Alcoa Corporation ($AA) Stock Forecast: Down 6.1% Today

What is Alcoa Corporation?

Alcoa (AA) is a leading aluminum producer benefiting from increased demand for aluminum and strong segment performance in the market.

Why is Alcoa Corporation going down?

AA stock is down 6.1% on Feb 13, 2026 15:16

• Despite Alcoa's recent surge in stock price and positive analyst sentiment, the stock experienced a bearish movement today.
• Participation in the BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference may have raised investor expectations, leading to profit-taking and a bearish market movement.
• The discrepancy between Wall Street analysts' average target price and GuruFocus' estimate of potential downside could have contributed to the bearish sentiment among investors.
• Overall, the bearish movement in Alcoa's stock today could be a result of profit-taking following the recent impressive growth and investor uncertainty regarding the stock's valuation.

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AA News

Alcoa Surges 65.4% in 3 Months: Is the Stock Still Worth Buying?

Alcoa (AA) has shown impressive growth, surging 65.4% in the last three months, outperforming its industry and the S&P 500, due to increasing demand for aluminum, beneficial tariffs, and strong segment performance. The company's strategic acquisitions and positive analyst sentiment, coupled with a decent valuation, suggest it remains a strong buy. Alcoa is benefiting from increased production capacity and robust growth projections for its Aluminum and Alumina segments.

https://finviz.com/news/309661/alcoa-surges-654-in-3-months-is-the-stock-still-worth-buying

Alcoa to field investor questions at BMO metals outlook event

Alcoa Corporation will participate in a live webcast session at the BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference on February 24, 2026. An Alcoa executive will conduct a Q&A session regarding the company's business and market outlook. A slide presentation and a webcast of the session will be available on Alcoa's investor relations website.

https://www.stocktitan.net/news/AA/alcoa-to-participate-in-bmo-2026-global-metals-mining-critical-s90yw9i3fjr5.html

Alcoa Corp (AA) Shares Up 4.2% on Feb 6

Alcoa Corp (AA) shares rose 4.20% on February 6th, closing at $58.75. The stock is 12.25% below its 52-week high but 172.88% above its 52-week low. While Wall Street analysts have an average target price of $62.22 with an "Outperform" recommendation, GuruFocus estimates a one-year GF Value of $29.53, suggesting a potential downside of 49.74%.

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8591325/alcoa-corp-aa-shares-up-42-on-feb-6

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Alcoa Corporation Price History

29.00.2026 - AA Stock was up 0.2%

• Alcoa's Q4 earnings performance was robust, recording a net income of $226 million, driven by higher aluminum prices and expanded production levels, which bolstered investor interest in the stock.
• Operational enhancements, including restarting smelters and capitalizing on transformation opportunities, underlined Alcoa's improvements and competitiveness in the market, fostering investor optimism.
• Analysts are optimistic about Alcoa's prospects for FY 2026, foreseeing productivity gains and production growth, further enhancing the positive market sentiment towards the company as an appealing investment prospect.

30.00.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.6%

• Despite Alcoa's strong Q4 earnings beat and positive financial outlook, the stock experienced a bearish movement.
• The notable increase in analysts' price targets and the company's exit from restructuring, along with favorable market dynamics in aluminum, were not enough to prevent the bearish trend.
• The post-earnings dip might have triggered profit-taking by investors who were expecting even higher performance, leading to the downward movement in the stock price.
• The slight revenue decline year-over-year and adjustments for one-off credits mentioned by analysts could have also contributed to the bearish sentiment surrounding Alcoa's stock.

03.01.2026 - AA Stock was up 7.0%

• Recent increases in positions by Convergence Investment Partners LLC, Norges Bank, and L1 Capital are indicative of growing confidence in Alcoa's future prospects.
• Alcoa's strong performance in Q3, surpassing analyst estimates, likely fueled the positive movement in the stock.
• Analysts' average price targets for Alcoa have been raised to $56.75, reflecting optimism about the company's performance and potential growth.
• The bullish trend in Alcoa's stock can be attributed to its positive earnings report, institutional investments, and favorable analyst outlook on the company's future.

13.01.2026 - AA Stock was down 6.1%

• Despite Alcoa's recent surge in stock price and positive analyst sentiment, the stock experienced a bearish movement today.
• Participation in the BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference may have raised investor expectations, leading to profit-taking and a bearish market movement.
• The discrepancy between Wall Street analysts' average target price and GuruFocus' estimate of potential downside could have contributed to the bearish sentiment among investors.
• Overall, the bearish movement in Alcoa's stock today could be a result of profit-taking following the recent impressive growth and investor uncertainty regarding the stock's valuation.

