Prev Arrow Commodities

Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Down 6.5% Today

Morpher AI identified a bearish signal. The commodity price may continue to fall based on the momentum of the negative news.

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas is a widely used commodity for heating and electricity generation. Today, the market experienced a strong bearish movement due to various factors affecting supply and demand.

Why is Natural Gas going down?

GAS commodity is down 6.5% on Jul 17, 2024 17:12

  • Natural gas futures fell to a 10-week low below $2.1/MMBtu due to forecasts of milder weather, a drop in feedgas to LNG export plants, and persistent oversupply. This bearish movement was further exacerbated by storage levels being 18% above normal.
  • Despite the rebound towards $2.2/MMBtu, driven by record-high power demand from extreme heat, the overall trend remained bearish as gas production increased, gas flows to LNG export plants decreased, and storage levels remained high.
  • The market hovering at a 2-month low below $2.3/MMBtu was influenced by increased production, reduced gas flow to LNG export plants, and excess gas in storage. The report showing utilities adding to storage further added to the bearish sentiment.
  • Natural gas hitting a 9-week low of 2.25 USD/MMBtu reflects the ongoing downward trend, with a loss of 18.98% over the past 4 weeks and 9.8% in the last 12 months. The market continues to face challenges from oversupply and reduced demand from LNG export facilities.

GAS Price Chart

GAS News

US Natgas Prices Fall to Over 10-Week Low

US natural gas futures fell over 5% to below $2.1/MMBtu, the lowest in more than ten weeks, due to forecasts of milder weather and a drop in feedgas to LNG export plants following the shutdown of Freeport LNG in Texas for Hurricane Beryl. Persistent oversupply, with storage levels about 18% above normal, also pressured prices. Meteorologists predict near-normal weather across the Lower 48 states through July 24, then hotter-than-normal weather through August 1. Despite this, LSEG forecasts average gas demand will drop from 105.5 bcfd this week to 103.5 bcfd next week. Gas flows to US LNG export plants fell to 11.6 bcfd so far in July, down from 12.8 bcfd in June, mainly due to Freeport LNG's shutdown and recent reductions at Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi facility.

US Natgas Prices Rebound from 10-Week High

US natural gas futures rose toward $2.2/MMBtu, recovering from a 10-week low as power demand hit a record high due to extreme heat. Hot weather is expected to persist, keeping power generators reliant on gas. On July 9, a record 54.1 bcfd of gas was used for power generation. This price increase occurred despite forecasts of reduced demand because of a slower return to full power at Freeport LNG's Texas export plant. Gas flows to LNG export plants have decreased to 11.8 bcfd so far in July from 12.8 bcfd in June due to the shutdown of Freeport LNG. Gas prices have been low for four of the past five weeks due to high output and oversupply, with storage levels 18% above normal. Gas production in the Lower 48 states averaged 102.2 bcfd so far in July, up from 100.2 bcfd in June.

Natural gas is down by 5%

Natural gas decreased 5% to 2.2126 USD/MMBtu

US Natgas Prices Hover at 2-Month Low

US natural gas futures traded below $2.3/MMBtu, the lowest in two months due to increased production, reduced gas flow to LNG export plants and excess gas in storage. Gas production in the Lower 48 states rose to 102.4 bcfd so far in July from a 17-month low of 99.5 bcfd in May. Also, gas flow to major US LNG export facilities decreased to 12.2 bcfd from 12.8 bcfd in June, mainly due to the Freeport shutdown caused by Hurricane Beryl. Meanwhile, the EIA report showed utilities added 65 billion cubic feet of gas to storage in the week ended July 5, putting stockpiles 18.7% above seasonal levels. Looking ahead, above-average temperatures are expected across the Lower 48 states until at least July 25.

Natural gas Hits 9-week Low

Natural gas decreased to a 9-week low of 2.25 USD/MMBtu. Over the past 4 weeks, Natural gas lost 18.98%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 9.8%.

