Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Down 8.0% Today

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas is a widely traded commodity used for heating and electricity generation. Its prices are influenced by factors such as weather forecasts, production levels, and global demand.

Why is Natural Gas going down?

GAS commodity is down 8.0% on Nov 27, 2024 18:43

• Natural Gas prices dropped over 7% to $3.2/MMBtu.
• Concerns over the outlook of gas supply in the US were a key factor in the market movement, with the latest data showing a smaller-than-expected withdrawal from storage and the anticipation of milder weather in December.
• Ample output forecasted for next year, propelled by higher export capacity and global demand for US LNG, contributed to the decline in prices.
• Despite strong export demand from Europe and Asia for winter heating, the increase in US production and the expectations of a mild December led to the significant drop in Natural Gas prices.

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Natural Gas Sinks More than 7%

US natural gas futures extended their drop and sank more than 7% $3.2/MMBtu on Wednesday as markets assessed the outlook of gas supply in the US. The latest report from the EIA indicated that utilities pulled 3 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage on the week ending November 22nd, loosely in line with market expectations ranging between a small build and a small draw. While the result consolidated the view that the withdrawing season is underway, it was well below the 5-year average of a 30 billion cubic foot drop for the week. In turn, prices were also pressured by the view that the upcoming colder front in the US may turn mild later in December. Still, export demand has remained strong in November, driven by Europe and Asia preparing for winter heating. To meet this demand, US production has increased, up by 1.5 Bcf/day from the 30-day average on Tuesday.

US Natgas Prices Fall Ahead EIA Data

US natural gas futures dropped more than 5% to below $3.30/MMBtu on Wednesday, as traders awaited the latest inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Analysts anticipate a small storage build or a modest draw for the week ending Nov. 22, with larger withdrawals expected in the coming weeks as colder weather sets in. Export demand has remained strong in November, driven by Europe and Asia preparing for winter heating. To meet this demand, US production has increased, up by 1.5 Bcf/day from the 30-day average on Tuesday. Looking ahead, AccuWeather forecasts colder air and storms spreading east and south this week, which is likely to boost gas consumption heading into December.

Natural gas is down by 5%

Natural gas decreased 5% to 3.2935 USD/MMBtu

Natural Gas Rises to 1-Year High

US natural gas prices extended their rise to $3.48/MMBtu, the highest in over one year, as forecasts of colder weather and lower production drove utilities to expedite the start of storage withdrawing season. Data from the EIA showed that gas storage fell by 3 billion cubic feet on the week ending November 15th instead of expectations of a 5 billion cubic feet build, an expedited first drop of the season, as relatively low prices in the prior week drove producers to cut output. In turn, the most recent forecasts pointed to colder-than-usual temperatures on the West Coast and most of the nation besides the Gulf Coast. Additionally, supply concerns in Europe ahead of the turn of the year drove LNG feed gas flows to rise to a 10-month high. This is set to continue as uncertainty over the future of Russian gas supply increases the continent’s demand for LNG, lifting prices for natural gas in the US.

Natural Gas Eases from 1-Year HIgh

US natural gas prices fell to $3.2/MMBtu after touching a one-year high of $3.35 on November 21st amid an ample output next year. The EIA noted that US drillers are expected to raise output for the first time since the pandemic next year amid higher export capacity and global demand for US LNG. Still, prices remained nearly 20% higher in November as forecasts of colder weather expedited expectations on the start of storage withdrawing season. Data from the EIA showed that gas storage fell by 3 billion cubic feet on the week ending November 15th instead of expectations of a 5 billion cubic feet build, as relatively low prices in the prior week drove producers to cut output. In turn, the most recent forecasts pointed to colder-than-usual temperatures on the West Coast and most of the nation besides the Gulf Coast. In turn, supply concerns in Europe ahead of the turn of the year drove LNG feed gas flows to rise to a 10-month high, limiting domestic supply.

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Natural Gas Price History

21.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 8.0%

• Natural Gas prices surged by over 5% to reach a 12-month high, driven by forecasts of colder weather increasing heating demand and expectations of the storage withdrawing season.
• The unexpected drop in gas storage, coupled with producers cutting output due to low prices, contributed to the bullish momentum.
• Rising LNG feed gas flows due to supply concerns in Europe and robust demand from Mexico further limited domestic supply, supporting the price increase.
• Overall, the combination of weather forecasts, supply constraints, and production adjustments led to Natural Gas hitting a significant high, reflecting the market's response to changing dynamics in the energy sector.

21.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 9.1%

• Natural gas prices surged to a 1-year high of $3.4/MMBtu due to forecasts of colder weather boosting heating demand and expectations of the storage withdrawing season starting soon.
• The rise in US natural gas futures to a 5-month high of $3.2/MMBtu was driven by colder weather predictions at the end of November, increased feedgas supply to LNG export terminals, and reduced production levels.
• With natural gas hitting a 12-month high and a 23-week high, the consistent upward trend over the past weeks and months can be attributed to a combination of weather forecasts, supply-demand dynamics, and global factors impacting the commodity market.

