Alcoa Corporation ($AA) Stock Forecast: Down 5.1% Today

What is Alcoa Corporation?

Alcoa Corporation (AA) is a leading producer of aluminum, alumina, and bauxite, with operations in over 10 countries globally, closely linked to the industrial and manufacturing sectors.

Why is Alcoa Corporation going down?

AA stock is down 5.1% on Apr 28, 2026 18:45

• An investment management firm significantly reduced its stake in Alcoa by 56% in the fourth quarter, selling 878,044 shares, possibly indicating a lack of short-term confidence in the company and contributing to a bearish trend.
• Despite Alcoa missing Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, some analysts upgraded the stock to "overweight" with higher price targets, showing varied market sentiment.
• The company's Q1 earnings were lower than expected, but it reported increased output, reaffirming its long-term investment narrative driven by aluminum demand and sustainability initiatives. This suggests that while short-term challenges exist, the overall outlook remains positive.
• Alcoa's earnings fell short despite higher aluminum prices, reflecting operational difficulties affecting profitability and causing investor concern, leading to a decline in the stock value. Internal issues within the company seem to be more prominent than external market conditions.

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ARGA Investment Management LP Has $36.63 Million Holdings in Alcoa $AA

ARGA Investment Management LP significantly reduced its stake in Alcoa by 56% in the fourth quarter, selling 878,044 shares but retaining 689,217 shares worth $36.63 million, making it their 23rd largest holding. Alcoa recently missed Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, reporting EPS of $1.40 against an expected $1.60 and revenue of $3.19 billion versus $3.35 billion, a 5.2% year-over-year decrease. Despite some analyst upgrades to "overweight" and increased price targets, the MarketBeat consensus remains a "Hold" with a target price of $64.27.

https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-arga-investment-management-lp-has-3663-million-holdings-in-alcoa-aa-2026-04-28/

What Alcoa (AA)'s Softer Q1 Earnings and Higher Output Mean For Shareholders

Alcoa (AA) reported softer Q1 2026 earnings with sales easing to US$3,193 million and net income to US$425 million, despite an increase in aluminum production to 607 kmt. The company reaffirmed its 2026 production and shipment guidance for both alumina and aluminum, maintaining confidence in its operational plan. This signals that while short-term earnings are sensitive, the long-term investment narrative for Alcoa, driven by aluminum demand and low-carbon initiatives, remains intact.

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/alcoa-aa-softer-q1-earnings-080640749.html

Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich Cantonalbank Has $5.50 Million Holdings in Alcoa $AA

Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich Cantonalbank increased its stake in Alcoa (NYSE:AA) by 26.6% in the fourth quarter, bringing its total holdings to 103,517 shares valued at $5.50 million. This increase comes despite Alcoa missing its Q1 earnings estimates, reporting $1.40 EPS against an expected $1.60 and a 5.2% year-over-year revenue decline. Analyst sentiment for Alcoa is mixed but shows an upward trend in price targets from several firms, with a MarketBeat consensus of "Hold" and an average target of $61.73.

https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-zurcher-kantonalbank-zurich-cantonalbank-has-550-million-holdings-in-alcoa-aa-2026-04-25/

Alcoa misses expectations despite rising aluminum prices. The stock is falling.

Alcoa (AA) reported earnings that missed analyst expectations, despite a 14% increase in aluminum prices. This shortfall suggests challenges within the company's operations that are impacting its profitability, leading to a decline in its stock value. The market reaction indicates investor concern over Alcoa's performance despite favorable commodity tailwinds.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/alcoa-misses-expectations-despite-rising-aluminum-prices-the-stock-is-falling/ar-AA214cJJ?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds&apiversion=v2&domshim=1&noservercache=1&noservertelemetry=1&batchservertelemetry=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1&bundles=feat-es2020-t

AA Price History for Alcoa Corp Stock

The Barchart.com page for Alcoa Corp (AA) provides historical price data, including daily prices, latest trades, and corporate actions like splits and dividends. Members can access more extensive historical data, with Premier members able to download data going back to 1980, and the page also details 52-week high/low points and Fibonacci levels.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/AA/price-history/historical

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Alcoa Corporation Price History

