Alcoa Corporation ($AA) Stock Forecast: Down 5.1% Today

What is Alcoa Corporation?

Alcoa Corporation is a leading producer of aluminum, alumina, and bauxite with operations in over 10 countries. The company's stock, AA, experienced a significant bearish movement in today's market.

Why is Alcoa Corporation going down?

AA stock is down 5.1% on Jun 24, 2026 17:21

• UBS AG autocallable notes linked to Alcoa (AMUB) offered a high 19.05% coupon rate, potentially leading to increased selling pressure on Alcoa's stock as investors may have chosen to take profits or reallocate funds.
• The mixed earnings forecast for Alcoa Corp, with a moderate earnings forecast score and revenue projections, might have contributed to the negative sentiment surrounding the stock, influencing the bearish market movement.
• The combination of profit-taking from the high-coupon notes and cautious investor sentiment due to the earnings forecast could have played a role in the downward pressure on Alcoa's stock price today.

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UBS AG autocallable notes linked to Alcoa (AMUB) with 19.05% coupon

UBS AG is offering Trigger Autocallable Contingent Yield Notes linked to Alcoa Corporation (AMUB) common stock, due June 23, 2028, with a 19.05% per annum contingent coupon rate. These notes pay periodic contingent coupons if the underlying stock meets a coupon barrier, and they autocall early if the underlying closes at or above the initial level. Investors face significant risks, including the potential for total loss of investment, especially if the notes are not automatically called and the final level falls below the downside threshold.

https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/AMUB/424b3-ubs-ag-prospectus-filed-pursuant-to-rule-424-b-3-5a05f8d9c715.html

Alcoa Corp (AA) Earnings Forecast: Future EPS & Revenue Growth Estimates

Alcoa Corp (AA) currently holds an earnings forecast score of 7.60, ranking 72nd in the Metals & Mining industry. Analysts have set an average price target of $42.00, with several supporting a "Buy" trend. The company's expected revenue for the next quarter is $3.99 billion, and earnings per share are projected at $2.20.

https://www.tradingkey.com/markets/stocks/nasdaq-aa/earnings

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Alcoa Corporation Price History

17.03.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.8%

• The company's shares dropped in after-hours trading due to an expected negative impact on its Alumina segment from higher energy prices amidst the US-Iran conflict, resulting in a 3% decline.
• Despite posting lower-than-expected earnings and revenue for Q1, Alcoa maintained its production and shipment forecasts, displaying resilience in the face of challenges and market volatility.
• Alcoa's strategic efforts include exploring the sale of non-core assets like the Messina East smelter for a data center development, aiming to adapt to changing market conditions and optimize operations.
• The stock's decline, despite increasing aluminum prices, can be linked to a substantial miss on earnings and revenue estimates, driven by elevated energy costs and production challenges, with hopes for improvement in the latter part of the year relying on stable global aluminum demand.

18.05.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.2%

• The bearish movement in Alcoa Corp's stock today can be attributed to multiple factors:
• The decline in share price following the ratification of a new labor agreement with the United Steelworkers union may have raised concerns among investors about potential impacts on operational costs and profitability.
• The upcoming earnings release announcement for the second quarter of 2026 could have also contributed to investor uncertainty and caution, leading to selling pressure on the stock.
• The broader context of the ongoing battle for critical metals may have added to market volatility and influenced investor sentiment towards Alcoa Corp.
• Overall, the combination of labor agreement news, upcoming earnings release, and industry dynamics likely played a role in the bearish movement of Alcoa Corp's stock today.

13.04.2026 - AA Stock was up 5.2%

• The stock saw a bullish movement following positive insider activities, with directors receiving stock grants and engaging in insider trading, indicating confidence in the company's future prospects.
• Shareholder approval of an expanded stock and incentive plan, along with the election of all board nominees, showcased strong support for Alcoa's governance and strategic direction, boosting investor confidence.
• The announcement of a significant capital investment in expanding production capabilities in Norway highlighted Alcoa's commitment to innovation and sustainability, attracting investor interest and contributing to the bullish market movement.
• Overall, the combination of positive insider activities, shareholder support for governance initiatives, and strategic investments in production expansion likely contributed to the bullish momentum in Alcoa's stock today.

28.03.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.1%

• An investment management firm significantly reduced its stake in Alcoa by 56% in the fourth quarter, selling 878,044 shares, possibly indicating a lack of short-term confidence in the company and contributing to a bearish trend.
• Despite Alcoa missing Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, some analysts upgraded the stock to "overweight" with higher price targets, showing varied market sentiment.
• The company's Q1 earnings were lower than expected, but it reported increased output, reaffirming its long-term investment narrative driven by aluminum demand and sustainability initiatives. This suggests that while short-term challenges exist, the overall outlook remains positive.
• Alcoa's earnings fell short despite higher aluminum prices, reflecting operational difficulties affecting profitability and causing investor concern, leading to a decline in the stock value. Internal issues within the company seem to be more prominent than external market conditions.