Natural Gas Price History

17.06.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 6.5%

  • Natural gas futures fell to a 10-week low below $2.1/MMBtu due to forecasts of milder weather, a drop in feedgas to LNG export plants, and persistent oversupply. This bearish movement was further exacerbated by storage levels being 18% above normal.
  • Despite the rebound towards $2.2/MMBtu, driven by record-high power demand from extreme heat, the overall trend remained bearish as gas production increased, gas flows to LNG export plants decreased, and storage levels remained high.
  • The market hovering at a 2-month low below $2.3/MMBtu was influenced by increased production, reduced gas flow to LNG export plants, and excess gas in storage. The report showing utilities adding to storage further added to the bearish sentiment.
  • Natural gas hitting a 9-week low of 2.25 USD/MMBtu reflects the ongoing downward trend, with a loss of 18.98% over the past 4 weeks and 9.8% in the last 12 months. The market continues to face challenges from oversupply and reduced demand from LNG export facilities.

17.06.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.5%

  • Natural gas prices experienced a significant bearish movement due to increased production levels, reduced flow to LNG export plants, and excess gas in storage.
  • The shutdown of a LNG export plant and the impact of a weather event on gas flow contributed to the decline in prices.
  • Despite high power demand due to extreme heat, the oversupply of natural gas and above-average storage levels have put downward pressure on prices.
  • The consecutive weekly drops in natural gas prices indicate a challenging market environment with an abundance of supply outweighing demand factors.

15.06.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

  • Factors including increased production, reduced gas flow to LNG export plants, and excess gas in storage led to Natural Gas prices hitting a 9-week low, marking a 5th consecutive weekly drop.
  • The EIA reported a larger-than-expected storage build, with utilities adding 65 billion cubic feet of gas to storage last week, further pressuring prices downwards.
  • The Freeport LNG shutdown due to Hurricane Beryl compounded the situation, causing a decrease in gas flow to major US LNG export facilities.
  • Above-average temperatures forecasted for the Lower 48 states until at least July 25 are expected to perpetuate the oversupply of Natural Gas in storage and maintaining ongoing production levels, likely continuing to impact prices negatively in the short term.

02.06.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

  • Natural gas prices fell to a multi-week low due to increased production levels by key companies, leading to a surplus in storage and lower demand forecasts.
  • Despite a heatwave impacting the US, gas prices declined as analysts highlighted high inventories and rising production. Gas output in the Lower 48 states averaged 98.8 bcfd in June.
  • Gas storage levels increased slightly according to the latest report, now 20.6% above the seasonal average, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
  • The bearish movement in natural gas prices can be attributed to increased production, lower demand forecasts, and surplus gas in storage, despite the ongoing heatwave in the US.

26.05.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

  • Natural Gas prices experienced a bearish movement today due to rising output and lower demand forecasts.
  • The increase in gas production in the US, despite a heatwave, coupled with reduced demand expectations for the upcoming weeks, led to the decline in prices.
  • The ongoing maintenance at major LNG export facilities in Louisiana also contributed to the market movement, limiting the capacity for gas flows.
  • The market sentiment was further impacted by the delay in well completions and reduced drilling activities by energy firms following previous lows in gas prices earlier in the year.

24.05.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.3%

  • Natural gas futures rose by about 4% to $2.8/MMBtu due to forecasts of hotter weather and increased cooling demand, leading to a bullish movement in the market.
  • The price hike was supported by predictions of above-normal temperatures across the Lower 48 states, driving up the use of gas-powered generators for air conditioning purposes.
  • Despite increased output by producers to meet the rising demand, ongoing maintenance at major LNG export facilities in Louisiana limited gas flows, contributing to the bullish momentum in prices.
  • The market movement was also influenced by the anticipation of record early summer heat in the Northeast and increased demand from the power sector, indicating a potential demand spike and supporting the upward trajectory of natural gas prices.

20.05.2024 - GAS Commodity was down 5.3%

  • Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement today due to increased production levels in the US, leading to a surplus in supply.
  • Despite the recent bearish trend, a temporary uptick in prices was observed as extreme heat across the country drove up demand from the power sector, hinting at the volatility of the market influenced by weather patterns.
  • The ongoing maintenance at major LNG export terminals in Louisiana also played a role in limiting gas flows, impacting the overall market sentiment.
  • The market seems to be reacting sensitively to both supply-side factors like increased production and demand-side factors such as weather forecasts, showcasing the intricate balance that dictates natural gas prices.