17.03.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.8%

• The company's shares dropped in after-hours trading due to an expected negative impact on its Alumina segment from higher energy prices amidst the US-Iran conflict, resulting in a 3% decline.
• Despite posting lower-than-expected earnings and revenue for Q1, Alcoa maintained its production and shipment forecasts, displaying resilience in the face of challenges and market volatility.
• Alcoa's strategic efforts include exploring the sale of non-core assets like the Messina East smelter for a data center development, aiming to adapt to changing market conditions and optimize operations.
• The stock's decline, despite increasing aluminum prices, can be linked to a substantial miss on earnings and revenue estimates, driven by elevated energy costs and production challenges, with hopes for improvement in the latter part of the year relying on stable global aluminum demand.

07.03.2026 - AA Stock was up 5.2%

• Perigon Wealth Management LLC and various institutional investors have boosted their stakes in Alcoa, reflecting a growing confidence in the company's trajectory.
• Alcoa outperformed earnings projections with an EPS of $1.26, bolstering the optimism surrounding the stock.
• The rise in Alcoa's stock value is linked to concerns over disruptions in the global aluminum supply chain, leading to increased demand for the company's shares.
• Despite the recent price surge prompted by global supply interruptions, analysts are upholding a "Hold" rating on Alcoa, indicating a prudent stance on the stock's prospective performance.

20.02.2026 - AA Stock was up 5.3%

• Alcoa's stock (AA) saw a notable 4.4% increase attributed to heightened and volatile aluminum prices, influenced by supply-related concerns and tensions in the Middle East. This upward trend was further supported by the positive outlook for 2026, anticipating growth in aluminum production and shipments.
• Despite facing challenges such as potential financial strain indicated by the Altman Z-Score and volatility risks due to its high beta, Alcoa received positive momentum as Citigroup revised its price target to $76, reflecting optimistic views from analysts and adjustments in price projections.
• The robust performance of Alcoa's Aluminum division, driven by strong demand from key sectors and the impact of supply interruptions and trade policies on aluminum prices, has significantly contributed to the company's recent progress and optimistic trajectory.
• In summary, Alcoa's bullish movement today can be linked to favorable market conditions, encouraging analyst recommendations, and the company's strategic efforts to leverage the existing dynamics of the aluminum market.

18.02.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.9%

• Alcoa's stock (AA) had a bearish movement despite positive analyst sentiment and recent upgrades in price targets.
• The elevated and volatile aluminum prices, driven by supply-risk headlines and geopolitical tensions, have positively impacted sentiment for aluminum producers but might have caused uncertainty in the market leading to the bearish movement for Alcoa.
• Investors might be awaiting the upcoming Q1 2026 financial results announcement by Alcoa on April 16, which could provide more clarity on the company's performance and outlook, potentially influencing the stock movement.
• The global aluminum market's rally to multi-year highs due to supply squeezes and disruptions in key production regions could be contributing to the overall market sentiment, affecting Alcoa's stock performance negatively despite the positive industry outlook.

28.03.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.1%

• An investment management firm significantly reduced its stake in Alcoa by 56% in the fourth quarter, selling 878,044 shares, possibly indicating a lack of short-term confidence in the company and contributing to a bearish trend.
• Despite Alcoa missing Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, some analysts upgraded the stock to "overweight" with higher price targets, showing varied market sentiment.
• The company's Q1 earnings were lower than expected, but it reported increased output, reaffirming its long-term investment narrative driven by aluminum demand and sustainability initiatives. This suggests that while short-term challenges exist, the overall outlook remains positive.
• Alcoa's earnings fell short despite higher aluminum prices, reflecting operational difficulties affecting profitability and causing investor concern, leading to a decline in the stock value. Internal issues within the company seem to be more prominent than external market conditions.

10.02.2026 - AA Stock was up 5.0%

• Participation in a recent conference and Q&A session likely provided positive insights to investors, boosting confidence in the company's future prospects.
• The stock hitting a new 52-week high and the announcement of a new executive appointment could have contributed to the bullish momentum, signaling growth and strategic leadership within the company.
• Despite profit-taking and a decline after reaching the new high, the overall market sentiment seems positive, with the stock showing resilience and investor interest.
• Plans to sell sites to the data center industry and strong financial performance in Q4 2025 might have also played a role in driving the bullish movement of Alcoa's stock.

