Heating Oil ($HEATOIL) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.1% Today

What is Heating Oil?

Heating Oil is a crucial commodity used for heating purposes during the winter season. Today, the market experienced a strong bearish movement, with prices declining significantly.

Why is Heating Oil going down?

HEATOIL commodity is down 5.1% on Jan 30, 2026 1:21

• Heating Oil futures fell more than 4% today, pulling back from a recent rally, as markets assessed that the peak US cold has passed and inventories unexpectedly increased.
• The bearish movement can be attributed to a combination of factors including a warmer weather outlook, higher-than-expected inventory levels, and a temporary disruption in Gulf Coast exports due to severe weather conditions.
• Despite the recent pullback, Heating Oil futures had been on an upward trend, supported by earlier cold-driven demand, refinery disruptions, and increased fuel oil use for power generation.
• The recent decline in prices could also be influenced by the milder temperatures expected in the coming weeks, which may reduce heating demand and impact the durability of the recent rally.

HEATOIL Price Chart

HEATOIL Technical Analysis

HEATOIL News

Heating Oil Futures Halt 4-Day Rally

US heating oil futures fell more than 4% to $2.55 per gallon, pulling back from a four-day rally of 12.4% that pushed prices to a 10-week high of $2.67, as markets judged that peak US cold has passed and inventories unexpectedly increased. Distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, rose by 329 thousand barrels against expectations for a 0.55 million barrel draw, while heating oil inventories increased by 26 thousand barrels after a larger build the prior week. Weather forecasts show slightly colder conditions in the eastern US during the first week of February but a warming trend in northern regions thereafter, according to Commodity Weather Group. Despite the pullback, heating oil futures remain more than 20% higher so far in January, supported by earlier cold driven demand, refinery disruptions, and increased fuel oil use for power generation as electricity demand surged and high natural gas prices encouraged fuel switching.

Heating Oil Rises to Over 2-Month High

US heating oil futures climbed above $2.65 per gallon to late November highs as an intense winter storm sharply boosted heating demand while simultaneously constraining supply across the refined products market. An Arctic blast sweeping large parts of the US drove a broad surge in energy consumption, tightening near term availability at a time when distillate inventories and refinery utilization remain stretched. Feedstock costs added further support after crude prices rose to near four month highs, with severe weather knocking out up to 2 million barrels per day of US crude production and temporarily disrupting Gulf Coast exports. Persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East alongside a sharply weaker US dollar reinforced upside pressure across the energy complex. However, gains in heating oil are increasingly capped as NOAA outlooks point to milder temperatures from the first week of February, curbing expected heating demand and tempering the durability of the recent rally.

Heating Oil Hits 9-week High

Heating Oil increased to 2.58 USD/Gal, the highest since November 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Heating Oil gained 20.86%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 5.2%.

Heating Oil Rises to Over 2-Month High

US heating oil futures rose more than 3% to around $2.51 per gallon, reaching an over two-month high as a massive winter storm sharply boosted demand for heating fuel. An Arctic blast sweeping across large parts of the US drove a surge in energy consumption, lifting prices across energy markets, including natural gas. The demand spike comes at a time when inventories and refinery runs are constrained, reducing the usual seasonal buffer and tightening near-term product availability. Meanwhile, crude oil benchmarks remained supported by persistent geopolitical risks, reinforcing feedstock strength for refined products. A softer US dollar added further support, improving affordability for non-US buyers.

Heating Oil Near 2-Month High

US heating oil futures climbed back above $2.43 per gallon to a near two month high as winter fuel demand intensified alongside firmer crude feedstock costs that have now extended gains for a fifth consecutive week. Prices were supported by forecasts of a severe Arctic blast across large parts of the United States which lifted heating demand and drove sharp gains across energy markets including natural gas as colder weather raised consumption expectations. Stronger winter usage has underpinned distillate prices even as inventories and refinery output remained constrained which reduced the usual seasonal buffer and tightened near term product availability. At the same time crude benchmarks stayed supported by ongoing geopolitical and supply concerns reinforcing feedstock strength for refined products while a softer US dollar improved affordability for non US buyers and added further support.

