Alcoa Corporation ($AA) Stock Forecast: Down 5.6% Today

What is Alcoa Corporation?

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) is a leading aluminum producer with a strong market presence and positive financial indicators. The company reported robust Q4 2025 earnings, beating expectations and demonstrating solid performance in the aluminum industry.

Why is Alcoa Corporation going down?

AA stock is down 5.6% on Jan 30, 2026 14:43

• Despite Alcoa's strong Q4 earnings beat and positive financial outlook, the stock experienced a bearish movement.
• The notable increase in analysts' price targets and the company's exit from restructuring, along with favorable market dynamics in aluminum, were not enough to prevent the bearish trend.
• The post-earnings dip might have triggered profit-taking by investors who were expecting even higher performance, leading to the downward movement in the stock price.
• The slight revenue decline year-over-year and adjustments for one-off credits mentioned by analysts could have also contributed to the bearish sentiment surrounding Alcoa's stock.

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8 Analysts Have This To Say About Alcoa

Eight analysts have recently weighed in on Alcoa (NYSE: AA), with their price targets showing a notable increase. The average price target is now $56.75, up 17.93% from the previous average of $48.12. Alcoa demonstrates a strong market presence with a high market capitalization, positive revenue growth of 15.16% as of December 31, 2025, and an exceptional net margin of 6.55%.

https://www.benzinga.com/insights/analyst-ratings/26/01/50155248/8-analysts-have-this-to-say-about-alcoa

Alcoa's Post-Q4 Earnings Dip Offers A Buying Opportunity (NYSE:AA)

Alcoa (AA) is presented as a strong "Buy" opportunity after a post-earnings dip, with significant upside potential. The company is exiting restructuring, with key facilities expected to achieve profitability, while regulatory and carbon tariffs are anticipated to provide benefits. Alcoa's current valuation, at approximately 6.4x forward EV/EBITDA, is notably below the sector median, suggesting a compelling investment case.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4862538-alcoa-stock-post-q4-earnings-dip-offers-buying-opportunity

Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Alcoa Corporation reported strong Q4 2025 results, with earnings per share beating expectations at $1.26 versus $0.95. The company highlighted robust financial performance, record production at several smelters and one refinery, and progress on strategic initiatives including the San Ciprian smelter restart and monetizing transformation sites. Alcoa also discussed favorable market dynamics in aluminum, driven by strong fundamentals and regional premiums, while addressing challenges in the alumina segment due to pricing pressures.

https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/alcoa-corporation-nyseaa-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript-1680767/

Alcoa (AA) Reports Q4 Earnings Beat with $226M Net Income Amid Rising Aluminum Prices

Alcoa (AA) reported a strong Q4 earnings beat with a net income of $226 million, exceeding Wall Street expectations, despite a slight 1% revenue decline year-over-year. The company's profitability was boosted by rising aluminum prices and increased production in its alumina and aluminum segments. Alcoa also provided a positive outlook for FY 2026 total alumina production, indicating anticipated productivity improvements and market competitiveness, although some analysts noted adjustments for one-off credits that would affect actual performance.

https://intellectia.ai/news/stock/alcoa-aa-reports-q4-earnings-beat-with-226m-net-income-amid-rising-aluminum-prices

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Alcoa Corporation Price History

29.00.2026 - AA Stock was up 0.2%

• Alcoa's Q4 earnings performance was robust, recording a net income of $226 million, driven by higher aluminum prices and expanded production levels, which bolstered investor interest in the stock.
• Operational enhancements, including restarting smelters and capitalizing on transformation opportunities, underlined Alcoa's improvements and competitiveness in the market, fostering investor optimism.
• Analysts are optimistic about Alcoa's prospects for FY 2026, foreseeing productivity gains and production growth, further enhancing the positive market sentiment towards the company as an appealing investment prospect.

08.00.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.3%

• Alcoa's stock saw a decline despite the overall bullish sentiment in the market, possibly due to a downgrade.
• The surge in options activity and bullish sentiment from investors could indicate a positive outlook for Alcoa's future performance.
• The rise in aluminum prices due to supply constraints and strong demand could have positively impacted Alcoa's stock, but the market movement today might be a short-term correction amidst the recent rally.
• Analysts are expected to raise their price targets for Alcoa as the company's strong financial position and market realities come into play, potentially leading to a rebound in the stock price in the near future.

21.00.2026 - AA Stock was up 6.8%

• A significant increase in stake by an investment management firm indicates growing confidence in Alcoa's potential for future growth.
• Despite beating Q3 EPS expectations, Alcoa's stock has been volatile, reflecting uncertainties in global industrial production and energy markets.
• Mixed analyst ratings and contrasting views on whether the stock's current low valuation is a buying opportunity or a value trap suggest that investors are cautious about Alcoa's ability to navigate macroeconomic headwinds.