09.03.2026 - AA Stock was up 7.4%

• Alcoa's recent impressive shareholder returns and interest from billionaire Stan Druckenmiller are key factors contributing to the uptrend in the stock.
• Geopolitical tensions affecting aluminum prices, strikes at Persian Gulf aluminum smelters, and strong financial results for Q4 2025 have added to investor confidence in the company.
• Analysts' favorable actions, including B. Riley Securities raising the price target and institutional investors creating new positions, signal a positive outlook on Alcoa's future performance.
• While some analysts maintain a "Hold" rating and express concerns about possible overvaluation, the general market sentiment remains positive. This is supported by the company's solid earnings track record and strategic positioning in the aluminum sector.

13.02.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.1%

• The stock of Alcoa Corp (AA) had a bearish movement despite the recent surge in global aluminum prices and the company's strategic pivot towards AI infrastructure.
• An upgrade of Alcoa's stock rating to Neutral due to supply risks, including concerns over energy costs and alumina pricing, might have contributed to the bearish market movement.
• Despite Alcoa's strong financial performance and positive news such as significant intraday surges and price target upgrades, downside risks highlighted by analysts and potential macro-economic downturns could have weighed on investor sentiment.
• The conflicting factors of positive financial results and strategic initiatives versus supply risks and potential demand destruction likely led to the bearish movement in Alcoa's stock today.

31.02.2026 - AA Stock was up 5.1%

• Alcoa's bullish movement can be attributed to analysts upgrading its earnings outlook, anticipating strong first-quarter results driven by higher aluminum prices due to market disruptions and geopolitical tensions affecting aluminum supply.
• The increase in adjusted EBITDA and surge in stock price are also influenced by strategic moves such as asset sales and a balanced debt-to-equity ratio, enhancing the company's financial stability and growth prospects.
• Despite a short-term negative trend indicated by a bear flag pattern in technical analysis, Alcoa's long-term positive trend and outperformance relative to its industry and the broader market in yearly performance are contributing factors to investor confidence and the stock's upward momentum today.

11.02.2026 - AA Stock was up 5.1%

• Alcoa's strong bullish movement today is linked to the company's recent earnings performance, surpassing EPS and revenue expectations despite a slight revenue decrease compared to the previous year. This positive financial display may have increased investor confidence in the company's growth prospects.
• Alcoa's upcoming participation in the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference, where they will discuss business outlook and financial results influencers, has sparked investor interest and optimism.
• The profit-taking behavior and subsequent dip in Alcoa's shares after achieving a new 52-week high might have been a short-term correction influenced by mixed Wall Street sentiments and the stock's sensitivity to aluminum prices. This intraday volatility does not necessarily indicate a prolonged bearish trend but rather a temporary stock price adjustment.

01.03.2026 - AA Stock was up 5.1%

• Alcoa's stock (AA) experienced a strong bullish movement, rising 3.37% on March 31, driven by several factors:
• The increase in short interest in March may have triggered a short squeeze, leading to a surge in the stock price as bearish traders rushed to cover their positions.
• Analysts' positive outlook on Alcoa's earnings, boosted by market disruptions and higher aluminum prices, likely contributed to investor optimism and buying interest.
• The stock's outperformance in a mixed market environment, as seen with the S&P 500 futures climbing, indicates that Alcoa's unique position in the aluminum industry is attracting investors seeking growth opportunities amidst market volatility.

01.03.2026 - AA Stock was up 8.3%

• Alcoa's stock surged today due to a spike in aluminum prices caused by global supply disruptions, particularly from Middle East attacks, leading to a bullish market movement.
• The increase in short interest in March reflects growing bearish sentiment towards Alcoa, despite strong quarterly earnings and market volatility influenced by geopolitical factors.
• Analysts anticipate strong first-quarter results for Alcoa, with an upgraded earnings outlook driven by higher aluminum prices resulting from market disruptions, particularly the impact of Red Sea disruptions and challenges in selling Russian-produced aluminum.
• Overall, Alcoa's bullish movement can be attributed to the surge in aluminum prices due to supply disruptions, despite uncertainties about long-term earnings growth and potential downside risks as prices normalize.