Gold ($XAU) Commodity Forecast: Up 5.1% Today

What is Gold?

Gold, a precious metal often seen as a safe-haven asset, experienced a bullish movement today in the market.

Why is Gold going up?

XAU commodity is up 5.1% on Feb 4, 2026 2:05

• Gold surged above $5,000 per ounce, marking its biggest daily gain since 2008, as geopolitical tensions, including US-Iran drone incident, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts influenced investor sentiment.
• The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, perceived as more hawkish, initially triggered a selloff in gold, but bargain hunting and safe-haven demand eventually led to a rebound in prices.
• The recent volatility in gold prices was also impacted by concerns over the Fed's independence, central bank purchases, and global uncertainty, reinforcing gold's appeal as a hedge against economic and geopolitical risks.
• Despite recent fluctuations, gold's long-term performance remains strong, with a significant increase over the past 12 months, showcasing its enduring status as a valuable asset in times of market uncertainty.

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Gold Returns to $5,000

Gold climbed back above the key $5,000 per ounce level on Wednesday, building on a more than 6% surge in the previous session, the biggest daily gain since 2008, as dip buyers stepped in following a sharp pullback earlier in the week. Geopolitical tensions also lifted the metal’s safe-haven appeal after US forces downed an Iranian drone near an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, although President Donald Trump said diplomacy remains active, with the White House confirming US-Iran talks are still scheduled for Friday. Meanwhile, expectations for rapid Federal Reserve rate cuts eased after Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, though markets still price in two cuts this year, likely around mid-year and later in 2026. Separately, key US labor data, including JOLTS and the monthly jobs report, will be delayed by the partial government shutdown, while House Republicans are set to vote Tuesday on a Senate-approved funding package.

Gold Surges Over 6%

Gold surged more than 6% to around $4,950 per ounce on Tuesday, on track for its biggest daily gain since November 2008, as prices rebounded sharply from the steepest two-day decline in decades. Bullion had slid to as low as $4,405 on Monday, as investors locked in profits after a powerful rally that pushed prices to a record above $5,600 on Thursday. The move followed President Trump’s nomination of former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, a pick seen as more hawkish than other contenders. While investors still expect Warsh to ultimately support rate cuts, they also anticipate a tighter approach to balance-sheet policy. Meanwhile, the US BLS said on Monday that its closely watched January nonfarm payrolls report will be delayed due to a partial federal government shutdown. Geopolitical developments also remained in focus, with US-Iran talks scheduled for Friday and Ukraine preparing for renewed peace negotiations after fresh Russian strikes.

Gold Rebounds After Sharp Selloff

Gold rose more than 4% to around $4,850 per ounce on Tuesday, as bargain hunting emerged after two days of dramatic selloffs. The precious metal had fallen nearly 5% in the previous session, extending Friday’s sharp losses, which marked its steepest decline in more than a decade. The recent slump was triggered by news of President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, who is viewed as more hawkish than other contenders, raising concerns about tighter monetary policy. Despite recent volatility, gold remained supported by strong central bank purchases and the so-called “debasement trade,” as investors rotated into physical assets from currencies and bonds amid growing fiscal concerns. Global uncertainty, as well as worries over the Federal Reserve’s independence, further reinforced gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Gold Rout Shows Signs of Easing

Gold prices fell about 4% to below $4,700 per ounce on the first trading day of February, after plunging as much as 10% during the Asian session and following a 9% tumble on Friday. Friday’s rout was triggered by US President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh, widely viewed as a more hawkish choice, to lead the Fed, a move that boosted the dollar and weighed on the yellow metal. Profit-taking also set in after a relentless rally that had pushed gold to record highs. That advance was driven by strong central bank demand and the so-called “debasement trade,” as investors rotated into physical assets from currencies and bonds amid concerns over rising government debt. Heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty, along with worries about the Fed’s independence, further reinforced gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Gold Hits 4-week Low

Gold decreased to 4404.00 USD/t.oz, the lowest since January 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Gold lost 0.58%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 57.11%.

