Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Down 12.3% Today

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas is a widely used commodity for heating and electricity generation, with its prices being influenced by weather forecasts, supply-demand dynamics, and export flows.

Why is Natural Gas going down?

GAS commodity is down 12.3% on Feb 3, 2026 9:35

• Natural gas futures experienced a bearish movement due to warmer weather forecasts across the US, leading to reduced heating demand and lower consumption expectations.
• The recent collapse in prices was triggered by milder temperatures replacing the extreme cold snap, allowing for a quick rebound in gas output as frozen wells thawed.
• Despite the price decline, LNG export flows remained strong, limiting the extent of the fall in prices despite the improved supply situation.
• The market's volatility was evident in recent weeks, with prices surging to multi-year highs before the shift in weather forecasts and the return of production from frozen wells contributed to the significant drop in prices.

GAS Price Chart

GAS Technical Analysis

GAS News

US Natural Prices Steady After Historic Daily Drop

US natural gas futures hovered near $3.27/MMBtu after suffering a dramatic 25.7% collapse on Monday, the steepest one-day drop since 1995. The sharp reversal followed a major shift in weather expectations, with forecasts now pointing to much milder, near-normal temperatures across most of the US through mid-February. This change came after around ten days of extreme cold that had driven heating demand to unusually high levels. As temperatures rise, frozen wells are thawing, allowing gas output to rebound quickly. Daily output recently hit 111.6 bcfd, the strongest since January 20. Even so, the recent cold snap likely led to very heavy storage withdrawals, potentially pushing inventories from above seasonal norms to slightly below average by late January. Meanwhile, LNG export flows remain strong, near record levels, limiting how far prices may fall despite the improving supply picture.

US Natgas Prices Sink 21% as Warmer Forecasts Emerge

US natural gas futures plummeted 21% to $3.42 per million British thermal units, erasing Friday’s 11.3% surge, as near term weather forecasts shifted toward milder conditions and reduced demand expectations. Forecasts through mid month point to warmer than normal temperatures across large parts of the country, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is likely to curb heating and power generation demand. This outlook offset the impact of ongoing frigid conditions in the southern US, where cold weather has prompted power saving efforts. Prices have been highly volatile in recent weeks, with the February contract surging to a three year high before expiring last Wednesday on storm related production disruptions and strong heating demand. The March contract jumped again on Friday following mixed forecasts and a bullish government storage report.

US NatGas Plunges Amid Warmer Weather Outlook

US natural gas futures fell 14.7% to $3.70 per MMBtu on Monday, reversing significant gains from the previous week as forecasts of milder weather conditions across broad areas of the country threatened to curb heating demand. While pockets of the southern US remain cold, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects that widespread temperatures will remain above seasonal norms. This shift is expected to dampen demand for natural gas, which remains a critical source for both residential heating and electricity generation. The market has been exceptionally volatile in recent weeks, with February futures soared to a three-year high before expiring last Wednesday, while the March contract spiked again on Friday as traders weighed conflicting weather forecasts against strong government storage figures. Flows to liquefied natural gas export plants rose, boosted by the expected restart of a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG in Texas.

US Natgas Prices Climb on Rising LNG Flows

US natural gas futures rose 7% to $4.10 per MMBtu on Friday as flows to liquefied natural gas export plants increased, including the likely return of a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG in Texas. LNG feedgas was on track to rise for a fourth day in a row to 17.9 bcfd after dropping to a one-year low of 11.5 bcfd earlier this week due to winter storm disruptions. The price gain came despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the week, as well as a rebound in US output from frozen wells. Average production in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.2 bcfd in January, down from a record 109.7 bcfd in December, though daily output was rising for a fifth day to 105.7 bcfd after a two-year low of 92.5 bcfd on Sunday. Weather is expected to remain colder than normal through February 14. Futures were on track for a 14% gain in January following a 23% decline last month.

