Heating Oil ($HEATOIL) Commodity Forecast: Up 6.9% Today

What is Heating Oil?

Heating oil futures have experienced a volatile trading day, with significant price movements driven by various factors such as geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainties, and supply data.

Why is Heating Oil going up?

HEATOIL commodity is up 6.9% on Jun 13, 2025 11:36

• Heating oil prices surged to multi-month highs as Middle East tensions escalated, leading to concerns about potential supply disruptions and increased demand for the commodity.
• Conversely, prices retreated from recent highs amid trade uncertainties and ample distillate inventories, dampening market sentiment and putting downward pressure on prices.
• A combination of tightening crude supplies, easing trade frictions, and strong seasonal demand expectations pushed prices to a 10-month high, despite the surge in distillate inventories tempering the rally.
• Overall, the bullish movement in heating oil prices today can be attributed to a mix of geopolitical events, trade developments, supply dynamics, and seasonal demand outlook, showcasing the complexity of factors influencing commodity markets.

HEATOIL Price Chart

HEATOIL Technical Analysis

HEATOIL News

Heating Oil Hits 3-Month High as Middle East Tensions Escalate

Heating oil futures surged past $2.30 per gallon, reaching their highest level since late February, amid mounting Middle East tensions. Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, missile production sites, and top military officials, calling it the beginning of a long-term campaign to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. In response, Iran fired around 100 drones toward Israeli territory. The flare-up comes ahead of the sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks, set for Sunday in Oman. Meanwhile, EIA data showed a surprise supply build, with distillate inventories rising by 1.246 million barrels—twice the expected increase—and heating oil stocks climbing by 487,000 barrels, the largest weekly gain since January.

Heating Oil Retreats From 10-Week Highs

Heating oil futures fell to around $2.18 per gallon, easing from the ten-week high of $2.209 seen June 11th, as the recent pullback in crude-oil benchmarks weighed on fuel values amid fresh trade uncertainty and ample distillate inventories. President Trump’s announcement that he will dispatch formal tariff letters to key trading partners in the coming weeks, ahead of the 90-day pause on reciprocal levies expiring next month, has rattled demand expectations for energy. At the same time, the latest EIA data showed distillate stocks swelling by 1.246 million barrels, double the forecast, and heating-oil inventories surging by 487,000 barrels, the largest build since January, intensifying downward pressure on prices despite seasonally strong consumption forecasts.

Heating Oil Rises to 10-Month High

Heating oil futures surged to about $2.20 per gallon, a ten-week high, driven by tightening crude supplies, easing trade frictions and firm seasonal demand expectations. US crude inventories plunged by 3.64 million barrels in the week to June 6th, far exceeding the 2.5 million-barrel draw forecast, underscoring upstream tightness. Geopolitical optimism following President Trump’s “deal done” declaration with China and commitments to restore the Geneva tariff truce have stoked hopes for stronger global oil consumption, even as OPEC+ readies a 411,000 bpd output increase in July. Meanwhile, above-normal June temperature forecasts point to robust residential and commercial heating-oil use, keeping the market in backwardation. However, distillate inventories swelled by 1.25 million barrels, twice the anticipated gain, and heating-oil stocks jumped by 487,000 barrels, the largest build since January, tempering the rally.

Heating Oil Hits 4-week High

Heating Oil increased to a 4-week high of 2.19 USD/Gal. Over the past 4 weeks, Heating Oil gained 3.5%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 10.36%.

US Heating Oil Futures Rise to 3-Week High

Heating oil futures in the US climbed to $2.13 per gallon, the highest level in three weeks, supported by gains across broader energy markets. Optimism over renewed US-China trade negotiations boosted sentiment, as officials from both countries prepare for fresh talks in London following a call between President Trump and President Xi. This raised hopes for easing tariff tensions, which could improve global oil demand. In Canada, wildfires temporarily cut around 7% of oil output, though rainfall allowed some production to resume. On the supply front, EIA data showed US distillate fuel inventories rose by 4.2 million barrels for the week ending May 30, nearly double expectations, partially offsetting upward price pressure. Looking ahead, forecasts point to warmer-than-normal weather into mid-June.

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Heating Oil Price History

31.02.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 1.9%

• The recent bearish movement in Heating Oil can be attributed to the surge in feedstock costs, driven by tightening global supply and increased input costs for refineries.
• The drawdown in inventories and rising feedstock costs have led to a rebound in heating oil futures, pushing prices above $2.3 per gallon.
• The tariffs imposed on Canadian crude have further contributed to the elevated feedstock costs, impacting the overall market sentiment and leading to the bearish movement in Heating Oil today.

30.04.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 2.7%

• Heating Oil futures fell to a 3-week low of $2.05 per gallon due to expectations of ample crude oil availability, reducing feedstock costs for distillate fuel producers.
• OPEC+ members are anticipated to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in July, despite uncertainties in the economic landscape and weakened Chinese demand affecting oil consumption.
• Although distillate fuel stocks unexpectedly decreased, distillate fuel production saw a consecutive weekly rise, contributing to the bearish movement in Heating Oil prices.

