Mattel Inc. ($MAT) Stock Forecast: Down 28.6% Today

What is Mattel Inc.?

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a renowned toy company known for its iconic brands like Barbie, Hot Wheels, and Fisher-Price. The company operates in the consumer discretionary sector and is listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Why is Mattel Inc. going down?

MAT stock is down 28.6% on Feb 11, 2026 15:47

• Mattel's stock experienced a bearish movement following the company's sluggish results for the holiday quarter, despite a 7% increase in net sales. This decline was primarily driven by lower-than-expected December U.S. billings and a decrease in adjusted gross margins due to various factors like higher discounts, inflation, unfavorable forex, and tariffs.
• The acquisition of full ownership of the Mattel163 mobile games studio from NetEase for $159 million was seen as a strategic move to strengthen Mattel's digital games business. This acquisition aligns with Mattel's focus on innovation, partnerships, and entertainment expansion, aiming to enhance its product roadmap and drive long-term growth.
• Despite mixed financial results for 2025, with weaknesses in certain product lines offset by growth in others, Mattel unveiled a new $1.5 billion share repurchase plan and emphasized investments in IP-driven entertainment and gaming. This strategic shift indicates the company's commitment to stimulating growth and leveraging its intellectual property across different platforms.
• The introduction of the Hot Wheels Aston Martin Vantage GT3 building set by Mattel Brick Shop showcases the company's dedication to product innovation and brand expansion. This move not only caters to collectors and enthusiasts but also reinforces the appeal of Mattel's iconic Hot Wheels brand in the competitive toy market.

MAT Price Chart

MAT Technical Analysis

MAT News

Toy story: Mattel slides after sluggish results for the holiday quarter (MAT:NASDAQ)

Mattel, Inc. (MAT) shares dropped in postmarket trading after the company reported sluggish results for the crucial holiday quarter, missing analyst estimates despite a 7% year-over-year increase in net sales. The decline was attributed to lower-than-expected December U.S. billings and a decrease in adjusted gross margins, which fell to 46.0% from 50.8% due to higher discounts, inflation, unfavorable forex, and tariffs. Looking forward, Mattel anticipates full-year sales growth of 3%-6% and plans to focus on a brand-centric strategy involving innovation, partnerships, and entertainment expansion.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4549835-toy-story-mattel-slides-after-sluggish-results-for-the-holiday-quarter

Mattel to Acquire Full Ownership of Mattel163 Mobile Games Studio, Strengthening its Digital Games Business

Mattel, Inc. announced an agreement to acquire full ownership of the Mattel163 mobile games studio from its joint venture partner, NetEase, for $159 million. This acquisition, expected to close by the end of Q1, will enhance Mattel's digital games business, integrate development expertise, and align with their broader product roadmap. Mattel163 has already developed four successful games based on Mattel IP, accumulating over 550 million downloads and 20 million monthly active users worldwide.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260210654553/en/Mattel-to-Acquire-Full-Ownership-of-Mattel163-Mobile-Games-Studio-Strengthening-its-Digital-Games-Business

Mattel Unveils New Buyback Plan Amid Mixed 2025 Results

Mattel (MAT) reported mixed financial results for 2025, with fourth-quarter net sales up 7% year-over-year but full-year net sales slightly down due to weaknesses in North American dolls and preschool lines, despite growth in Hot Wheels and action figures. In response, the company announced a new $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization and is increasing investments in IP-driven entertainment and gaming, including the full acquisition of Mattel163 mobile games studio, to stimulate long-term growth. Analysts currently rate MAT stock as a Hold with a $22.00 price target, while TipRanks’ AI Analyst, Spark, rates it as Outperform, citing a stable financial position but acknowledging risks from revenue growth challenges and retailer ordering pattern shifts.

https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/mattel-unveils-new-buyback-plan-amid-mixed-2025-results

Mattel Buys NetEase’s Stake in Gaming Venture for $159 Million

Mattel Inc. is acquiring NetEase Inc.’s 50% stake in their mobile gaming joint venture, Mattel163, for $159 million. This move aims to accelerate the toy giant's growth in the mobile gaming sector. The joint venture, formed in 2018, has developed popular mobile games based on Mattel's intellectual property, such as Uno and Skip-Bo, which have garnered 550 million downloads.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-10/mattel-buys-netease-s-stake-in-gaming-venture-for-159-million