US Natgas Prices Little Changed on Friday

US natural gas futures were around $3.9/MMBtu as a larger than expected storage draw and stronger demand outlook offset still recovering production. The Energy Information Administration reported a 242 billion cubic feet withdrawal for the week to January 23, above forecasts and well above the five year average, after an Arctic blast boosted heating demand. Weather forecasts now point to colder than normal conditions through mid February, supporting consumption expectations even if temperatures are less extreme than late January. Production remains below recent highs, with average January output down from December records, although daily supply is gradually recovering as frozen wells return. Support also came from rising gas flows to LNG export plants after storm related disruptions earlier in the week. Some companies even imported gas into the US to take advantage of elevated prices, highlighting how tight market conditions remain despite the modest rebound in supply.

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Natural Gas Price History

26.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 5.4%

• Natural gas prices saw a significant pullback today after a series of record-breaking rallies in response to a historic winter storm sweeping across the US.
• The bearish movement could be attributed to traders reassessing their positions and profit-taking after the recent sharp price increases.
• Despite the pullback, the overall trend remains bullish due to the ongoing cold wave, disruptions in supply, and heightened heating demand, indicating potential volatility and further price fluctuations in the near term.

26.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 7.3%

• Natural gas prices surged above $7/MMBtu, marking a significant increase driven by a historic winter storm disrupting supply and increasing heating demand.
• The extreme cold weather in the US led to nearly 10% of natural gas production being knocked offline, while heating and power demand soared, pushing prices higher.
• With production disruptions and concerns about ice forming in pipelines, the market is closely monitoring how long these challenges will persist, potentially leading to further upside in prices.
• The rally in natural gas prices, with significant gains over the past week, reflects the impact of weather-related events on supply and demand dynamics, highlighting the volatility of commodity markets in response to external factors.

03.01.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 12.3%

• Natural gas futures experienced a bearish movement due to warmer weather forecasts across the US, leading to reduced heating demand and lower consumption expectations.
• The recent collapse in prices was triggered by milder temperatures replacing the extreme cold snap, allowing for a quick rebound in gas output as frozen wells thawed.
• Despite the price decline, LNG export flows remained strong, limiting the extent of the fall in prices despite the improved supply situation.
• The market's volatility was evident in recent weeks, with prices surging to multi-year highs before the shift in weather forecasts and the return of production from frozen wells contributed to the significant drop in prices.

27.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 13.2%

• Natural gas futures experienced a strong bearish movement today, dropping over 7% to $6.27 per MMBtu after a significant rally in the previous sessions.
• Warmer forecasts and the return of some frozen wells to service contributed to the price decline, as well as projections of slightly less severe cold in certain regions.
• Despite the pullback, supply risks remain elevated with ongoing weather-driven supply disruptions and power emergencies being declared in certain regions, highlighting the volatility and sensitivity of the natural gas market to external factors.
• The market will continue to monitor production disruptions and weather patterns closely, as prolonged outages could potentially lead to further price fluctuations in the future.

27.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 7.1%

• Natural gas futures surged over 17% to above $6 per MMBtu, reaching levels not seen since December 2022, driven by a severe winter storm disrupting supply and boosting heating demand.
• The extreme cold weather knocked offline nearly 10% of US natural gas production, leading to concerns about prolonged production disruptions and further price increases.
• Despite the significant rally, prices pulled back slightly as traders took profits, highlighting the volatility in the market influenced by ongoing weather-driven supply disruptions and elevated supply risks.
• The market remains focused on how long production outages will last, with authorities taking measures to ensure adequate natural gas supplies for residential heating and power generation amidst the frigid conditions.

23.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 5.3%

• The bearish movement in Natural Gas prices today can be attributed to profit-taking and traders reassessing their positions after a historic rally driven by extreme weather conditions and supply risks:
• Prices surged to record levels due to forecasts of a severe winter storm and below-normal temperatures, leading to increased heating demand and concerns about production disruptions.
• Despite a significant drawdown in inventories and production declines linked to freeze-offs, the market experienced a pullback as traders adjusted their positions ahead of the anticipated cold snap.
• The sharp increase in prices over the past week, with gains of over 65%, prompted some investors to take profits, causing a temporary retreat in prices despite the ongoing weather-related bullish sentiment.
• Natural Gas prices hitting a 3-year high and experiencing substantial gains in a short period reflect the market's sensitivity to weather forecasts and supply risks, highlighting the volatility and speculative nature of the commodity market.

