Alcoa Corporation ($AA) Stock Forecast: Down 5.2% Today

What is Alcoa Corporation?

Alcoa is a leading aluminum producer with a market capitalization of $16.89 billion. The stock had a bearish movement today.

Why is Alcoa Corporation going down?

AA stock is down 5.2% on Jan 16, 2026 17:15

• Downgraded Alcoa from "overweight" to "equal weight" but raised its price target to $71, implying an 8.6% upside.
• Despite beating earnings per share estimates, Alcoa's revenue missed the consensus, contributing to the bearish sentiment.
• The recent surge in Alcoa's stock price to a 52-week high of $65.03 USD might have led to concerns about overvaluation, prompting the downgrade and profit-taking by investors.
• The substitution risks and unsustainability of recent stock surges in the aluminum sector could have also played a role in the bearish movement of Alcoa's stock.

AA Price Chart

AA Technical Analysis

AA News

Alcoa (NYSE:AA) Cut to "Equal Weight" at Wells Fargo & Company

Wells Fargo & Company downgraded Alcoa (NYSE:AA) from "overweight" to "equal weight" but raised its price target to $71, implying an 8.6% upside. Despite the downgrade, the new price target is significantly higher than the current analyst consensus of $48.83, which rates the stock as "Hold." Alcoa recently reported an EPS of ($0.02), beating estimates, but revenue missed the consensus.

https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/alcoa-nyseaa-cut-to-equal-weight-at-wells-fargo-company-2026-01-14/

Alcoa (AA) and Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Downgraded by Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo has downgraded Alcoa (AA) and Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) from Overweight to Equal Weight, citing substitution risks and recent stock surge unsustainability. Despite the downgrade, Alcoa's price target increased to $71 due to limited aluminum exposure, while Kaiser Aluminum's target rose to $120. Conversely, Constellium (CSTM) received an upgrade, benefiting from market conditions.

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/4109389/alcoa-aa-and-kaiser-aluminum-kalu-downgraded-by-wells-fargo

Alcoa stock hits 52-week high at 65.11 USD By Investing.com

Alcoa (AA) stock reached a new 52-week high of $65.03 USD, marking a significant milestone supported by a 79.57% one-year return and a market capitalization of $16.89 billion. This surge is attributed to strong aluminum demand and strategic business initiatives, despite recent Q3 2025 earnings missing analyst expectations and a JPMorgan downgrade from Neutral to Underweight due to valuation concerns. InvestingPro data indicates the stock might be slightly overvalued, but analysts expect net income growth for the year.

https://ng.investing.com/news/company-news/alcoa-stock-hits-52week-high-at-6511-usd-93CH-2285247

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Alcoa Corporation Price History

21.09.2025 - AA Stock was down 5.2%

• Alcoa (AA) witnessed a considerable bearish movement recently.
• The upcoming Q3 earnings are expected to reveal higher revenues but weaker earnings due to challenges like Aluminum gains offset by Alumina and currency headwinds.
• Despite an increase in quality score and optimistic projections for key metrics, concerns regarding earnings performance and market conditions might put pressure on the stock.
• Investors in the materials sector, including Alcoa (AA), may exercise caution as momentum indicators suggest potential risks, potentially contributing to the downward movement in the stock.

04.10.2025 - AA Stock was down 5.2%

• Whales taking a bullish stance on Alcoa could be seen as a contrarian indicator, suggesting that retail investors might have taken the opposite side of the trade, leading to the bearish movement.
• The presence of significant institutional or wealthy individual trades could have influenced market sentiment, causing a shift in the stock's direction.
• It's possible that the market interpreted the whale activity as a signal of potential overvaluation or upcoming challenges for Alcoa, triggering a sell-off among investors.

24.09.2025 - AA Stock was down 5.4%

• Alcoa's stock declined following the disclosure of a third-quarter earnings shortfall, reporting losses of two cents per share compared to analyst projections of one cent per share, indicating weaker financial performance.
• The company's unfavorable earnings announcement coupled with a reduced full-year outlook influenced negative market sentiment, resulting in a sharp drop in the stock price.
• Analysts had adjusted their forecasts prior to the earnings release, expecting a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, reflecting concerns about Alcoa's financial well-being.
• Even with anticipated growth in revenues, Alcoa encountered obstacles such as Aluminum gains being counteracted by Alumina and currency challenges, impacting its profitability and investor confidence.

08.00.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.3%

• Alcoa's stock saw a decline despite the overall bullish sentiment in the market, possibly due to a downgrade.
• The surge in options activity and bullish sentiment from investors could indicate a positive outlook for Alcoa's future performance.
• The rise in aluminum prices due to supply constraints and strong demand could have positively impacted Alcoa's stock, but the market movement today might be a short-term correction amidst the recent rally.
• Analysts are expected to raise their price targets for Alcoa as the company's strong financial position and market realities come into play, potentially leading to a rebound in the stock price in the near future.