09.05.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.1%

• Alcoa's stock had a bearish movement today despite its recent positive performance and multiple growth catalysts.
• The increased price target by analysts and strategic partnerships were not enough to offset the downward pressure on the stock.
• The bearish movement could be attributed to profit-taking by investors after the recent rally in the stock price.
• Despite the setback, Alcoa's long-term prospects remain promising, supported by its position in decarbonization trends and sustainable product innovation.

22.04.2026 - AA Stock was up 10.8%

• An upgrade of Alcoa's stock rating to Buy from Neutral and a raised price target were driven by expectations of supply constraints in the aluminum market, leading to anticipated price increases and enhanced financial performance.
• Despite Alcoa's recent Q1 2026 financial results falling short of analyst expectations, the positive outlook from UBS regarding improved EBITDA, free cash flow, and potential debt reduction through divestments has boosted investor confidence.
• A 5.3% decrease in Alcoa's stock price is potentially linked to concerns raised about significant overvaluation by GF Value™, prompting investor caution due to the perceived gap between the current price and the stock's intrinsic value.
• The contrasting perspectives of UBS's optimistic upgrade and the GF Value™ assessment underscore the uncertainty and volatility surrounding Alcoa's stock, underscoring the need for thorough analysis and risk management in investment strategies.

15.04.2026 - AA Stock was down 6.7%

• The bearish movement in Alcoa's stock (AA) today could be attributed to the following factors:
• Despite the positive news of investing $65 million to expand low-carbon aluminum production, the market may have reacted negatively due to concerns about the extended timeline for the project completion by 2028.
• The insider trading activity, where directors received stock grants at $0.00 per share, might have raised questions about the company's valuation and future performance, leading to investor uncertainty.
• While Wells Fargo upgraded Alcoa's stock recently, the overall market sentiment could have been influenced by broader economic factors or industry-specific challenges impacting aluminum prices.
• Investors may be cautious about the potential risks associated with the expansion project and the need for Alcoa to effectively capitalize on the demand for low-carbon and recycled-content aluminum in key sectors like automotive and packaging.

05.05.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.1%

• Today's decline in Alcoa's stock is likely due to investors selling off shares to secure profits following a period of strong growth.
• Despite recent upgrades to price targets and positive sentiments, the market may have considered the stock overvalued, resulting in the downward trend.
• The rise in aluminum prices and the company's robust operational results might have already been factored into the stock price, prompting some investors to be cautious and realize their gains.
• In essence, today's bearish movement could be a brief market correction following the rapid surge in Alcoa's stock price, rather than indicating any underlying issues with the company.

12.04.2026 - AA Stock was down 2.9%

• An expanded stock and incentive plan approval, alongside a quarterly dividend declaration, usually suggests a positive company outlook. However, the stock's bearish movement may be linked to investor disappointment with the dividend amount of $0.10 per share.
• Despite robust investor support for governance proposals at the Annual Meeting, market response indicates a focus on the company's first-quarter earnings miss and revenue shortfall in 2026.
• The stock downturn today could be due to a combination of previous quarter earnings falling short of analyst expectations and the dividend announcement, introducing uncertainty among investors.
• Despite positive reactions to the company's strategic decisions and governance, market sentiment appears to be more influenced by recent financial performance, culminating in the current bearish trend.

20.04.2026 - AA Stock was up 5.1%

• Despite being considered significantly overvalued, Alcoa Corp's stock experienced a strong bullish movement, with a GF Score™ of 60/100.
• The $65 million investment by Alcoa to expand low-carbon aluminum production in Norway, integrating recycled content for the first time, has likely contributed to the positive market sentiment.
• Wells Fargo's recent upgrade to an Overweight rating and raised price target of $70, citing persistent aluminum price strength and potential benefits from market conditions, further boosted investor confidence in Alcoa.
• The company's strategic initiatives towards low-carbon production and capacity expansion, coupled with favorable analyst outlook, have propelled the stock's upward trajectory.

02.05.2026 - AA Stock was up 6.2%

• Alcoa (AA) saw a notable uptrend today, recording a 7.71% increase in its intraday trading, peaking at USD 72.82.
• This bullish movement is driven by Alcoa's solid financial position, minimal debt burden, and consistently positive quarterly results, boosting investor confidence.
• Despite falling short of Q1 2026 earnings expectations, the positive industry outlook for materials, buoyed by heightened demand in industrial and infrastructure sectors, has fueled Alcoa's upward trajectory.
• Anticipation surrounding Alcoa's upcoming participation in the Wells Fargo Industrial and Materials Conference is also contributing to investor enthusiasm, notwithstanding the stock's evaluation as overvalued according to the GF Value™ metric.

24.05.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.1%

• UBS AG autocallable notes linked to Alcoa (AMUB) offered a high 19.05% coupon rate, potentially leading to increased selling pressure on Alcoa's stock as investors may have chosen to take profits or reallocate funds.
• The mixed earnings forecast for Alcoa Corp, with a moderate earnings forecast score and revenue projections, might have contributed to the negative sentiment surrounding the stock, influencing the bearish market movement.
• The combination of profit-taking from the high-coupon notes and cautious investor sentiment due to the earnings forecast could have played a role in the downward pressure on Alcoa's stock price today.