Natural Gas ($GAS) Commodity Forecast: Down 5.0% Today

What is Natural Gas?

Natural Gas is a widely used commodity for heating and electricity generation. The market movement today was bearish, with prices experiencing a decline.

Why is Natural Gas going down?

GAS commodity is down 5.0% on Aug 4, 2025 16:40

• Natural gas futures fell due to oversupply concerns and mild weather forecasts, leading to a second consecutive week of losses.
• Rising production outpacing demand, coupled with cooler temperatures reducing power sector demand for gas, contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
• Traders are keeping an eye on hotter weather expected later in August, which could potentially boost air-conditioning use and revive gas demand, offering a glimmer of hope for a market rebound.
• Geopolitical tensions and agreements affecting energy products also played a role in influencing market sentiment, albeit supply remaining strong with record average output in the Lower 48 states.

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US Natgas Prices Fall on Monday

US natural gas futures fell toward $3.05/MMBtu, approaching their lowest since April 22, as production outpaces demand. LSEG reported average output in the Lower 48 states hit 107.5 bcfd in July, exceeding June’s record of 106.4 bcfd. Rising supply coincides with near-term forecasts for cooler temperatures, weighing on power sector demand for gas. As a result, the latest EIA data showed a larger-than-expected 48 bcf injection into storage in the week ending July 25, surpassing forecasts of 38 bcf. However, traders are watching for hotter weather later in August, which could boost air-conditioning use and revive gas demand.

US Natgas Prices Poised for Second Weekly Decline

US natural gas futures traded around $3.11/MMBtu on Friday, on course for a second consecutive week of losses, pressured by oversupply concerns and mild weather forecasts. The latest EIA data showed a larger-than-expected 48 bcf injection into storage last week, surpassing forecasts of 38 bcf. In July, gas prices fell 10%, ending a two-month rise, as production outpaces demand. LSEG reported average output in the Lower 48 states hit 107.5 bcfd in July, exceeding June’s record of 106.4 bcfd. Rising supply coincides with near-term forecasts for cooler temperatures, weighing on power sector demand for gas. However, traders are watching for hotter weather later in August, which could boost air-conditioning use and revive gas demand.

US Natgas Prices Down 12% in July

US natural gas futures hovered near $3.03/MMBtu on Thursday, their lowest since April 22, pressured by oversupply concerns and mild weather forecasts. The latest EIA data showed a larger-than-expected 48 bcf injection into storage last week, surpassing forecasts of 38 bcf. For July, gas prices are down over 12%, ending a two-month rise, as production outpaces demand. LSEG reported average output in the Lower 48 states hit 107.5 bcfd in July, exceeding June’s record of 106.4 bcfd. Rising supply coincides with near-term forecasts for cooler temperatures, weighing on power sector demand for gas. However, traders are watching for hotter weather later in August, which could boost air-conditioning use and revive gas demand.

US Natgas Prices Fall to Over 3-Month Low

US natural gas futures fell to $3.02/MMBtu, the lowest since April 22, pressured by rising supply and weaker near-term demand. According to LSEG, average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 107.5 billion cubic feet per day in July, topping June’s record of 106.4 bcfd. The surge in production comes as forecasts point to cooler near-term temperatures, which could reduce power sector gas use for air conditioning. Weaker power burn and faltering demand expectations have weighed heavily on sentiment. However, the market is eyeing hotter weather further into August, which may revive air-conditioning demand and lift gas consumption by utilities. Some heat is beginning to appear in the 11–15 day outlooks, which could give bulls hope of a rebound. Additionally, liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand has been soft recently but could strengthen, offering further support if international buyers return.

US Natgas Prices Rise from 10-Week Low

US natural gas futures rose to $3.16/MMBtu, rebounding from a ten-week low of $3.066 in the previous session, as forecasts for extreme August heat lifted demand expectations. Meteorologists expect hotter-than-normal temperatures across much of the US, particularly in the Southeast, mid-South, and Midwest, driving increased use of air conditioning and boosting power sector gas consumption. Geopolitical tensions also added support, after President Trump shortened the timeline for Russia to agree to a Ukraine ceasefire, raising the risk of further sanctions on Russian energy exports. Additionally, a new US-EU agreement includes a pledge from the EU to spend $750 billion on US energy products, including gas. Still, supply remains strong, with average output in the Lower 48 reaching 107.5 bcfd in July, above June’s record. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes announced a $13.6 billion deal to acquire Chart Industries, outbidding Flowserve and signaling continued consolidation in the oil and gas sector.

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Natural Gas Price History

23.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.2%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement today, dropping by 5% to $3.8807 USD/MMBtu.
• The decline in prices can be attributed to the market reacting to US natural gas futures trading around $3.9/MMBtu after a recent rise, as well as concerns over potential LNG supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.
• Despite the drop, natural gas prices had been on track for a 10% weekly gain, driven by forecasts of a major heatwave across the US increasing demand for air conditioning and power generation.
• The request for a 40-month extension by Freeport LNG to complete its Train 4 expansion may have also contributed to market uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment and leading to the bearish movement in prices.

23.06.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Natural gas futures experienced a bearish movement today due to:
• Forecasts for milder weather reducing near-term cooling demand.
• Near-record output levels and strong storage injections contributing to oversupply concerns.
• Lower demand outlook as production hit new records, allowing for significant injections into storage.
• Despite hot weather and high demand for cooling, the market was pressured by the abundance of supply and export trends.

