Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.3% Today

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas is a widely used commodity for heating and electricity generation, with its prices being influenced by various factors such as supply, demand, and weather conditions. Today, the market experienced a strong bearish movement, with prices dropping significantly.

Why is Natural Gas going down?

GAS commodity is down 5.3% on Jul 23, 2025 18:16

• Natural gas prices fell to a 3-month low due to near-record output and forecasts for milder weather, reducing cooling demand and increasing storage injections.
• The bearish movement was also influenced by strong production levels, surpassing previous records, leading to higher storage injections and increased stockpiles.
• Despite hotter-than-normal temperatures, the revised forecast showing less intense heat contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
• The increase in gas flows to US LNG export facilities and rising output levels further added to the bearish sentiment in the market, pushing prices lower towards a 2-week low.

GAS Price Chart

GAS Technical Analysis

GAS News

US Natgas Prices Fall to 3-Month Low

US natural gas futures fell more than 5% to below $3.1/MMBtu, the lowest since April 22, pressured by near-record output and forecasts for milder weather than previously expected. While temperatures remain hotter than normal through at least August 6, the revised forecast now shows less intense heat, reducing near-term cooling demand. Despite the summer heat, analysts expect record-high production will continue to support strong storage injections. Stockpiles are already about 6% above the seasonal norm. According to LSEG, average gas output in the Lower 48 has reached 107.2 billion cubic feet per day in July, surpassing June’s record of 106.4 bcfd. Meanwhile, gas flows to the eight major US LNG export facilities have climbed to 15.8 bcfd so far in July, up from June, as some units gradually return from maintenance and unplanned outages.

Natural gas Hits 9-week Low

Natural gas decreased to 3.15 USD/MMBtu, the lowest since May 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Natural gas lost 13.54%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 49.27%.

US Natgas Prices Fall Toward 2-Week Low

US natural gas futures fell around 3% to $3.23/MMBtu, the lowest in nearly two weeks, pressured by near-record output and forecasts for milder weather than previously expected. While temperatures remain hotter than normal through at least August 6, the revised forecast now shows less intense heat, reducing near-term cooling demand. Despite the summer heat, analysts expect record-high production will continue to support strong storage injections. Stockpiles are already about 6% above the seasonal norm. According to LSEG, average gas output in the Lower 48 has reached 107.2 billion cubic feet per day in July, surpassing June’s record of 106.4 bcfd. Meanwhile, gas flows to the eight major US LNG export facilities have climbed to 15.8 bcfd so far in July, up from June, as some units gradually return from maintenance and unplanned outages.

US Natgas Prices Start Week Lower

US natural gas futures dropped over 5% to below $3.40/MMBtu on Monday, reversing some of last week’s 7% gain, as strong supply and a softer demand outlook pressured prices. Production is at a new record, averaging 107.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) so far in July, surpassing June’s previous high of 106.4 bcf/day. This surge in output allowed energy firms to inject 46 bcf into storage for the week ending July 11, far above both the 18 bcf added during the same week last year and the five-year average of 41 bcf. As a result, total gas inventories are now 6.2% above the seasonal norm. On the export front, LNG shipments are picking up, with flows to terminals averaging 15.8 bcf/day in July so far, up from 14.3 bcf/day in June, as facilities gradually return from maintenance and unplanned outages.

US Natgas Prices Hover at 3-Week High

US natural gas futures hovered around $3.56/MMBtu, the highest in three weeks, driven by increased demand for cooling amid hotter-than-normal weather. Power generators are burning more gas to meet air conditioning needs. Also, forecasts show continued high temperatures across the Lower 48 states through early August, with next week likely to bring the summer’s peak heat. In addition, LNG exports are climbing, with flows to export terminals averaging 15.8 bcf/day so far in July, up from 14.3 bcf/day in June, as some plants recover from maintenance and outages. Output is also rising, hitting 107.0 bcf/day in July, surpassing the prior record of 106.4 bcf/day set in June. Meanwhile, a federal report showed that strong production allowed energy firms to inject 46 billion cubic feet (bcf) into storage for the week ending July 11, well above last year’s 18 bcf and the 5-year average of 41 bcf. Gas stockpiles now sit about 6.2% above the seasonal norm.

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Natural Gas Price History

23.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.2%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement today, dropping by 5% to $3.8807 USD/MMBtu.
• The decline in prices can be attributed to the market reacting to US natural gas futures trading around $3.9/MMBtu after a recent rise, as well as concerns over potential LNG supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.
• Despite the drop, natural gas prices had been on track for a 10% weekly gain, driven by forecasts of a major heatwave across the US increasing demand for air conditioning and power generation.
• The request for a 40-month extension by Freeport LNG to complete its Train 4 expansion may have also contributed to market uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment and leading to the bearish movement in prices.

23.06.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Natural gas futures experienced a bearish movement today due to:
• Forecasts for milder weather reducing near-term cooling demand.
• Near-record output levels and strong storage injections contributing to oversupply concerns.
• Lower demand outlook as production hit new records, allowing for significant injections into storage.
• Despite hot weather and high demand for cooling, the market was pressured by the abundance of supply and export trends.

