Brent Crude Oil ($BRENT) Commodity Forecast: Down 10.5% Today

What is Brent Crude Oil?

Brent Crude Oil is a major global benchmark for oil prices, representing a blend of crude oil from the North Sea. The market for Brent Crude Oil is heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions and global supply and demand dynamics.

Why is Brent Crude Oil going down?

BRENT commodity is down 10.5% on Jun 24, 2025 14:37

• Brent Crude Oil saw a notable decrease today, with prices dropping approximately 5% to $68.1 per barrel.
• The price decline was initiated by an announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran by President Trump, easing concerns about oil supply disruptions in the Middle East.
• Market response to the ceasefire news was observed, as worries of Iran obstructing the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz decreased, which serves as a key route for global oil supply.
• Despite the current calm in tensions, the market remains wary as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran is fragile, accompanied by allegations of breaches and potential missile threats, maintaining uncertainty in the oil market.

BRENT Price Chart

BRENT Technical Analysis

BRENT News

Oil Extends Losses

Brent crude futures fell by around 5% to $68.1 per barrel, extending a 7.5% loss in the previous session and trading below levels seen on June 12 when Israel attacked Iran. The decline followed President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which both sides appear to have accepted. The news eased concerns over potential oil supply disruptions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which more than a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through daily. However, the truce remains fragile, as Israel has already accused Iran of violating the agreement, warning of new missile attacks from Iran and vowing to retaliate. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency had previously reassured markets that it holds 1.2 billion barrels in emergency stockpiles that could be deployed if needed. Also, some OPEC+ producers have already been increasing output and possess additional spare capacity that could be brought online.

Brent Crude Below $69

Brent crude futures pared some of their earlier losses but were still down nearly 3% to below $69 per barrel, after plunging as much as 6% earlier, trading below levels seen on June 12 when Israel attacked Iran. The decline followed President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which both sides appear to have accepted. The news eased concerns over potential oil supply disruptions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which more than a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through daily. However, the truce remains fragile, as Israel has already accused Iran of violating the agreement, warning of new missile attacks from Iran and vowing to retaliate. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency had previously reassured markets that it holds 1.2 billion barrels in emergency stockpiles that could be deployed if needed. Also, some OPEC+ producers have already been increasing output and possess additional spare capacity that could be brought online.

Brent Falls After Trump Announces Israel-Iran Ceasefire

Brent crude oil futures dropped more than 1% to around $69.1 per barrel on Tuesday, hitting its lowest level in nearly two weeks, after US President Donald Trump said that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire, alleviating fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Trump implied that the ceasefire was set to begin late on Monday, with Iran halting its attacks first, followed by Israel in the coming hours. If both sides maintain peace, the war will officially end after 24 hours, concluding a 12-day conflict. The announcement came just hours after Iran fired missiles at a US military base in Qatar in retaliation for US strikes on its nuclear facilities. US defenses intercepted the missiles and no casualties were reported, which led prices to settle over 7% lower on Monday. The de-escalation has eased concerns that Iran might attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes.

Brent Sinks 7% as Middle East Escalation Fears Ease

Brent crude oil futures plunged 7.2% to settle at $71.50 per barrel on Monday, after Iran’s missile strike on a US airbase in Qatar resulted in no reported casualties, easing fears of an immediate escalation in Middle East tensions. The attack, launched in retaliation for US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, was intercepted by Qatari defenses, triggering a sharp pullback after breaking above $81 on Sunday. While markets are now pricing in a potential de-escalation, significant risks remain—chief among them the threat of Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for about 20% of global oil flows. Although Iran’s parliament reportedly backed the move, the final decision rests with the country’s national security council. US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, warned that such a step would be “economic suicide” for Iran and urged China—its largest oil customer—to intervene.