From Track to Tabletop: Mattel Brick Shop™ Debuts the Hot Wheels® Aston Martin Vantage GT3

Mattel Brick Shop is releasing a new Hot Wheels Aston Martin Vantage GT3 building set, inspired by the competitive GT racing car. The 793-piece set features real metal parts, authentic detailing, and interchangeable decals, replicating the aggressive stance and aerodynamic design of the original. Collectors can pre-order the 1:16 scale model, which also includes an exclusive 1:64 scale Hot Wheels die-cast car, for $49.99.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260210618949/en/From-Track-to-Tabletop-Mattel-Brick-Shop-Debuts-the-Hot-Wheels-Aston-Martin-Vantage-GT3

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Mattel Inc. Price History

10.09.2025 - MAT Stock was down 5.0%

• The partnership with MoMA and the launch of a new capsule collection could enhance Mattel's brand image and appeal to art and design-conscious consumers.
• However, the collaboration with OpenAI and the focus on AI in toy design may have sparked concerns among investors about the company's core business strategy and innovation capabilities.
• The bearish movement in the stock price might be linked to investor uncertainty about Mattel's direction, with some viewing the AI collaboration as a departure from its traditional strengths.
• Despite aiming to explore new opportunities and adapt to a tech-driven environment through partnerships with MoMA and OpenAI, the market's response indicates some investor skepticism or caution about Mattel's future prospects.

24.06.2025 - MAT Stock was down 6.5%

• Mattel stock faced a decline today following decreased Barbie sales in the second quarter, resulting in both a sales shortfall and a downward revision of full-year guidance.
• In spite of Q2 earnings exceeding expectations, the market sentiment was negatively impacted by the effects of tariffs on Barbie sales.
• While the company's strong brand partnerships and core growth showed promise, challenges such as margin pressures and retail caution added to the stock's downward trajectory.
• Investors are keenly observing any strategic moves by Mattel to navigate the complex toy industry landscape and restore confidence in the market.

09.11.2025 - MAT Stock was down 5.2%

• A notable decline in Panagora Asset Management Inc.'s holdings of Mattel implies skepticism regarding the company's future performance, impacting the stock's downward trend.
• Analysts collectively rate Mattel a "Hold," reflecting a cautious stance following the company's recent earnings setback and revised guidance.
• Despite market bearishness, Diametric Capital LP's investment in Mattel may indicate confidence in the company's prospective recovery.
• The prevailing market sentiment appears to be swayed by Mattel's recent financial results rather than external influences, driving a significant drop in the stock price.

23.09.2025 - MAT Stock was up 5.1%

• Despite falling short of Q3 earnings and revenue expectations, Mattel's stock showed a positive trend.
• The recent collaboration with Netflix to create toys inspired by the animated movie KPop Demon Hunters might have triggered investor confidence.
• The market seems to interpret the decline in North American sales and earnings miss as potential opportunities for Mattel to expand its product range.
• Investors are possibly anticipating improved future performance for Mattel, driven by the success of new toy collections and partnerships, which could explain the uptrend in the stock.

11.01.2026 - MAT Stock was down 28.6%

• Mattel's stock experienced a bearish movement following the company's sluggish results for the holiday quarter, despite a 7% increase in net sales. This decline was primarily driven by lower-than-expected December U.S. billings and a decrease in adjusted gross margins due to various factors like higher discounts, inflation, unfavorable forex, and tariffs.
• The acquisition of full ownership of the Mattel163 mobile games studio from NetEase for $159 million was seen as a strategic move to strengthen Mattel's digital games business. This acquisition aligns with Mattel's focus on innovation, partnerships, and entertainment expansion, aiming to enhance its product roadmap and drive long-term growth.
• Despite mixed financial results for 2025, with weaknesses in certain product lines offset by growth in others, Mattel unveiled a new $1.5 billion share repurchase plan and emphasized investments in IP-driven entertainment and gaming. This strategic shift indicates the company's commitment to stimulating growth and leveraging its intellectual property across different platforms.
• The introduction of the Hot Wheels Aston Martin Vantage GT3 building set by Mattel Brick Shop showcases the company's dedication to product innovation and brand expansion. This move not only caters to collectors and enthusiasts but also reinforces the appeal of Mattel's iconic Hot Wheels brand in the competitive toy market.