23.06.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.3%

• Natural gas prices fell to a 3-month low due to near-record output and forecasts for milder weather, reducing cooling demand and increasing storage injections.
• The bearish movement was also influenced by strong production levels, surpassing previous records, leading to higher storage injections and increased stockpiles.
• Despite hotter-than-normal temperatures, the revised forecast showing less intense heat contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
• The increase in gas flows to US LNG export facilities and rising output levels further added to the bearish sentiment in the market, pushing prices lower towards a 2-week low.

09.06.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 6.0%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement, dropping to a 6-week low.
• The decrease in prices can be attributed to rising supply levels, strong storage levels, and above-average weekly builds.
• Despite strong demand driven by hotter-than-normal weather and increased LNG exports, the surplus in storage and higher output contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
• Geopolitical tensions, uncertainties around tropical storm activity, and concerns about winter supply also added volatility to the market, influencing the bearish movement of natural gas prices.

30.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.3%

• Natural gas futures experienced a bearish movement today, dropping to a 5-week low.
• The market movement can be attributed to rising production levels, larger-than-expected storage builds, and a decline in gas flows to US LNG export terminals.
• Despite forecasts for continued hot weather, the easing of extreme temperatures and increased supply have put downward pressure on prices.
• The recent trend of above-average storage injections and the overall bearish sentiment in the market have contributed to the decline in natural gas prices.

26.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 6.0%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement due to:
• Rising production levels and forecasts for an easing heat wave, leading to decreased demand.
• Decrease in gas flows to US LNG export plants due to seasonal maintenance.
• Market concerns easing with a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran, reducing tensions in the energy-rich Middle East.
• Geopolitical tensions and extreme weather conditions, such as the anticipation of Iran's response to Washington's strike on its nuclear sites, also contributed to the market volatility.
• The overall market sentiment was impacted by the combination of increased production levels, reduced demand due to weather forecasts, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a significant drop in natural gas prices.

26.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 8.2%

• Natural gas prices fell to a 5-week low of $3.42/MMBtu due to rising production and a larger-than-expected storage build, leading to ample supply in the market.
• Despite forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather, temperatures are expected to ease, reducing demand for natural gas for cooling purposes.
• Gas flows to US LNG export terminals have declined, contributing to the overall bearish sentiment in the market.
• Geopolitical tensions and extreme weather conditions are also impacting natural gas prices, with traders monitoring Iran's response to Washington's actions and the potential for supply disruptions.

20.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.2%

• Natural gas futures dropped due to concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading to fears of potential disruptions in energy supplies.
• Despite warmer-than-normal weather driving up cooling demand in the short term, the overall decrease in gas output in the Lower 48 states contributed to the bearish movement.
• The market sentiment was influenced by geopolitical events and concerns about tightening supply from rapid growth in LNG exports, overshadowing the temporary increase in demand from weather conditions.

20.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

• Natural gas dropped by 5% to $3.8807 USD/MMBtu today.
• The market movement was influenced by an increase in supply due to maintenance at key LNG plants and slightly higher output in the Lower 48 states.
• Despite the drop, the commodity had a strong weekly gain of about 10% driven by forecasts of a major heatwave across the US, resulting in record-breaking demand for air conditioning needs.
• Geopolitical tensions, such as Israel striking key military and nuclear-related sites in Iran, also contributed to concerns over LNG supply disruptions, impacting market sentiment and contributing to the bearish movement.

03.06.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.1%

• Hotter mid-July forecasts boosted Natural Gas prices due to expected higher air-conditioning demand.
• A smaller-than-expected inventory build and concerns over winter supply, particularly for January contracts, contributed to the bullish sentiment.
• Geopolitical factors like US sanctions on Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project and uncertainties around tropical storm activity added to market volatility and upward pressure on prices.
• Decreased gas output, warmer weather leading to higher demand projections, and reduced LNG exports tightened supply, supporting overall market sentiment.

27.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 7.4%

• Natural gas prices surged by about 5% to $3.7/MMBtu, breaking a five-day losing streak, as LNG export activity picked up and forecasts predicted hotter-than-normal weather across the US.
• The increase in gas flows to LNG plants and expectations of reduced injections into storage due to higher power generation demand during the recent heat wave contributed to the bullish movement in natural gas prices.
• Despite the recent price increase, the market remains cautious as rising production levels and forecasts of easing heat wave conditions could put pressure on prices in the near future.
• Overall, the bullish movement in natural gas prices today was primarily driven by a combination of improved export activity, weather forecasts, and changes in storage injections, indicating a delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics in the market.

22.06.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

• Natural gas futures dropped over 5% due to strong supply and a softer demand outlook, with production at a new record level and high gas inventories.
• Despite hovering at a 3-week high previously, prices fell as cooling demand eased and supply remained robust.
• The extreme heat across the US had initially boosted demand, but as forecasts showed a slight easing in demand, prices saw a 1% increase, reaching a two-week high.
• Overall, the bearish movement can be attributed to a combination of factors including supply outpacing demand, easing cooling needs, and fluctuations in LNG exports and production levels.