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Heating Oil Price History

19.10.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 6.7%

• Heating Oil prices surged to a 19-month high of $2.71 per gallon, driven by supply worries and robust demand as winter approaches.
• Geopolitical tensions and supply risks in the crude oil market, including Russian sanctions and disruptions, contributed to the bullish sentiment.
• Despite a slight drop in prices following a smaller-than-expected draw in distillate inventories, the overall market remains bullish due to ongoing supply constraints and the tightening distillate complex.
• The market is closely monitoring global oil demand forecasts, supply dynamics, and geopolitical developments to gauge the future trajectory of Heating Oil prices.

30.00.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.1%

• Heating Oil futures fell more than 4% today, pulling back from a recent rally, as markets assessed that the peak US cold has passed and inventories unexpectedly increased.
• The bearish movement can be attributed to a combination of factors including a warmer weather outlook, higher-than-expected inventory levels, and a temporary disruption in Gulf Coast exports due to severe weather conditions.
• Despite the recent pullback, Heating Oil futures had been on an upward trend, supported by earlier cold-driven demand, refinery disruptions, and increased fuel oil use for power generation.
• The recent decline in prices could also be influenced by the milder temperatures expected in the coming weeks, which may reduce heating demand and impact the durability of the recent rally.

20.10.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.1%

• Heating Oil experienced a bearish movement today due to a combination of factors:
• An unexpected distillate build of 171 thousand barrels tempered immediate physical tightness, easing the upside potential for Heating Oil prices.
• Crude feedstock costs softened as crude prices fell amid signals of potential diplomatic resolutions to a conflict, reducing the geopolitical risk premium.
• Forecasts of a possible global surplus next year by an organization and rising global inventories weighed on crude fundamentals, indirectly impacting Heating Oil prices.
• Colder weather forecasts for late November and early December revived heating demand, but the market is now balancing softer crude fundamentals against genuine product tightness, with weather likely to dictate the next market move.

18.10.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.0%

• The bullish movement in heating oil prices can be attributed to supply risks in the crude feedstock complex, which lifted oil benchmarks and offset concerns about a global surplus.
• Recent events such as Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian ports, staff cuts at Lukoil, and reduced purchases of Russian crude by India and China have tightened near-term seaborne flows, contributing to the bullish sentiment.
• However, the market remains cautious as forecasts of rising global inventories and a potential supply glut in the oil market could pose challenges in the future, balancing the current bullish outlook for heating oil.

28.00.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 6.0%

• Heating Oil prices surged to more than a 2-month peak as a significant winter storm in the US elevated energy usage, leading to supply constraints and heightened demand for heating fuel.
• The climb in heating oil prices was further propelled by higher crude feedstock expenses, geopolitical instabilities in the Middle East, and a depreciation in the US dollar, collectively contributing to the upward trend in the market.
• Projections of warmer weather starting from the initial week of February might moderate the recent upturn in heating oil prices as an expected reduction in heating demand could alleviate the upward pressure on prices.
• The amalgamation of extreme weather conditions, supply limitations, geopolitical uncertainties, and currency fluctuations all had a role in propelling Heating Oil to its peak levels in recent months.

23.09.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.2%

• Heating Oil futures experienced a strong bullish movement today, reaching a three-week high of $2.32 per gallon. This surge can be attributed to several factors:
• New sanctions on Russia's top oil producers tightened global supply expectations, boosting prices.
• Weather forecasts shifting towards seasonally normal conditions signaled rising heating demand.
• The report of distillate fuel oil stocks staying below average, along with significant stock draws earlier this year, added to the bullish sentiment.
• The rebound in Heating Oil prices also reflects a tight distillate complex meeting a firmer crude backdrop and an improved seasonal demand outlook.
• Despite the recent bearish trend with Heating Oil hitting a four-month low and an 18-week low, today's bullish movement indicates a shift in market sentiment driven by a combination of geopolitical events, weather forecasts, and supply-demand dynamics.