Brent Extends Pullback

Brent crude oil futures extended their decline to the $74.5 per barrel threshold amid signs that Iran may refrain from targeting oil flows in the Persian Gulf as retaliation to strikes from the United States. Iran reportedly sent missiles to US bases in Qatar in response to the US's strikes at Iranian nuclear infrastructure over the weekend. Despite the escalation, oil tankers continued to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz and markets softened concerns that strikes would hamper the supply of oil, driving prices to fall sharply. Estimates indicate that over 20 million barrels per day of oil are shipped through the region, around 20% of global supply. Earlier, crude oil futures were up by over 6% but that rally was unwound as the market reassessed the risk of near-term disruption, waiting for Iran’s next move.

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Brent Crude Oil Price History

13.05.2025 - BRENT Commodity was up 6.4%

• Brent Crude Oil prices surged significantly by over 6-8% to reach around $73-$75 per barrel, hitting their highest levels since February, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly after Israel's strike on Iran.
• Geopolitical concerns in the region, especially fears of supply disruptions due to potential retaliation from Iran near the critical Strait of Hormuz, fueled investor worries and supported the bullish sentiment in the oil market.
• Additionally, data indicating a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories, along with softer U.S. inflation reinforcing expectations of Fed rate cuts, further contributed to the bullish momentum in Brent Crude Oil prices.
• The overall market sentiment remains influenced by geopolitical risks, supply-demand dynamics, and macroeconomic factors, shaping the trajectory of oil prices in the near term.

13.05.2025 - BRENT Commodity was up 4.0%

• Tensions between the US and Iran, with threats of supply disruptions, are raising concerns about oil availability, leading to price increases.
• Optimism regarding the US-China trade discussions and potential tariff reductions is enhancing expectations for higher energy demand from the top two global economies, aiding the oil price surge.
• The decline in US crude inventories, along with anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts spurring economic growth and oil demand, is also contributing to the positive momentum in Brent Crude Oil prices.

13.05.2025 - BRENT Commodity was up 9.1%

• Brent crude oil surged nearly 8% to $75 per barrel, hitting a two-month high, following Israel's preemptive strike on Iran. The fear of potential supply disruptions due to a broader conflict in the Middle East, including threats to the vital oil route of the Strait of Hormuz, contributed to the bullish momentum.
• The US preparing for a partial evacuation of personnel from the region after Iran's threats and the anticipation of Fed rate cuts by September added to the bullish sentiment by signaling potential economic growth and increased oil consumption.
• The ongoing US-China trade tensions and the agreement to ease tariffs also played a role in boosting optimism for energy demand, further supporting the rise in oil prices.
• Despite OPEC+ plans to increase output in July, the drawdown in US crude inventories and strong demand signals indicated by various data releases reinforced the bullish trend in Brent Crude Oil prices.

17.05.2025 - BRENT Commodity was up 5.6%

• Brent Crude Oil reached $73.5 per barrel, showing a strong bullish movement.
• The bullish trend is linked to increasing tensions between Israel and Iran. Israel's attacks on Iran's key energy infrastructure have raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East.
• There were indications of Iran's interest in de-escalating tensions and resuming nuclear negotiations, leading to a brief pullback in oil prices. However, the market remains volatile due to the ongoing conflict.
• The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil trade, remains a point of concern. Possible disruptions in the strait pose a significant risk to oil prices in the near term.

17.05.2025 - BRENT Commodity was up 5.0%

• Brent Crude Oil surged over 4% to settle at $76.4 per barrel on Tuesday.
• The uptrend was mainly fueled by escalating tensions between the US and Iran, with US President Donald Trump's strong language and threats towards Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei raising concerns about supply.
• Israel's airstrikes on Iran and the potential for disruptions in energy flows and trade routes added to the market's edginess regarding a possible escalation in the conflict.
• Despite the price hike, analysts highlighted that the oil market has maintained stability due to robust global supply, including increased OPEC+ production and record US output. However, any move by Iran to block the critical Strait of Hormuz could propel prices above $100 per barrel.