06.00.2026 - AA Stock was up 7.4%

• Alcoa's stock (AA) experienced a strong bullish movement, reaching three-year and 52-week highs today, showcasing a robust growth trend over the past year and six months.
• The rally can be attributed to aluminum prices exceeding $3,000 per ton due to supply constraints and high demand from sectors like construction and renewable energy, aligning with Alcoa's strategic focus on lower-carbon aluminum.
• Analysts and investors are optimistic about Alcoa's future performance, with a high target price set at $58, indicating potential undervaluation and strong investor confidence in the company's growth prospects.
• The company's green initiatives and its presence in discussions around commodities and green energy on social media are attracting attention, positioning Alcoa as a potential value play amidst a strong global economic rebound.

16.00.2026 - AA Stock was down 5.2%

• Downgraded Alcoa from "overweight" to "equal weight" but raised its price target to $71, implying an 8.6% upside.
• Despite beating earnings per share estimates, Alcoa's revenue missed the consensus, contributing to the bearish sentiment.
• The recent surge in Alcoa's stock price to a 52-week high of $65.03 USD might have led to concerns about overvaluation, prompting the downgrade and profit-taking by investors.
• The substitution risks and unsustainability of recent stock surges in the aluminum sector could have also played a role in the bearish movement of Alcoa's stock.

23.09.2025 - AA Stock was up 5.7%

• Quarterly losses of two cents per share were reported, falling short of expectations by analysts. This may have led to a temporary stock decline.
• Investors may have responded positively to the prospect of increased revenues in the next quarter, offsetting weaker earnings impacted by challenges in Aluminum gains.
• Speculation surrounding the earnings and updated forecasts from analysts likely sparked optimism among investors, driving the stock's bullish movement.
• Despite the initial earnings disappointment, the prevailing market sentiment towards Alcoa appears upbeat, with attention shifting towards the potential revenue growth in the near term.

19.11.2025 - AA Stock was up 6.3%

• Alcoa's stock reached a 52-week high of $48.13, demonstrating impressive performance and investor confidence following a recent mixed earnings report.
• Analysts and investors are positive about Alcoa's potential earnings growth, driven by strategic actions like acquisitions and operational investments.
• The price target for Alcoa was raised to $45 by JPMorgan, signaling a favorable outlook within the metals and mining industry.
• L1 Capital Pty Ltd boosted its stake in Alcoa, reflecting increasing investor interest in the company's future prospects and contributing to today's bullish market activity.

19.11.2025 - AA Stock was up 5.3%

• Alcoa's stock hitting a 52-week high of $48.13 shows strong performance and investor confidence, despite recent mixed financial results.
• An increased price target for Alcoa to $45 by JPMorgan, based on improved third-quarter earnings and strategic initiatives, has further fueled investor optimism.
• L1 Capital Pty Ltd boosted its stake in Alcoa by 178.8% in Q2, making it their 6th-largest holding, signaling growing institutional faith in the company's future.
• Alcoa's focus on expansion, cost reduction, and positive analyst outlooks with an average target price of $44.19 have all contributed to today's bullish market movement.

05.00.2026 - AA Stock was up 5.0%

• The stock of Alcoa surged by 5.2% as aluminum prices exceeded $3,000 per ton due to supply constraints and high demand from construction and renewable energy sectors.
• The company's strategic push towards lower-carbon aluminum production is resonating well with investors, leading to a positive market sentiment.
• Despite a recent earnings miss in Q3 2025, Alcoa's stock hit a 52-week high, showcasing strong investor confidence and robust growth over the past year.
• While Alcoa's stock is attracting attention for its green initiatives and potential value play in a recovering global economy, investors should remain cautious of the stock's volatility and exposure to commodity price risks.

12.10.2025 - AA Stock was up 5.0%

• The bullish movement in Alcoa's stock today could be attributed to the increased bullish stance taken by investors in the options market, with a significant majority opening trades with bullish expectations.
• The options activity indicates that whales, investors with substantial capital, are optimistic about Alcoa's future performance, potentially driving up the stock price.
• This surge in bullish sentiment could be fueled by positive developments within the company, such as strong financial performance or strategic initiatives, leading investors to have confidence in Alcoa's growth prospects.

11.11.2025 - AA Stock was up 5.8%

• AA stock hitting a 52-week high at 44.96 USD indicates a strong bullish movement, showcasing positive investor sentiment towards the company.
• Despite missing analyst expectations in its Q3 2025 earnings, the stock's after-hours increase suggests that investors are optimistic about Alcoa's growth prospects and overall stability.
• The solid fundamentals of Alcoa, including strong revenue growth and a low P/E ratio, coupled with a "GREAT" financial health rating from InvestingPro, have likely contributed to the stock's upward momentum.
• The positive market response to Alcoa's performance reflects confidence in the company's ability to capitalize on opportunities and navigate challenges in the industrial and manufacturing sectors, driving the stock to new highs.