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Gold Price History

03.01.2026 - XAU Commodity was up 5.2%

• Gold prices climbed by more than 6% to approximately $4,950 per ounce, marking the largest single-day increase since November 2008. This rally followed a notable recovery from substantial declines in previous trading sessions.
• The surge in gold prices was driven by investors capitalizing on undervalued assets following a steep market drop. This trend emerged as market participants turned to tangible assets amid fears of stricter monetary policies linked to the potential appointment of a more hawkish Federal Reserve Chair.
• Despite recent market turbulence, gold continued to benefit from robust central bank acquisitions, the allure of the "debasement trade," and global instability. These factors reinforced its reputation as a safe-haven asset during periods of financial and geopolitical upheaval.
• Various influences, such as profit-taking after a prolonged rally, escalating geopolitical conflicts, concerns regarding the autonomy of the Federal Reserve, and momentum-driven buying, contributed to the volatility in gold prices.

03.01.2026 - XAU Commodity was up 5.6%

• Gold rebounded strongly today after experiencing sharp selloffs in the previous sessions, as bargain hunting emerged, indicating renewed investor interest in the precious metal.
• The bullish movement can be attributed to concerns over tighter monetary policy following a notable nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chair, who is perceived as more hawkish, leading investors to seek refuge in gold.
• Despite the recent slump and profit-taking, gold's safe-haven appeal remained intact, supported by strong central bank purchases, global uncertainty, and worries over the Federal Reserve's independence.
• The market movement suggests that gold's resilience as a hedge against economic and geopolitical risks continues to attract investors, even amidst heightened volatility and fluctuations in prices.

30.00.2026 - XAU Commodity was down 5.1%

• Today, Gold experienced a strong bearish movement despite its recent record-breaking rally and strong performance throughout the month. The market movement can be attributed to the following factors:
• Investors taking profits after a significant rally and hitting record highs, leading to a temporary pullback in prices.
• Geopolitical tensions, including threats related to tariffs and warnings of retaliation, adding uncertainty and volatility to the market.
• Comments on the US dollar's weakness and tolerance for currency depreciation, impacting gold prices inversely.
• The decision to keep interest rates unchanged, with hints of potential future policy easing, influencing market sentiment and gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

30.00.2026 - XAU Commodity was down 6.9%

• Gold prices tumbled over 5% to around $5,100 as profit-taking ensued after a record surge, marking a stark pullback from recent highs.
• The decline in gold prices was triggered by profit-taking following a sharp rally that pushed bullion to a record $5,608, fueled by economic and geopolitical uncertainties alongside sustained US dollar weakness.
• President Trump's executive order imposing tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the nomination of a new Fed chair added to the market volatility, leading to the bearish movement in gold prices.
• Despite the pullback, gold is still on track for a 17% monthly gain, reflecting the metal's status as a safe-haven asset during times of global uncertainty.

04.01.2026 - XAU Commodity was up 5.1%

• Gold surged above $5,000 per ounce, marking its biggest daily gain since 2008, as geopolitical tensions, including US-Iran drone incident, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts influenced investor sentiment.
• The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, perceived as more hawkish, initially triggered a selloff in gold, but bargain hunting and safe-haven demand eventually led to a rebound in prices.
• The recent volatility in gold prices was also impacted by concerns over the Fed's independence, central bank purchases, and global uncertainty, reinforcing gold's appeal as a hedge against economic and geopolitical risks.
• Despite recent fluctuations, gold's long-term performance remains strong, with a significant increase over the past 12 months, showcasing its enduring status as a valuable asset in times of market uncertainty.

29.00.2026 - XAU Commodity was down 1.3%

• Gold prices plummeted despite record-breaking rallies in recent days, indicating a possible profit-taking behavior among investors.
• The bearish movement could be attributed to the US dollar gaining strength, as President Trump's comments about the dollar's weakness and potential tariff threats may have reassured investors in the greenback.
• The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady, with only two officials favoring a cut, might have signaled a more optimistic outlook on the economy, leading investors to shift away from safe-haven assets like gold.
• Despite the bearish movement, the overall uncertainty in global markets due to geopolitical tensions and policy risks could still provide support for gold in the near future.