07.04.2025 - MAT Stock was up 5.8%

• Mattel's stock experienced a strong bullish movement today despite pausing its 2025 guidance due to tariff uncertainty.
• The company's beat on Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, along with margin improvement and strong cash reserves, contributed to the positive market sentiment.
• Mattel's decision to raise prices to offset the impact of tariffs on China, amidst President Trump's predictions of higher prices for toys, could have reassured investors about the company's proactive approach to mitigate cost impacts.
• The robust sales in North America and the company's strategic actions to address tariff concerns seem to have instilled confidence in investors, driving the bullish movement in the stock.

21.10.2025 - MAT Stock was up 5.3%

• The positive movement in Mattel Inc. (MAT) could be linked to favorable sentiment following its recent earnings report, which unveiled promising results, instilling confidence among investors.
• The uptick in short interest might have also played a role in the positive movement, with short sellers potentially initiating the covering of their positions, subsequently boosting the stock price.
• In sum, the combination of robust earnings performance and short covering activity likely propelled the upward trend in Mattel's stock today.

10.03.2025 - MAT Stock was down 7.3%

• Mattel's stock (MAT) recently saw a significant decrease in value, even after a notable 8.0% increase.
• Despite a temporary rise in trading volume, the stock's positive momentum was short-lived.
• Speculations suggest that alterations in earnings projections could be impacting investor confidence, contributing to the stock's downward trend.
• Concerns regarding Mattel's future performance may have triggered a wave of selling, overriding the initial optimism.

06.04.2025 - MAT Stock was up 1.7%

• Mattel (MAT) experienced a strong bullish movement today following the release of its first-quarter 2025 financial results, which exceeded expectations.
• The company's robust sales in North America contributed to narrower losses than estimated and surpassed revenue expectations, instilling confidence in investors.
• Despite the positive performance, Mattel paused its full-year 2025 guidance due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and the volatile macro-economic environment, which could be a factor to watch for future market movements.
• The decision to wind down its Hot Wheels Virtual Garage NFTs might have also impacted the stock positively, as it shows a strategic shift in focus towards core operations and away from potentially risky ventures.

05.00.2026 - MAT Stock was up 2.6%

• Despite falling short of earnings expectations, Mattel Inc. (MAT) has experienced a notable upward trend, supported by its franchise strategy and the continued popularity of brands such as Barbie.
• Analysts' careful optimism and the company's focus on licensing, entertainment, and AI-driven merchandising have contributed to the positive movement in its stock.
• The stock's potential for a near-term recovery, bolstered by key technical indicators and a prevailing bullish trend, reflects investor confidence in Mattel's ability to overcome challenges and seize growth opportunities.
• The market's reaction may stem from a reassessment of the company's future outlook, including consumer spending patterns, progress in its entertainment plans, and the integration of technology for enhanced predictability, despite the recent quarterly earnings shortfall.

15.09.2025 - MAT Stock was up 5.5%

• Despite expectations of a decline in Q3 earnings, Mattel's stock saw a strong bullish movement, indicating potential positive sentiment from investors.
• The partnership with MoMA showcasing a new design collaboration could have sparked investor interest and optimism in the company's future growth prospects.
• The market might be focusing more on the long-term strategic initiatives and partnerships of Mattel rather than short-term earnings fluctuations, driving the bullish movement in the stock today.

10.01.2026 - MAT Stock was up 5.2%

• The rise in Mattel's stock today is linked to the buzz surrounding the release of the new Hot Wheels Aston Martin Vantage GT3 building set. This 793-piece set, known for its real metal parts and customizable decals, has attracted considerable interest from collectors, boosting investor optimism about potential sales and revenue growth.
• Furthermore, the debut of the "Easy Connect" system for Thomas & Friends, intended to improve the play experience and lessen frustration for preschoolers, demonstrates Mattel's dedication to innovation and customer satisfaction. This upbeat development might have also bolstered the positive sentiment fueling the stock's rise.
• In general, Mattel's focus on product innovation and consumer involvement seems to be resonating positively with the market, driving up investor confidence and pushing the stock price higher.