23.06.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.3%

• Natural gas prices fell to a 3-month low due to near-record output and forecasts for milder weather, reducing cooling demand and increasing storage injections.
• The bearish movement was also influenced by strong production levels, surpassing previous records, leading to higher storage injections and increased stockpiles.
• Despite hotter-than-normal temperatures, the revised forecast showing less intense heat contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
• The increase in gas flows to US LNG export facilities and rising output levels further added to the bearish sentiment in the market, pushing prices lower towards a 2-week low.

09.06.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 6.0%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement, dropping to a 6-week low.
• The decrease in prices can be attributed to rising supply levels, strong storage levels, and above-average weekly builds.
• Despite strong demand driven by hotter-than-normal weather and increased LNG exports, the surplus in storage and higher output contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
• Geopolitical tensions, uncertainties around tropical storm activity, and concerns about winter supply also added volatility to the market, influencing the bearish movement of natural gas prices.

30.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.3%

• Natural gas futures experienced a bearish movement today, dropping to a 5-week low.
• The market movement can be attributed to rising production levels, larger-than-expected storage builds, and a decline in gas flows to US LNG export terminals.
• Despite forecasts for continued hot weather, the easing of extreme temperatures and increased supply have put downward pressure on prices.
• The recent trend of above-average storage injections and the overall bearish sentiment in the market have contributed to the decline in natural gas prices.

04.07.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

• Natural gas futures fell due to oversupply concerns and mild weather forecasts, leading to a second consecutive week of losses.
• Rising production outpacing demand, coupled with cooler temperatures reducing power sector demand for gas, contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
• Traders are keeping an eye on hotter weather expected later in August, which could potentially boost air-conditioning use and revive gas demand, offering a glimmer of hope for a market rebound.
• Geopolitical tensions and agreements affecting energy products also played a role in influencing market sentiment, albeit supply remaining strong with record average output in the Lower 48 states.

26.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 6.0%

• Natural gas prices experienced a bearish movement due to:
• Rising production levels and forecasts for an easing heat wave, leading to decreased demand.
• Decrease in gas flows to US LNG export plants due to seasonal maintenance.
• Market concerns easing with a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran, reducing tensions in the energy-rich Middle East.
• Geopolitical tensions and extreme weather conditions, such as the anticipation of Iran's response to Washington's strike on its nuclear sites, also contributed to the market volatility.
• The overall market sentiment was impacted by the combination of increased production levels, reduced demand due to weather forecasts, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a significant drop in natural gas prices.

26.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 8.2%

• Natural gas prices fell to a 5-week low of $3.42/MMBtu due to rising production and a larger-than-expected storage build, leading to ample supply in the market.
• Despite forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather, temperatures are expected to ease, reducing demand for natural gas for cooling purposes.
• Gas flows to US LNG export terminals have declined, contributing to the overall bearish sentiment in the market.
• Geopolitical tensions and extreme weather conditions are also impacting natural gas prices, with traders monitoring Iran's response to Washington's actions and the potential for supply disruptions.

03.06.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 5.1%

• Hotter mid-July forecasts boosted Natural Gas prices due to expected higher air-conditioning demand.
• A smaller-than-expected inventory build and concerns over winter supply, particularly for January contracts, contributed to the bullish sentiment.
• Geopolitical factors like US sanctions on Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project and uncertainties around tropical storm activity added to market volatility and upward pressure on prices.
• Decreased gas output, warmer weather leading to higher demand projections, and reduced LNG exports tightened supply, supporting overall market sentiment.

27.05.2025 - GAS Commodity was up 7.4%

• Natural gas prices surged by about 5% to $3.7/MMBtu, breaking a five-day losing streak, as LNG export activity picked up and forecasts predicted hotter-than-normal weather across the US.
• The increase in gas flows to LNG plants and expectations of reduced injections into storage due to higher power generation demand during the recent heat wave contributed to the bullish movement in natural gas prices.
• Despite the recent price increase, the market remains cautious as rising production levels and forecasts of easing heat wave conditions could put pressure on prices in the near future.
• Overall, the bullish movement in natural gas prices today was primarily driven by a combination of improved export activity, weather forecasts, and changes in storage injections, indicating a delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics in the market.

31.06.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.1%

• Natural gas prices fell to a 3-month low due to rising supply and weaker near-term demand, driven by cooler temperatures reducing air conditioning usage.
• Despite the recent decline, the market is hopeful for a rebound with hotter weather forecasts in August potentially increasing air-conditioning demand.
• Geopolitical tensions and a new US-EU energy agreement added some support to prices, but the strong supply levels continue to weigh on the market sentiment.
• The halt in the sharp decline was attributed to short covering and lower-than-expected weekly storage additions, indicating some stabilization in prices amidst ample production levels and soft summer demand forecasts.

22.06.2025 - GAS Commodity was down 5.0%

• Natural gas futures dropped over 5% due to strong supply and a softer demand outlook, with production at a new record level and high gas inventories.
• Despite hovering at a 3-week high previously, prices fell as cooling demand eased and supply remained robust.
• The extreme heat across the US had initially boosted demand, but as forecasts showed a slight easing in demand, prices saw a 1% increase, reaching a two-week high.
• Overall, the bearish movement can be attributed to a combination of factors including supply outpacing demand, easing cooling needs, and fluctuations in LNG exports and production levels.