28.00.2026 - XAU Commodity was up 6.4%

• Gold surged over 2% to nearly $5,300 per ounce, hitting record highs as a weaker US dollar and policy uncertainties fueled demand for safe-haven assets.
• President Trump's comments downplaying the dollar's decline and ongoing tariff threats, along with the Federal Reserve's steady stance on interest rates, contributed to the rally in gold.
• The market movement was also supported by central bank buying, ETF inflows, and heightened geopolitical tensions, showcasing gold's appeal as a safe-haven investment during uncertain times.
• Gold's remarkable performance, with a 20% increase year-to-date, reflects investor confidence in the metal amid global economic and political uncertainties.

12.11.2025 - XAU Commodity was up 1.0%

• Gold prices surged as a central bank signaled a dovish stance, with a key figure hinting at potential further rate cuts, leading traders to price in additional easing measures.
• Geopolitical risks added to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, driving up demand.
• Certain political incidents further supported precious metals, contributing to the bullish movement in gold prices.
• Overall, the combination of monetary policy expectations, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank actions created a favorable environment for gold, pushing prices higher and extending its bullish trend.

02.01.2026 - XAU Commodity was down 5.4%

• Gold prices plunged over 3% to below $4,800 per ounce following reports of US President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh, a more hawkish choice for the Federal Reserve chair, triggering profit-taking after a relentless rally.
• The bearish movement was exacerbated by profit-taking and a broader pullback across precious metals, fueled by concerns over surging government debt, heightened geopolitical tensions, and worries about the Fed's independence.
• President Trump's executive order imposing tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba and escalating tensions with Iran added pressure on gold prices, despite a recent strong monthly performance of over 20%, the best since the 1980s.
• The overall market sentiment towards gold shifted as investors reacted to a combination of factors, including the Fed's monetary policy decisions, geopolitical risks, and the ongoing weakness in the US dollar, ultimately leading to the significant bearish movement in the precious metal today.

21.00.2026 - XAU Commodity was up 0.1%

• Gold price surged by 2% to $4,858.85 per ounce, hitting a new all-time high as tensions over Greenland and possible military actions led to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets.
• Recent announcements by President Trump regarding tariffs on European nations and his potential interest in acquiring Greenland have added to geopolitical uncertainties, prompting investors to turn to gold as a hedge against market instability.
• Concerns about the financial stability of major economies, disruptions in the Japanese government bond market, and expectations for additional US interest rate cuts have all contributed to gold's safe-haven appeal, resulting in a "debasement trade" as investors sought safety in the precious metal.
• While gold prices dipped earlier in the week due to easing geopolitical tensions and reduced expectations of imminent Fed rate cuts, the overall trajectory remains bullish, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and robust demand for safe-haven assets.

10.11.2025 - XAU Commodity was up 0.5%

• Gold prices increased above $4,230 per ounce after remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Powell suggested the potential for additional easing measures, boosting trader confidence in the precious metal.
• The Fed's decision to decrease interest rates by 25 basis points helped decrease short real rates and weaken the dollar, historically supporting gold prices.
• Traders closely watched economic projections and Powell's statements for insights into the central bank's future plans, with expectations leaning towards possible further rate cuts in 2026, strengthening gold's attractiveness as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.
• Strong official demand for gold, exemplified by China's consistent rise in reserves for the 13th consecutive month, alongside substantial ETF inflows and physical buying, collectively drove gold prices up by around 60% year-to-date.

22.09.2025 - XAU Commodity was down 5.2%

• Gold prices saw a sharp decline below $4,100 per ounce, marking a substantial pullback from recent record highs.
• The bearish trend was driven by profit-taking as traders locked in gains from previous rallies and a shift towards riskier assets due to optimism surrounding potential easing of US-China trade tensions.
• Expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties continue to provide some support to gold prices, despite the recent downturn.
• Investors are closely monitoring economic indicators like the CPI report for insights into future monetary policy decisions, which could further impact the direction of gold prices.