06.00.2026 - AA Stock was up 7.4%

• Alcoa's stock (AA) experienced a strong bullish movement, reaching three-year and 52-week highs today, showcasing a robust growth trend over the past year and six months.
• The rally can be attributed to aluminum prices exceeding $3,000 per ton due to supply constraints and high demand from sectors like construction and renewable energy, aligning with Alcoa's strategic focus on lower-carbon aluminum.
• Analysts and investors are optimistic about Alcoa's future performance, with a high target price set at $58, indicating potential undervaluation and strong investor confidence in the company's growth prospects.
• The company's green initiatives and its presence in discussions around commodities and green energy on social media are attracting attention, positioning Alcoa as a potential value play amidst a strong global economic rebound.

16.00.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.2%

• Downgraded Alcoa from "overweight" to "equal weight" but raised its price target to $71, implying an 8.6% upside.
• Despite beating earnings per share estimates, Alcoa's revenue missed the consensus, contributing to the bearish sentiment.
• The recent surge in Alcoa's stock price to a 52-week high of $65.03 USD might have led to concerns about overvaluation, prompting the downgrade and profit-taking by investors.
• The substitution risks and unsustainability of recent stock surges in the aluminum sector could have also played a role in the bearish movement of Alcoa's stock.

19.11.2025 - AA Stock was up 6.3%

• Alcoa's stock reached a 52-week high of $48.13, demonstrating impressive performance and investor confidence following a recent mixed earnings report.
• Analysts and investors are positive about Alcoa's potential earnings growth, driven by strategic actions like acquisitions and operational investments.
• The price target for Alcoa was raised to $45 by JPMorgan, signaling a favorable outlook within the metals and mining industry.
• L1 Capital Pty Ltd boosted its stake in Alcoa, reflecting increasing investor interest in the company's future prospects and contributing to today's bullish market activity.

19.11.2025 - AA Stock was up 5.3%

• Alcoa's stock hitting a 52-week high of $48.13 shows strong performance and investor confidence, despite recent mixed financial results.
• An increased price target for Alcoa to $45 by JPMorgan, based on improved third-quarter earnings and strategic initiatives, has further fueled investor optimism.
• L1 Capital Pty Ltd boosted its stake in Alcoa by 178.8% in Q2, making it their 6th-largest holding, signaling growing institutional faith in the company's future.
• Alcoa's focus on expansion, cost reduction, and positive analyst outlooks with an average target price of $44.19 have all contributed to today's bullish market movement.

23.00.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.2%

• Despite impressive Q4 2025 financial results showcasing revenue growth and operational enhancements, Alcoa (AA) faced a downward trend in the market.
• A decrease in the stock price target by BMO Capital, attributed to a prolonged asset sale schedule, possibly influenced the adverse investor sentiment.
• Operational challenges like a goodwill impairment charge and issues at specific smelting facilities may have raised uncertainties regarding the company's effectiveness and financial performance.
• Alcoa's cautious short-term forecast, anticipating a decrease in profitability despite production increases, might have further eroded investor trust, contributing to the market's negative response to the stock.

30.00.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.6%

• Despite Alcoa's strong Q4 earnings beat and positive financial outlook, the stock experienced a bearish movement.
• The notable increase in analysts' price targets and the company's exit from restructuring, along with favorable market dynamics in aluminum, were not enough to prevent the bearish trend.
• The post-earnings dip might have triggered profit-taking by investors who were expecting even higher performance, leading to the downward movement in the stock price.
• The slight revenue decline year-over-year and adjustments for one-off credits mentioned by analysts could have also contributed to the bearish sentiment surrounding Alcoa's stock.

05.00.2026 - AA Stock was up 5.0%

• The stock of Alcoa surged by 5.2% as aluminum prices exceeded $3,000 per ton due to supply constraints and high demand from construction and renewable energy sectors.
• The company's strategic push towards lower-carbon aluminum production is resonating well with investors, leading to a positive market sentiment.
• Despite a recent earnings miss in Q3 2025, Alcoa's stock hit a 52-week high, showcasing strong investor confidence and robust growth over the past year.
• While Alcoa's stock is attracting attention for its green initiatives and potential value play in a recovering global economy, investors should remain cautious of the stock's volatility and exposure to commodity price risks.

12.10.2025 - AA Stock was up 5.0%

• The bullish movement in Alcoa's stock today could be attributed to the increased bullish stance taken by investors in the options market, with a significant majority opening trades with bullish expectations.
• The options activity indicates that whales, investors with substantial capital, are optimistic about Alcoa's future performance, potentially driving up the stock price.
• This surge in bullish sentiment could be fueled by positive developments within the company, such as strong financial performance or strategic initiatives, leading investors to have confidence in Alcoa's growth prospects.

11.11.2025 - AA Stock was up 5.8%

• AA stock hitting a 52-week high at 44.96 USD indicates a strong bullish movement, showcasing positive investor sentiment towards the company.
• Despite missing analyst expectations in its Q3 2025 earnings, the stock's after-hours increase suggests that investors are optimistic about Alcoa's growth prospects and overall stability.
• The solid fundamentals of Alcoa, including strong revenue growth and a low P/E ratio, coupled with a "GREAT" financial health rating from InvestingPro, have likely contributed to the stock's upward momentum.
• The positive market response to Alcoa's performance reflects confidence in the company's ability to capitalize on opportunities and navigate challenges in the industrial and manufacturing sectors, driving the stock to new highs.