Gold ($XAU) Commodity Forecast: Up 1.3% Today

What is Gold?

Gold is a precious metal often considered a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty. It is widely traded in the commodities market and its price is influenced by various factors including geopolitical tensions, inflation, and interest rates.

Why is Gold going up?

XAU commodity is up 1.3% on Aug 1, 2025 13:26

• Gold experienced a strong bullish movement today, reaching above $3,290 per ounce.
• The bullish trend can be attributed to the ongoing trade tensions between the US and multiple countries, leading to a weaker global economic outlook and increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• President Trump's introduction of higher tariffs on various nations, coupled with a stronger US dollar, contributed to the positive sentiment towards gold as investors sought to hedge against market volatility.
• Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the potential impact of tariffs on inflation further boosted the appeal of gold as a store of value in turbulent times.

XAU Price Chart

XAU Technical Analysis

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Gold Flat as Fresh Tariffs Lift Dollar

Gold prices were muted around $3,290 per ounce on Friday and were on track for its worst weekly performance since late June, pressured by a stronger US dollar following President Trump’s introduction of higher tariffs on multiple countries. Trump reaffirmed a 10% global base tariff and imposed retaliatory duties of up to 41% on nations without trade agreements with the US. He also announced a 40% levy on goods suspected of being rerouted through third countries to bypass existing tariffs. Meanwhile, US data showed that both core and headline PCE prices exceeded expectations in June, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation in key sectors of the economy, and further complicating the outlook for a potential rate cut in September. Investors now turn their attention to the July jobs report, expected to offer fresh insight into labor market conditions and help shape the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

Gold Holds Pullback from July Peak

Gold hovered close to the $3,300 per ounce mark on Thursday, holding most of the losses since testing record highs above $3,400 earlier in July amid the outlook of a hawkish Fed and softer demand for safety. Both core and headline PCE prices were above expectations in June to sustain concerns of stubborn inflation in key sectors of the US economy, while lower-than-expected unemployment claims consolidated the view of a healthy labor market. Consequently, rate futures swung to reflect bets that the Fed will hold rates unchanged in September. The data followed a higher-than-expected US GDP in the second quarter, although volatile foreign trade continued to distort the data as firms reacted to a series of tariff threats by US President Trump. New levels of tariffs on US imports were set to start on Friday, with most trading partners securing levy rates below those threatened by the White House, easing demand for safety in gold.

Gold Rebounds from 4-Week Low

Gold rose above $3,290 per ounce on Thursday, rebounding from a more than 1% drop to a four-week low in the previous session, as markets assessed recent trade moves and the Fed’s policy outlook. President Trump announced tariff measures, including removing exemptions for low-value imports and revising duties on copper and Brazilian goods. He also confirmed a 15% tariff on South Korean imports and a 25% tariff on Indian goods, while noting ongoing talks with India. Meanwhile, the Fed held interest rates steady, as expected. Chair Powell reiterated it’s too early to consider cuts and offered little guidance on timing. Markets responded by pricing in 35 bps of cuts by year-end. Investors also digested stronger-than-expected US data, with GDP growth and private employment both beating forecasts. Focus now shifts to upcoming PCE inflation and jobless claims on Thursday, followed by July’s jobs report on Friday.

Gold Hits 4-week Low

Gold decreased to 3282.00 USD/t.oz, the lowest since June 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Gold lost 1.62%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 34.28%.

Gold Extends Losses as Fed Holds Rates, Dollar Strengthens

Gold dipped below $3,300 per ounce on Wednesday, hovering near a one-month low, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5%, defying President Trump’s calls for cuts. The decision, which came with two dissenting votes in favor of easing, was accompanied by a more cautious tone, citing elevated uncertainty and moderating economic growth. The stronger US dollar added further pressure on bullion, as investors pushed back expectations for rate cuts this year. Gold, which typically benefits from lower interest rates and heightened uncertainty, also faced headwinds from solid US GDP data showing stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter, despite slowing investment and consumption. Meanwhile, the Fed flagged White House tariffs as likely to be inflationary, with new levies set to take effect Friday. On the trade front, the US raised tariffs on Brazil and India and hinted at adjustments to existing deals with the EU and China.

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Gold Price History

21.05.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 0.8%

• Gold prices fell today despite recent upward momentum, as investors awaited further cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.
• The anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Fed was reinforced by soft US economic data, including weak retail sales and a slowdown in the labor market.
• Higher US Treasury yields and tepid gold demand in key markets like India and China also contributed to the downward pressure on Gold prices.
• The market movement suggests that investors are closely monitoring economic indicators and Fed officials' statements to assess the timing and extent of potential rate cuts, impacting the demand for safe-haven assets like Gold.

03.03.2025 - XAU Commodity was down 0.3%

• Gold prices dropped significantly by more than 3% from a record high above $3,160 per ounce due to the decision to exempt precious metals from tariffs, leading to a bearish market sentiment.
• Despite the decline, concerns about the tariffs' impact on global inflation and growth, coupled with expectations of rate cuts and strong demand for gold-backed ETFs, helped mitigate the losses, showcasing the metal's resilience in volatile times.
• The market movement was also influenced by tariff announcements, outlining baseline tariffs and higher rates for countries like China, the EU, and Japan, as investors awaited the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for further insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction.
• Overall, the bearish movement in gold today can be attributed to a combination of factors, including trade tensions, economic uncertainties, and market reactions to geopolitical events, highlighting the metal's sensitivity to global developments.