23.09.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.1%

• The bullish movement in Heating Oil prices was primarily driven by a sharp draw in distillate inventories and the onset of winter demand, despite weak crude feedstock costs.
• The tightening supply of heating fuels, along with expectations of higher heating demand due to cooler weather conditions, contributed to the rebound in Heating Oil prices.
• The market movement was also supported by a significant decrease in distillate stocks, indicating a tighter distillate complex.
• Despite concerns about weak demand and global supply pressures on crude oil, Heating Oil outperformed other oil benchmarks due to the favorable inventory data and seasonal demand outlook.

28.00.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.0%

• Heating Oil prices surged to a 9-week high of $2.58 per gallon, driven by a massive winter storm increasing demand for heating fuel.
• The Arctic blast sweeping across the US intensified energy consumption, tightening near-term product availability and supporting higher prices.
• Geopolitical risks, including President Trump's warning of possible military action against Iran, and supply concerns in Kazakhstan contributed to the bullish movement.
• Despite a slight drop after the EIA report, Heating Oil remains supported by tightening seasonal demand and supply disruptions, maintaining its bullish momentum.

14.00.2026 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 2.3%

• Heating oil prices surged to a one-month high due to renewed geopolitical risks and tighter US crude balances, reflecting concerns over unrest in Iran and uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan supply.
• Despite the recent rebound from seven-month lows, heating oil remains under pressure from ample supply and warmer-than-normal temperatures across the eastern US, which are suppressing seasonal demand.
• The sharp recovery in crude benchmarks and the larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories contributed to the recent price increase, indicating a delicate balance between supply dynamics and geopolitical factors influencing the market movement.

18.06.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.3%

• The bullish movement in heating oil prices today can be attributed to a combination of factors:
• Softening consumption signals and concerns over trade wars have tipped the supply/demand balance towards ample stocks, leading to a drop in prices.
• President Trump's threat of imposing tariffs on EU and Mexican goods, along with existing duties on Canadian energy products, has injected uncertainty into global economic growth forecasts, potentially slowing fuel consumption.
• Refiners in China favoring gasoline and diesel output over middle distillates have left heating oil more exposed, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
• On the other hand, the bullish movement can also be linked to rising crude feedstock costs lifting refining margins and supporting distillate values, leading to higher heating oil prices.

18.06.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.4%

• The surge in heating oil prices to near one-month highs can be attributed to a combination of factors such as warfare in the Middle East, tight supplies, solid demand, and output disruptions in Iraqi Kurdistan and EU sanctions on Russian oil, creating a bullish sentiment in the market.
• Conversely, the drop in heating oil prices to a monthly low was influenced by softer consumption signals, renewed trade-war concerns, a surprise build in distillate inventories in the US, and President Trump's tariff threats on EU and Mexican goods, leading to a bearish market movement.
• The upward momentum in heating oil prices, hovering at two-week highs, was driven by rising crude feedstock costs, refining margins, and distillate values, as well as ongoing refinery maintenance and disruptions in bunker fuel flows to Europe, supporting the bullish trend in the market.

21.10.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 6.2%

• The bearish movement in Heating Oil prices today can be attributed to:
• A surprise build in distillate inventories, breaking a streak of heavy draws and easing immediate physical tightness.
• Falling crude prices due to diplomatic signals indicating a potential peace talks scenario between two countries, which could lead to higher oil exports and alleviate oversupply concerns.
• Rising US crude stocks and forecasts of a possible global surplus next year, softening forward pricing and weighing on crude feedstock costs support.
• The market balancing softer crude fundamentals against genuine product tightness, with colder weather forecasts driving buying but also concerns about global inventories and supply glut in the longer term.