US-Iran nuclear discussions, which prompted caution due to the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries resulted in Russian firms shifting towards exporting crude instead of gasoline, affecting the global gasoline supply.
• An unexpected 3.2 million barrel decline in national gasoline reserves, surpassing market projections, also played a role in pushing down gasoline futures.

14.00.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 2.9%

• Gasoline futures rebounded from a near five-year low as markets reassessed the potential impact of higher exports of Venezuelan crude oil on US refinery capacity. The hesitance of energy executives to bid for Venezuelan oil contracts due to political uncertainty and the sustainability concerns under the current regime contributed to the market's downward pressure.
• US President Trump's announcement of securing future shipments of Venezuelan crude oil further added to the bearish sentiment, as it signaled increased supply of heavy sour crude oil into the US, impacting Gasoline prices negatively.
• Chevron's move to hire 11 tankers to boost fuel exports to the US highlighted the ongoing efforts to enhance capacity, potentially leading to an oversupply situation and consequently driving Gasoline prices lower.
• The recent bearish movement in Gasoline prices could also be attributed to the broader market sentiment, where concerns over global economic growth and energy demand outlooks continue to weigh on commodity prices, including Gasoline.

12.02.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 8.5%

• Gasoline prices surged over 4% to around $2.9 per gallon, nearing a four-year high, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran.
• The conflict in the region, with Iran demanding guarantees from the US and Israel to consider a ceasefire, has led to major disruptions in global oil supplies, overshadowing efforts to ease crude and fuel prices.
• President Trump's statements about the war potentially nearing its end and efforts to stabilize energy markets have created uncertainty among investors, contributing to the volatile movement in gasoline futures.
• Despite occasional pullbacks, gasoline prices remain on a strong upward trajectory, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, making it a closely watched commodity in the current market environment.

12.02.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.3%

• Gasoline futures surged over 5% to trade above $2.93 per gallon, reaching the highest levels since July 2022, driven by escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf region.
• The market reacted to the worsening maritime crisis in the Strait of Hormuz following declarations from the new Iranian supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, leading to concerns about disruptions in global oil supplies.
• Despite efforts by the International Energy Agency to release emergency reserves, including the largest-ever coordinated release of 400 million barrels, traders remain apprehensive about the impact of the conflict on trade and fuel prices.
• Fresh projectile strikes on oil tankers and the reluctance of the US to guarantee a ceasefire with Iran have further fueled uncertainty, reinforcing the bullish sentiment in Gasoline prices as investors brace for prolonged supply disruptions.

09.02.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was down 13.5%

• Gasoline prices decreased by nearly 5% to below $2.64 per gallon due to a sharp reversal in crude oil prices and signals from the G7 suggesting a bearish market sentiment.
• President Donald Trump's comments on the military campaign reaching its conclusion and the reopening of maritime traffic through crucial lanes played a role in the decrease in gasoline prices.
• The decision by G7 finance ministers to utilize strategic petroleum reserves to stabilize global fuel markets contributed to the downward pressure on gasoline benchmarks.
• Despite initial positive momentum driven by Middle East tensions impacting global energy flow, a sudden downturn in the global energy sector and reduced concerns about supply disruptions led to a rapid decline in gasoline prices.

11.02.2026 - GASOLINE Commodity was up 5.8%

• Gasoline prices surged by 5.01% to $2.7725 per gallon, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns about supply disruptions.
• Statements about potentially easing tensions with Iran and deploying naval escorts in the Strait of Hormuz led to a brief pullback in gasoline futures, but the market quickly rebounded.
• The market remains volatile as investors closely monitor developments in the Middle East conflict and the potential impact on oil supply chains, keeping gasoline prices on a rollercoaster ride.