18.05.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.0%

  • The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices today can be attributed to the extreme heat spreading across the US, leading to increased demand from the power sector and anticipation of record early summer heat in the Northeast.
  • The upcoming hot period from June 19 to July 2, as per weather models, is supporting the prices, while a slight cooling in Texas due to tropical rains may have also impacted the market sentiment.
  • The recent federal report showing a weekly storage build and US gas stockpiles being above their 5-year average might have initially caused some bearish pressure, but the revised forecast by the US Energy Information Administration, predicting a decline in production and higher prices in 2024, could have reassured investors and contributed to the bullish movement.

11.05.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.6%

  • Natural gas futures surpassed $3/MMBtu for the first time since November, driven by updated weather forecasts predicting increased electricity demand for air conditioning amid hotter temperatures.
  • The surge in prices is also attributed to producers cutting drilling budgets and reducing output earlier in the year, leading to a decrease in the surplus from the warmer-than-usual winter and alleviating concerns about storage capacity.
  • Expectations of increased cooling demand due to warm weather forecasts for June, particularly in the Midwest and East regions, fueled market optimism and contributed to the bullish movement in natural gas prices.
  • Despite a larger-than-expected storage build reported by the EIA, which showed US gas stockpiles 25.1% above the 5-year average, natural gas prices have risen over 7% this week due to a recent drop in output and forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather later in June.

07.05.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.2%

  • Natural gas prices surged over 12% this week to $2.9/MMBtu, driven by expectations of increased cooling demand due to warm weather forecasts for June.
  • Despite a bigger-than-expected storage build reported, prices pared gains to $2.8/MMBtu, as US utilities added more gas into storage, above market expectations.
  • The recent surge in natural gas prices was fueled by a drop in output, forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather, and increased gas flow to LNG export facilities.
  • Overall, the bullish movement in natural gas prices can be attributed to a combination of supply constraints, weather forecasts, and demand expectations, despite concerns about oversupply and high stockpile levels.

07.05.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.1%

  • Despite a larger-than-expected storage build, natural gas prices surged over 7% this week due to a recent drop in output and forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather later in June.
  • The return of a LNG plant in Texas and increased gas flow to LNG export facilities contributed to the price increase, despite concerns about oversupply and drillers extracting more gas.
  • With US gas production down about 9% in 2024, energy firms delaying well completions and reducing drilling earlier in the year have impacted the market positively.
  • Meteorologists predicting warmer-than-usual weather until at least June 7 have also supported the bullish movement in natural gas prices.

05.05.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.2%

  • Natural gas prices surged by 5% to $2.7153 USD/MMBtu today, showing a bullish movement.
  • The recent increase in prices can be attributed to a 30% surge in May, driven by heightened gas flow to LNG export facilities, particularly the reopening of the Freeport LNG plant in Texas.
  • Despite the recent gains, concerns about oversupply persist as drillers have ramped up gas extraction, leading to a rise in gas stockpiles above seasonal averages.
  • Meteorologists forecasting warmer-than-usual weather until early June could further impact natural gas prices in the coming days, as weather patterns often influence demand for heating and cooling.

04.05.2024 - GAS Commodity was up 5.3%

  • Natural gas prices surged recently due to increased gas flow to LNG export facilities. This increase was notably driven by the reopening of the Freeport LNG plant in Texas, pushing prices near $2.7/MMBtu.
  • Concerns about oversupply emerged as some drillers escalated extraction levels. This led to a subsequent drop in prices below $2.6/MMBtu.
  • The market saw a significant impact from data showing a notable increase in natural gas storage levels in the US, surpassing expectations and exceeding the stockpiles from the previous year.
  • Meteorological forecasts predicting warmer-than-usual weather contributed to a bearish sentiment, suggesting potential lower demand for natural gas in the upcoming period.
i
Disclaimer
Morpher is not liable for the content of the AI investment insights. Like most GPT-powered tools, these summaries may contain AI hallucinations and inaccurate information. Morpher is not presenting you with any investment advice. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, or financial product does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. These summaries do not constitute investment advice.