08.00.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.3%

• Alcoa's stock saw a decline despite the overall bullish sentiment in the market, possibly due to a downgrade.
• The surge in options activity and bullish sentiment from investors could indicate a positive outlook for Alcoa's future performance.
• The rise in aluminum prices due to supply constraints and strong demand could have positively impacted Alcoa's stock, but the market movement today might be a short-term correction amidst the recent rally.
• Analysts are expected to raise their price targets for Alcoa as the company's strong financial position and market realities come into play, potentially leading to a rebound in the stock price in the near future.

21.00.2026 - AA Stock was up 6.8%

• A significant increase in stake by an investment management firm indicates growing confidence in Alcoa's potential for future growth.
• Despite beating Q3 EPS expectations, Alcoa's stock has been volatile, reflecting uncertainties in global industrial production and energy markets.
• Mixed analyst ratings and contrasting views on whether the stock's current low valuation is a buying opportunity or a value trap suggest that investors are cautious about Alcoa's ability to navigate macroeconomic headwinds.

06.00.2026 - AA Stock was up 7.4%

• Alcoa's stock (AA) experienced a strong bullish movement, reaching three-year and 52-week highs today, showcasing a robust growth trend over the past year and six months.
• The rally can be attributed to aluminum prices exceeding $3,000 per ton due to supply constraints and high demand from sectors like construction and renewable energy, aligning with Alcoa's strategic focus on lower-carbon aluminum.
• Analysts and investors are optimistic about Alcoa's future performance, with a high target price set at $58, indicating potential undervaluation and strong investor confidence in the company's growth prospects.
• The company's green initiatives and its presence in discussions around commodities and green energy on social media are attracting attention, positioning Alcoa as a potential value play amidst a strong global economic rebound.

16.00.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.2%

• Downgraded Alcoa from "overweight" to "equal weight" but raised its price target to $71, implying an 8.6% upside.
• Despite beating earnings per share estimates, Alcoa's revenue missed the consensus, contributing to the bearish sentiment.
• The recent surge in Alcoa's stock price to a 52-week high of $65.03 USD might have led to concerns about overvaluation, prompting the downgrade and profit-taking by investors.
• The substitution risks and unsustainability of recent stock surges in the aluminum sector could have also played a role in the bearish movement of Alcoa's stock.

12.01.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.0%

• AA stock saw a notable downward movement recently, possibly linked to profit-taking following a period of upward momentum.
• The company's involvement in the BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference may have sparked investor uncertainties regarding future growth prospects.
• Despite a price surge on February 6th, the significant variance between the average target price of $62.22 and GuruFocus' projected downside of 49.74% might have influenced the prevailing bearish sentiment.
• Investors appear to be reassessing their positions in AA stock amidst market volatility and considerations about the company's long-term growth trajectory.

05.01.2026 - AA Stock was down 7.5%

• Shares of Alcoa (AA) declined today following a downgrade by analysts to Equal Weight from Overweight, despite a price target increase to $64 from $52. This shift was based on the stock's strong performance, aiming for a more balanced risk-return ratio.
• Despite the downgrade, institutional investors such as Convergence Investment Partners LLC and Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp purchased Alcoa shares, signaling confidence in the company's future.
• Analysts have a mixed outlook on Alcoa, with a consensus "Hold" rating and a target price of $48.25, reflecting uncertainty in the market given recent adjustments in price targets.
• While Alcoa's robust Q4 2025 earnings and future production goals are positive factors, market sentiment appears to have been swayed by recent analyst actions regarding downgrades and target price revisions.

23.00.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.2%

• Despite impressive Q4 2025 financial results showcasing revenue growth and operational enhancements, Alcoa (AA) faced a downward trend in the market.
• A decrease in the stock price target by BMO Capital, attributed to a prolonged asset sale schedule, possibly influenced the adverse investor sentiment.
• Operational challenges like a goodwill impairment charge and issues at specific smelting facilities may have raised uncertainties regarding the company's effectiveness and financial performance.
• Alcoa's cautious short-term forecast, anticipating a decrease in profitability despite production increases, might have further eroded investor trust, contributing to the market's negative response to the stock.

05.00.2026 - AA Stock was up 5.0%

• The stock of Alcoa surged by 5.2% as aluminum prices exceeded $3,000 per ton due to supply constraints and high demand from construction and renewable energy sectors.
• The company's strategic push towards lower-carbon aluminum production is resonating well with investors, leading to a positive market sentiment.
• Despite a recent earnings miss in Q3 2025, Alcoa's stock hit a 52-week high, showcasing strong investor confidence and robust growth over the past year.
• While Alcoa's stock is attracting attention for its green initiatives and potential value play in a recovering global economy, investors should remain cautious of the stock's volatility and exposure to commodity price risks.