Upstart Holdings Inc. ($UPST) Stock Forecast: Down 7.6% Today

What is Upstart Holdings Inc.?

Upstart Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) operates as a lending platform leveraging artificial intelligence to streamline the loan application process across various financial products. The company witnessed a decline in its stock performance today.

Why is Upstart Holdings Inc. going down?

UPST stock is down 7.6% on Feb 12, 2026 17:27

• Upstart Holdings achieved remarkable revenue growth and outperformed revenue expectations in Q4 2025. However, the stock faced a notable decrease as it fell short of earnings per share (EPS) estimates, raising concerns among investors regarding its profitability.
• Changes in the executive leadership team and a less robust margin outlook for 2026 added to the prevailing negative market sentiment, resulting in challenges with stock prices and analysts revising downward their price targets.
• The heightened options trading activity, particularly increased put purchases, indicates a readiness for potential market volatility and negative investor sentiment, notwithstanding the positive revenue outlook for the year.
• With the stock trading below its 100-day moving average and demonstrating weaker performance compared to the S&P 500 so far this year, Upstart's shares faced additional downward pressure, mirroring broader market issues impacting the company's financial performance.

UPST Price Chart

UPST Technical Analysis

UPST News

Upstart Sees Unusually High Options Volume (NASDAQ:UPST)

Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) experienced unusually high options volume, with investors purchasing 56,434 call options, about 36% above average, alongside a significant increase in put buying, indicating anticipated volatility. The company's Q4 revenue beat estimates, and full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised, but adjusted EPS missed consensus. Despite a leadership change and analyst buy ratings, the stock plunged after the earnings report due to the EPS miss and increased bearish options activity.

https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/upstart-sees-unusually-high-options-volume-nasdaqupst-2026-02-11/

Upstart Stock Gaps Lower Despite Top-Line Beat

Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST) shares fell 15.6% despite exceeding fourth-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, likely due to a C-suite shakeup and a weaker-than-expected 2026 margin outlook. Analysts issued price-target cuts, with Truist lowering its target to $49 from $59, and the stock is trading below its descending 100-day moving average. Despite the price struggles, call traders are actively targeting the stock, indicated by a high call/put volume ratio and significant call option activity.

https://www.schaeffersresearch.com/content/news/2026/02/11/upstart-stock-gaps-lower-after-earnings-whiff

Upstart (UPST) Q4 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates

Upstart Holdings (UPST) reported its Q4 earnings for December 2025, with revenues of $296.09 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.64%, and an EPS of $0.46. The article details how key financial metrics, such as transaction volume and various revenue streams, compared to analyst estimates, providing a deeper look into the company's financial health beyond just top and bottom-line figures. Despite the revenue beat, the stock has experienced a -14.1% return over the past month.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/upstart-upst-q4-earnings-taking-233002659.html

Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue Growth and ...

Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) reported record revenue growth in Q4 2025, with total revenue up 35% year-on-year and net income reaching $19 million. The company achieved significant origination growth and successfully reduced loans on its balance sheet, while expanding into auto and home loan products. Despite positive projections for future growth, the company noted a decline in contribution margins due to a shift towards secured products and prime borrowers, as well as investments in long-term customer value.

https://ca.investing.com/news/company-news/upstart-holdings-inc-upst-q4-2025-earnings-call-highlights-record-revenue-growth-and--4451524

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Misses Q4 Earnings Estimates

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) reported Q4 earnings of $0.46 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.47, despite an increase from $0.26 per share a year ago. The company's revenues for the quarter were $296.09 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Upstart currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) due to mixed estimate revisions, and its stock has underperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/upstart-holdings-inc-upst-misses-221503317.html

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Upstart Holdings Inc. Price History

29.00.2026 - UPST Stock was down 5.3%

• Despite positive growth over the past month, Upstart Holdings (UPST) faced a 4.49% decline today, underperforming the broader market.
• The company's upcoming earnings release with anticipated increases in EPS and revenue may have raised expectations, leading to a sell-off when the market sentiment did not align with these projections.
• Concerns about long payback periods, negative free cash flow, and a high P/E ratio may have contributed to investor caution and the bearish movement in the stock.
• While improvements in credit metrics were noted, the market may be reacting to the perceived overvaluation of the stock and the need for sustained positive performance to justify current price levels.

30.00.2026 - UPST Stock was down 5.4%

• Following the partnership between Upstart and Rize Credit Union to advance in the California market, there was a considerable downward trend in the company's stock.
• Despite earlier forecasts anticipating a robust recovery and growth trajectory for Upstart's stock in 2026, the recent depreciation in share value has overshadowed these projections.
• Upstart's stock demonstrated weaker performance compared to the broader market, evident from the 4.49% decline, which likely influenced the downward trend.
• Despite observed credit improvements, a neutral rating from BTIG and apprehensions regarding extended payback periods and negative free cash flow potentially heightened concerns around Upstart, contributing to the negative market sentiment and subsequent bearish market movement.

12.01.2026 - UPST Stock was down 7.6%

• Upstart Holdings achieved remarkable revenue growth and outperformed revenue expectations in Q4 2025. However, the stock faced a notable decrease as it fell short of earnings per share (EPS) estimates, raising concerns among investors regarding its profitability.
• Changes in the executive leadership team and a less robust margin outlook for 2026 added to the prevailing negative market sentiment, resulting in challenges with stock prices and analysts revising downward their price targets.
• The heightened options trading activity, particularly increased put purchases, indicates a readiness for potential market volatility and negative investor sentiment, notwithstanding the positive revenue outlook for the year.
• With the stock trading below its 100-day moving average and demonstrating weaker performance compared to the S&P 500 so far this year, Upstart's shares faced additional downward pressure, mirroring broader market issues impacting the company's financial performance.