22.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 6.3%

• Natural Gas prices fell from a recent one-year high due to expectations of ample output next year and higher export capacity.
• Forecasts of colder weather expedited expectations on the start of storage withdrawing season, leading to a decrease in prices.
• Supply concerns in Europe and an increase in LNG feed gas flows limited domestic supply, contributing to the bearish movement.
• Despite the recent drop, prices remained nearly 20% higher in November, indicating ongoing volatility in the market.

20.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 6.0%

• Natural gas prices surged to a 12-month high of 3.16 USD/MMBtu, marking a significant increase in the past month.
• The bullish trend can be attributed to expectations of higher demand due to colder weather forecasts at the end of November, which are set to boost heating demand.
• Additionally, the decrease in production levels and the rise in gas exports to US LNG plants have also contributed to the upward momentum in natural gas prices.
• Overall, the combination of increased demand expectations and a slight decline in production levels has propelled natural gas to reach new highs in the market.

20.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 7.3%

• Natural Gas prices surged to a 5-month high of $3.2/MMBtu, driven by colder weather forecasts boosting heating demand.
• The increase in supply of feedgas to U.S. LNG export terminals and robust demand from Mexico contributed to the bullish momentum.
• Production levels slightly decreased, indicating a potential tightening of supply, while export volumes to LNG plants rose, further supporting the price rally.
• Overall, the combination of weather forecasts, supply-demand dynamics, and production trends painted a bullish picture for Natural Gas prices, pushing them to multi-month highs.

20.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.4%

• Prices of natural gas surged to a 23-week high due to expectations of higher demand driven by colder weather forecasts at the end of November, which will boost heating demand.
• The increase in gas exports to US LNG plants and the slight decrease in production have also contributed to the bullish movement.
• The anticipation of a decline in gas production in 2024, the first drop since the pandemic, as many producers reduced drilling activities due to lower prices, has further supported the upward trend.
• Despite the recent EIA data showing a storage build slightly below expectations, the overall market sentiment remains positive, with forecasts indicating warmer-than-usual conditions in the short term and a potential increase in heating demand towards the end of November.

14.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.2%

• Natural gas futures fell due to higher-than-expected storage builds, currently 6% above the seasonal norm, leading to concerns about oversupply.
• Warmer-than-usual weather forecasts through late November are dampening heating demand, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
• Production disruptions from Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico have also impacted output levels, adding to the bearish sentiment in the market.
• The combination of increased storage levels, reduced heating demand, and production challenges has created a perfect storm for the bearish movement in Natural Gas prices today.

14.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Natural gas futures fell below $2.9/MMBtu due to higher-than-expected storage builds, with storage levels currently 6% above the seasonal norm.
• Warmer-than-usual weather forecasts through late November are keeping heating demand low, allowing utilities to inject more gas into storage, further pressuring prices.
• Production disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico due to recent events have also contributed to the decline in output, exacerbating the bearish sentiment in the market.
• Despite expectations of increased heating demand later in November, the current market conditions and production challenges are outweighing any potential bullish factors, leading to the bearish movement in natural gas prices.

27.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 8.0%

• Natural Gas prices dropped over 7% to $3.2/MMBtu.
• Concerns over the outlook of gas supply in the US were a key factor in the market movement, with the latest data showing a smaller-than-expected withdrawal from storage and the anticipation of milder weather in December.
• Ample output forecasted for next year, propelled by higher export capacity and global demand for US LNG, contributed to the decline in prices.
• Despite strong export demand from Europe and Asia for winter heating, the increase in US production and the expectations of a mild December led to the significant drop in Natural Gas prices.

27.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 6.5%

• Today's bearish movement in Natural Gas prices can be attributed to the following factors:
• Traders awaiting the latest inventory data, anticipating a small storage build or modest draw, leading to uncertainty in the market.
• US production increasing to meet strong export demand from Europe and Asia, indicating a potential oversupply situation.
• Forecasts of colder air and storms spreading across the US, boosting gas consumption, but also potentially increasing production levels.
• Prices easing from a recent one-year high due to expectations of ample output next year, driven by higher export capacity and global demand for US LNG.

27.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.6%

• Natural gas prices reached a one-year high due to forecasts of colder weather and lower production, driving utilities to start storage withdrawing season early.
• Despite the ample output expected next year and higher export capacity, prices eased from the high as US drillers are projected to increase output.
• The surge in natural gas prices was fueled by colder weather forecasts, lifting heating demand and accelerating the start of storage withdrawing season.
• The market movement could be attributed to the delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics, influenced by weather forecasts and global supply concerns, particularly in Europe.

27.10.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 8.0%

• Natural Gas prices experienced a bearish movement today, dropping significantly.
• The market was influenced by the latest data showing a smaller-than-expected withdrawal from storage, signaling a weaker demand outlook.
• Additionally, concerns over milder weather in the US later in December and expectations of ample output next year contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
• Despite strong export demand driven by Europe and Asia preparing for winter heating, the increased US production and forecasts of warmer weather dampened the bullish sentiment in the market.