01.07.2025 - XAU Commodity was up 1.3%

• Gold experienced a strong bullish movement today, reaching above $3,290 per ounce.
• The bullish trend can be attributed to the ongoing trade tensions between the US and multiple countries, leading to a weaker global economic outlook and increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• President Trump's introduction of higher tariffs on various nations, coupled with a stronger US dollar, contributed to the positive sentiment towards gold as investors sought to hedge against market volatility.
• Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the potential impact of tariffs on inflation further boosted the appeal of gold as a store of value in turbulent times.

23.03.2025 - XAU Commodity was down 5.2%

• Gold prices retreated from record highs as optimism surrounding US-China trade tensions and reduced concerns about Federal Reserve independence weakened the metal's safe-haven appeal.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments on a potential de-escalation in the trade conflict with China and President Trump's backing away from threats to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell contributed to the decline in gold prices.
• The improved overall sentiment and the slight pullback in assets benefiting from safety demand led to a decrease in gold prices, despite the metal still being up roughly 30% year-to-date.
• President Trump's remarks on Fed Chair Powell, ongoing global trade tensions, and fears of political interference in monetary policy have added to the uncertainty, driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold.

18.08.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 0.3%

• Gold's bearish movement today can be attributed to profit-taking by investors after the recent surge in prices to record highs.
• The Federal Reserve's unexpected jumbo rate cut and updated economic forecasts may have led to a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets, impacting the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• The ongoing market uncertainty, including political events and central bank decisions, could have also contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices as investors reassess their portfolios.
• Despite today's bearish movement, the long-term bullish trend in gold, driven by factors such as a weaker dollar and lower bond yields, remains intact, indicating potential buying opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on future price increases.

06.10.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 1.2%

• Gold prices fell due to concerns over the US election outcome and the potential impact of a Trump presidency on inflation, leading investors to turn away from the precious metal.
• Anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut to bolster the economy was not enough to offset the negative pressure on gold.
• Investor wariness towards safe-haven assets like gold was evident, given positive economic indicators and the resilience of the US economy, which diminished the immediate necessity for hedging against inflation risks.
• Today's dip in gold prices stemmed from a mix of factors, including election uncertainty, monetary policy projections, and changing perceptions of economic stability.

25.01.2025 - XAU Commodity was down 1.7%

• Gold prices fell below $2,950 per ounce despite holding near record highs, as concerns over President Trump's tariff policies continued to weigh on the market sentiment.
• The escalating trade tensions, coupled with fears of inflationary risks due to tariff announcements on various imports, led investors to reevaluate their positions in gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
• Despite the bullish trend in recent weeks, the bearish movement today may indicate a temporary pullback as investors await further clarity on the Fed's monetary policy stance and the impact of geopolitical events on the global economy.
• The upcoming PCE report and market reactions to Trump's tariff measures will likely play a crucial role in shaping gold's future price movements, as investors navigate through volatile market conditions seeking safe-haven assets.

16.06.2025 - XAU Commodity was up 1.0%

• Gold prices edged higher to around $3,330 per ounce as investors assessed a pick-up in US inflation and ongoing trade developments, including tariff announcements on various countries.
• The uncertainty surrounding US economic policy and trade tensions continued to support gold prices, with central banks increasing their gold reserves amid the volatility in global markets.
• Tariff measures, such as the 30% duty on imports from the EU and Mexico, along with calls for rate cuts, added to the market volatility and boosted demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• The World Gold Council reported net central bank gold purchases, further highlighting the ongoing interest in gold as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

29.01.2024 - XAU Commodity was up 0.5%

• Gold prices rose as investors anticipated the release of the US PCE inflation report, which could impact Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and consequently elevate gold's attractiveness as an inflation hedge.
• Factors such as lower yields and expectations of monetary stimulus also contributed to the positive trend in gold prices, especially amidst uncertainties regarding the timing and scale of rate adjustments by the Fed.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated safe-haven demand for gold as Houthi militants took credit for attacks on commercial ships, bolstering the metal's upward movement.
• Despite some periods of subdued trading, overall market sentiment regarding gold remained optimistic, steered by a mix of economic reports, central bank communications, and global uncertainties that collectively influenced today's bullish market performance.

01.02.2024 - XAU Commodity was up 0.8%

• Gold surged to a 4-week high of $2051.00 USD/t.oz, benefiting from the latest US inflation data that reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
• The solidification of investors' beliefs in the Fed's accommodative stance, particularly after the PCE data release, bolstered Gold's appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainties.
• With markets pricing in a high probability of a Fed rate cut in June and no hikes expected in the near term, the outlook for Gold remains positive as investors seek refuge in the precious metal.
• Lower yields and the prospect of monetary easing further supported Gold's upward trajectory, making it an attractive asset in the current economic landscape.

20.02.2024 - XAU Commodity was up 1.1%

• Gold prices surged as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, with expectations of interest rates remaining unchanged leading to increased confidence in the precious metal.
• Strong US inflation data and the anticipation of monetary easing in the future contributed to the bullish movement in gold prices.
• The Bank of Japan's decision to end its negative rate policy and the Reserve Bank of Australia's steady rates also played a role in boosting gold prices as investors sought safe haven assets amidst global economic uncertainties.
• Overall, the bullish movement in gold can be attributed to a combination of factors including central bank policies, economic data releases, and geopolitical tensions, all of which favored the appeal of the precious metal as a store of value.

02.07.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 1.1%

• Gold prices dropped significantly today, despite recent record highs, as investors may have taken profits following the surge in prices.
• The bearish movement could also be attributed to the easing of tensions in the Middle East, reducing the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• The anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut may have influenced the market sentiment, leading to profit-taking in gold after the recent bullish rally.
• Overall, the combination of profit-taking, reduced geopolitical tensions, and market expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy decisions likely contributed to the bearish movement in the gold market today.