06.01.2026 - UPST Stock was up 5.6%

• Despite some worries about overvaluation and market performance, UPST displayed a notable uptrend today.
• The market is looking forward to the Q4 earnings release on February 10, 2026, which could be driving positive sentiment among investors.
• Concerns raised in recent discussions regarding weak market sentiments and potential downside risks seem to have been disregarded due to positive market sentiment and speculative trading.
• Investors are likely turning their attention to growth opportunities and non-traditional metrics, contributing to the positive movement in UPST despite previous declines and valuation concerns.

05.00.2026 - UPST Stock was up 5.8%

• UPST stock witnessed a significant upward trend today.
• The increase in UPST stock value is linked to the company's unexpected Q4 profit, which exceeded analyst predictions and showcased enhancements in crucial financial indicators.
• The optimistic market response also mirrors investors' confidence in Upstart's AI-centered lending platform and its ability to adjust to market dynamics, as exemplified by an "Outperform" rating on UPST shares from analyst Dan Dolev of Mizuho.
• Despite potential challenges from competitors and the cyclical nature of the industry, Upstart's groundbreaking approach to consumer lending and strong financial performance have set the stage for sustained growth and a leading position in the fintech sector.

11.01.2026 - UPST Stock was down 15.9%

• UPST witnessed a -14.1% decline in market performance despite posting strong revenue growth and surpassing revenue expectations recently.
• The company's failure to meet Q4 earnings forecasts, despite an improvement from the prior year, likely impacted market sentiment negatively.
• Upstart's strategic pivot towards secured loan products and prime borrowers resulted in reduced contribution margins, prompting concerns among investors regarding its profitability.
• The market reaction to a CEO transition and the introduction of monthly origination volume disclosures was subdued compared to the response to the earnings disappointment.

22.00.2026 - UPST Stock was up 5.1%

• UPST stock saw a surge following a partnership with Rize Credit Union aimed at expanding personal loan access in California, signaling the company's growth and innovation focus.
• After an initial increase, the stock cooled due to market volatility and geopolitical concerns affecting tech stocks, indicating the impact of external factors on stock price changes.
• Despite a notable decrease following a fundraising program announcement, UPST's emphasis on strategic initiatives like AI-based lending models positions it for success in the competitive fintech sector in the long term.
• A comparison with SoFi Technologies highlights the competitive nature of the fintech industry, with each company having its strengths, but UPST's distinct value proposition in AI lending continues to attract investor attention, even amid short-term ups and downs.

12.00.2026 - UPST Stock was down 5.1%

• The bearish movement in UPST's stock today could be attributed to profit-taking by investors after a recent surge in share price.
• Despite positive news such as Truist Securities initiating coverage with a 'Buy' rating and Upstart's strong financial performance, the market may have reacted to potential concerns raised about the company's exposure to the credit cycle.
• The partnership with MyPoint Credit Union and the focus on profitability and operational efficiency might have positively impacted investor sentiment, but short-term market dynamics could have influenced the bearish movement today.
• Overall, the market movement in UPST today could be a combination of profit-taking, cautious investor sentiment regarding credit cycle exposure, and short-term fluctuations in the market.

05.01.2026 - UPST Stock was down 5.1%

• UPST stock saw a significant bearish movement, dropping more than the general market and its sector.
• The upcoming earnings report on February 10, 2026, with projected increases in EPS and revenue, may have heightened investor expectations.
• Concerns about valuation may have arisen due to the stock's current Forward P/E ratio being higher than its industry average.
• The recent month's depreciation of 21.72% could have contributed to increased selling pressure and profit-taking among investors.

23.00.2026 - UPST Stock was down 5.3%

• The partnership between Upstart and Rize Credit Union to expand access to personal loans in California initially boosted Upstart's stock price. However, the subsequent cooling down of shares could be attributed to general market volatility and geopolitical concerns affecting tech stocks.
• The introduction of new options for UPST, including a put contract and a covered call strategy, indicates investor interest in managing risk and generating income amidst the stock's fluctuations.
• Despite being touted as a potential millionaire-maker due to its growth prospects and technological advantages, Upstart's stock experienced a bearish movement, possibly influenced by broader market conditions and profit-taking by investors.
• While Upstart's AI models have driven revenue growth and profitability, the stock's decline today may reflect a combination of profit booking, market uncertainty, and investors reassessing their positions in light of recent events impacting the tech sector.

16.00.2026 - UPST Stock was up 5.2%

• UPST displayed strong bullish momentum today, despite recent fluctuations in its share price.
• The anticipation surrounding the announcement of the fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results on February 10, 2026, may have positively influenced investor sentiment.
• The market's interest in UPST remains strong due to its AI-based credit scoring system, which boosts loan approvals while minimizing defaults.
• Potential growth opportunities outlined in a recent analysis of top fintech stocks, including UPST, seem to have overshadowed analysts' varied ratings and the recent share price decline.

10.01.2026 - UPST Stock was up 7.5%

• UPST stock had a bullish day as investors looked forward to the Q4 earnings report, which is anticipated to reveal notable revenue growth and adjusted earnings per share.
• Analysts have a positive outlook on UPST, expecting the company to exceed revenue projections and uphold its credit quality, attracting investor attention.
• Despite concerns about the stock trading below the average analyst price target recently, the optimism stems from UPST's innovative AI-driven underwriting approach and its promising growth potential.
• Concerns about weak sentiment and downside risk in real-time analysis could be overshadowed by the bullish outlook emphasizing UPST's growth opportunities and disruptive market strategies.