28.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 7.2%

• Natural gas futures experienced a bearish movement due to warmer weather forecasts and the return of some frozen wells, easing supply concerns.
• The unexpected rally in prices over the previous sessions led traders to take profits despite ongoing weather-driven supply disruptions, causing a significant pullback in prices.
• The increase in output in the Lower 48 and the recovery of LNG feedgas flows contributed to the market movement, indicating improving supply conditions.
• Despite the price decrease, freezing temperatures across the US continue to impact natural gas production and supply, highlighting the ongoing supply risks in the market.

30.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 14.1%

• Natural gas prices surged by 5.04% to $3.92 per MMBtu, driven by a combination of factors:
• 1. Increased flows to LNG export plants, including the return of a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG in Texas, boosting demand and tightening market conditions.
• 2. Despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand, colder than normal conditions expected through mid-February supported consumption expectations.
• 3. The market reacted positively to a larger than expected storage draw, stronger demand outlook, and recovering production levels, highlighting the ongoing tightness in supply despite the rebound in output from frozen wells.
• 4. The volatility in price action was influenced by mixed weather forecasts and the market's sensitivity following a historic weather-driven rally, keeping traders on edge and contributing to the bullish movement in natural gas prices.

30.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 5.1%

• The bullish movement in Natural Gas prices was primarily driven by a larger than expected storage draw and a stronger demand outlook, fueled by an Arctic blast that boosted heating demand.
• Colder than normal weather forecasts through mid-February supported consumption expectations, despite some fluctuations in temperature predictions causing uncertainty in demand.
• The return of some frozen wells and the gradual recovery of gas production after storm-related disruptions contributed to easing supply concerns, leading to a slight pullback in prices on days with warmer weather forecasts.
• The market's sensitivity post a historic weather-driven rally, coupled with the tight market conditions despite the modest rebound in supply, kept price action volatile, with traders closely monitoring weather patterns and production levels for further price movements.

02.01.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 6.6%

• Natural gas prices plunged due to forecasts of milder weather conditions across the US, dampening heating demand and leading to a 14.7% drop to $3.70 per MMBtu.
• The bearish movement was further influenced by the expectation of above-seasonal temperatures, which reduced the need for natural gas as a heating source.
• Despite the recent price drop, the market had been experiencing volatility with conflicting weather forecasts, strong government storage figures, and fluctuations in LNG export flows impacting prices.
• The market movement showcases how sensitive natural gas prices are to weather forecasts and demand outlook, highlighting the importance of monitoring these factors for trading decisions.

02.01.2026 - GAS Commodity was down 13.4%

• Natural gas futures faced downward pressure due to forecasts of milder weather conditions across the US, resulting in decreased heating demand.
• Anticipated above-normal temperatures are projected to lower the necessity for natural gas in residential heating and power production.
• Despite the market's bearish trend, tight conditions persist as gas flows to LNG export facilities increase and companies import gas to capitalize on higher prices, highlighting ongoing market challenges amidst recovering production levels.

26.00.2026 - GAS Commodity was up 5.5%

• Natural gas futures surged over 15% to above $6 per MMBtu, reaching levels not seen since December 2022, as a historic winter storm disrupted supply and sharply boosted heating demand.
• The severe weather conditions knocked offline close to 10% of US gas production, leading to concerns about prolonged production disruptions and potential further upside in prices.
• Gas flows to US LNG export plants fell to the lowest level in a year, highlighting the impact of the weather-driven rally on both domestic consumption and international exports.
• With forecasts projecting below-normal temperatures and increased heating demand, coupled with production challenges due to freezing conditions, the market remains focused on the duration of production outages and the potential for continued price increases.