04.03.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.3%

• The bearish movement in Heating Oil today can be attributed to:
• OPEC+ unexpectedly raising production by 411,000 barrels per day, leading to an oversupply of crude oil and subsequently pushing down heating oil prices.
• Trump's 10% tariff on all U.S. imports heightening recession fears, which could potentially weaken industrial activity and consumer spending, dampening overall energy demand.
• Seasonal factors such as the transition to milder temperatures reducing heating needs, resulting in a decline in consumption and putting downward pressure on prices.
• The combination of ample supply, subdued demand, and fears of weaker economic activity due to tariffs and oversupply have contributed to the bearish movement in Heating Oil today.
• Despite the recent bearish trend, the market remains sensitive to geopolitical events, trade tensions, and seasonal fluctuations, which could continue to impact Heating Oil prices in the near term.

30.03.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.4%

• 1. The bearish movement in Heating Oil prices can be attributed to the overall downward pressure from falling feedstock costs amidst uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations.
• 2. The potential for oversupply in the market, exacerbated by hints of increased output from OPEC+ members and defiance of production rules by countries like Kazakhstan, has further weighed on prices.
• 3. The looming possibility of additional Iranian oil entering the market due to potential easing of nuclear sanctions adds to the bearish sentiment, as reflected in the sharp decline in Heating Oil futures.

04.01.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 0.8%

• The postponement of U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico has resulted in a decrease in heating oil prices. Concerns regarding supply disruptions have lessened, making crude oil feedstocks more cost-effective.
• Warmer-than-usual temperatures in key regions that consume heating oil have lowered demand, easing concerns of shortages during winter and contributing to the price drop.
• Despite a notable decrease in distillate inventories temporarily slowing the decline in heating oil prices, continual pressure remains due to milder winter conditions than anticipated. This pressure is further fueled by dropping crude oil prices triggered by increasing U.S. inventories and upcoming tariffs.

13.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 2.7%

• Heating Oil prices reached a 10-week peak of $2.20 per gallon driven by limited crude supplies, reduced trade tensions, and robust seasonal demand outlook.
• Uncertainty arose in the market due to President Trump's statements on tariffs and trade discussions with China, impacting energy product demand.
• Despite the price surge, growth in distillate and heating oil inventories moderated it, suggesting some downward pressure on prices amid an overall positive market sentiment.
• The bullish trend in Heating Oil is mainly due to supply constraints, trade dynamics, and seasonal demand, albeit partially offset by inventory builds.

13.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 6.9%

• Heating oil prices surged to multi-month highs as Middle East tensions escalated, leading to concerns about potential supply disruptions and increased demand for the commodity.
• Conversely, prices retreated from recent highs amid trade uncertainties and ample distillate inventories, dampening market sentiment and putting downward pressure on prices.
• A combination of tightening crude supplies, easing trade frictions, and strong seasonal demand expectations pushed prices to a 10-month high, despite the surge in distillate inventories tempering the rally.
• Overall, the bullish movement in heating oil prices today can be attributed to a mix of geopolitical events, trade developments, supply dynamics, and seasonal demand outlook, showcasing the complexity of factors influencing commodity markets.

10.00.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.1%

• The surge in heating oil prices was primarily fueled by tightening supply conditions, with U.S. crude inventories falling for the seventh consecutive week and Russian seaborne exports reaching their lowest levels in months.
• Geopolitical tensions, such as the possibility of new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, added to market concerns and contributed to the bullish momentum.
• Cold weather increased heating demand, further supporting the price rally, despite worries over weak Chinese demand and a stronger U.S. dollar putting pressure on international buyers.
• The market movement also reflected a delicate balance between supply dynamics and external factors, highlighting the interplay of geopolitical events, weather patterns, and economic indicators in shaping commodity prices.

03.03.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.9%

• The bearish movement in Heating Oil today can be attributed to the combination of factors such as:
• Changes in production levels by OPEC+ leading to an increase in crude oil supply and lower feedstock costs.
• Implementation of tariffs on U.S. imports impacting industrial activity and consumer spending, heightening recession fears and thereby reducing energy demand.
• Seasonal transitions to milder temperatures decreasing the need for heating oil and resulting in subdued demand.
• An unexpected build in distillate stockpiles and heating oil inventories, contrary to expectations, indicating plentiful supply and weakening demand dynamics.

03.03.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.0%

• Heating Oil experienced a bearish movement due to:
• Seasonal reductions in heating demand across key regions like Europe and North America, leading to lower consumption and easing pressure on storage facilities.
• Warmer-than-normal conditions expected through mid-April, further suppressing demand.
• Contrary to forecasted draws, there was a build in distillate stockpiles and an increase in heating oil inventories, signaling subdued demand.
• Despite trade tensions and higher crude prices, the natural seasonal drawdown in heating demand and efficient stock replenishment strategies kept prices modest.

09.03.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.4%

• Heating Oil experienced a strong bullish movement today, rebounding from recent lows.
• The market sentiment was lifted by the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, easing trade tensions and supporting energy markets.
• Additionally, a significant draw in U.S. distillate inventories and expectations of improved demand contributed to the price rally.
• The bearish trend in the previous assessments was driven by concerns over global economic slowdown, trade frictions, and production increases, leading to supply glut worries.

09.03.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.0%

• The bearish movement in Heating Oil can be attributed to several key factors:
• OPEC+ decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day, leading to oversupply concerns and downward pressure on oil prices.
• Rising U.S. crude inventories by 6.2 million barrels, well above expectations, signaling ample supply in the market.
• Trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with China imposing a 34% tariff on U.S. goods, contributing to fears of reduced energy demand.
• Seasonal factors such as milder temperatures reducing the need for heating oil, coupled with a build in distillate stockpiles, further dampening market sentiment.