23.05.2025 - BRENT Commodity was down 13.5%

• Brent Crude Oil experienced a strong bearish movement, dropping 7.2% to settle at $71.50 per barrel.
• The market reacted to easing fears of an immediate escalation in Middle East tensions following Iran's missile strike on a US airbase in Qatar, which resulted in no reported casualties.
• Despite the initial rally in oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, the pullback occurred as markets reassessed the risk of near-term disruption in oil supply, especially through the vital Strait of Hormuz.
• The potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict and the market's reaction to geopolitical developments led to the significant drop in Brent Crude Oil prices.

23.05.2025 - BRENT Commodity was down 10.1%

• The bearish movement in Brent Crude Oil today was primarily driven by the market reassessing the risk of near-term disruption in oil supply, leading to a sharp decline in prices.
• Despite initial bullish sentiment due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, the decision by President Trump to delay potential military involvement tempered fears of an immediate supply shock, triggering profit-taking and contributing to the bearish movement.
• The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including missile exchanges between Israel and Iran, continue to threaten the supply of energy from the region, adding further uncertainty to oil markets and influencing the bearish movement in Brent Crude Oil today.

23.05.2025 - BRENT Commodity was down 6.3%

• The decline in Brent Crude Oil prices today can be linked to President Trump's choice to postpone possible US military action against Iran, momentarily easing tensions in the Middle East.
• Market response was negative due to the delay in military engagement reducing the immediate risk of supply disruptions, prompting investors to take profits.
• Despite the price fall, the Middle East remains precarious with ongoing missile exchanges between Israel and Iran, raising concerns about potential disruptions in global crude oil flow via the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
• Geopolitical risks, supply limitations, and economic conditions still heavily influence the oil market sentiment, resulting in a complicated and unpredictable trading environment for Brent Crude Oil.

16.05.2025 - BRENT Commodity was down 5.7%

• The bearish movement in Brent Crude Oil prices today can be attributed to the easing of tensions between Israel and Iran, leading investors to scale back on risk-off trades.
• The market sentiment shifted as signs emerged that the conflict may not escalate further, especially with Iran's oil infrastructure remaining untouched, reducing fears of immediate supply disruptions.
• Despite the retreat in oil prices, geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain elevated, particularly concerns about potential disruptions to the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil consumption flows.
• The cancellation of nuclear talks between Iran and the US also added to the uncertainty in the market, contributing to the downward pressure on Brent Crude Oil prices today.

24.05.2025 - BRENT Commodity was down 10.5%

• Brent Crude Oil saw a notable decrease today, with prices dropping approximately 5% to $68.1 per barrel.
• The price decline was initiated by an announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran by President Trump, easing concerns about oil supply disruptions in the Middle East.
• Market response to the ceasefire news was observed, as worries of Iran obstructing the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz decreased, which serves as a key route for global oil supply.
• Despite the current calm in tensions, the market remains wary as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran is fragile, accompanied by allegations of breaches and potential missile threats, maintaining uncertainty in the oil market.

24.05.2025 - BRENT Commodity was down 11.2%

• The bearish movement in Brent Crude Oil was triggered by the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, easing fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
• The de-escalation of tensions following Iran's missile strike on a US military base in Qatar, which resulted in no casualties, contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices.
• The market reacted negatively to the news of a potential peace agreement, as it reduced the perceived risk of Iran blocking the critical Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil flows.
• Despite initial concerns of supply disruptions, the market sentiment shifted towards oversupply as oil tankers continued to navigate through the region, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices.

24.05.2025 - BRENT Commodity was down 10.5%

• Brent crude oil prices plummeted by nearly 3% to below $69 per barrel following an announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, easing concerns over potential oil supply disruptions in the region.
• The de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly after a missile strike on a US airbase resulted in no casualties, contributed to the bearish movement as fears of immediate escalation subsided.
• Market sentiment shifted as signs emerged that Iran might refrain from targeting oil flows in the Persian Gulf, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices as the risk of near-term disruption lessened.
• Despite the initial rally in oil prices due to US involvement in the conflict, the reassessment of risks and waiting for Iran's next move ultimately drove Brent crude oil prices down, highlighting the volatility of the commodity market in response to geopolitical events.