Gold ($XAU) Commodity Forecast: Up 1.0% Today

What is Gold?

Gold, a popular commodity known for its safe-haven status, experienced a strong bullish movement today amidst ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainties.

Why is Gold going up?

XAU commodity is up 1.0% on Jul 16, 2025 15:26

• Gold prices edged higher to around $3,330 per ounce as investors assessed a pick-up in US inflation and ongoing trade developments, including tariff announcements on various countries.
• The uncertainty surrounding US economic policy and trade tensions continued to support gold prices, with central banks increasing their gold reserves amid the volatility in global markets.
• Tariff measures, such as the 30% duty on imports from the EU and Mexico, along with calls for rate cuts, added to the market volatility and boosted demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• The World Gold Council reported net central bank gold purchases, further highlighting the ongoing interest in gold as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

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Gold Edges Higher

Gold prices edged up to around $3,330 per ounce on Wednesday, following a two-day decline, as investors assessed a pick-up in US inflation and ongoing trade developments. June CPI rose at the fastest pace in five months, suggesting tariffs may be starting to have an impact on inflationary pressures. President Trump called for rate cuts, but Fed officials signaled caution, citing inflation risks. Markets now await the PPI report for further insight. Meanwhile, trade concerns lingered after Trump announced a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods and said additional tariff notices would be sent to smaller countries. He had earlier threatened 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the EU starting August 1 but later signaled openness to talks. Separately, the World Gold Council reported net central bank gold purchases of 20 tonnes in May, led by Kazakhstan, Turkey, Poland, and Singapore. China also extended its buying streak in June, lifting total purchases since November to 34.2 tonnes.

Gold Holds Strong Momentum

Gold prices hovered around $3,350 per ounce on Tuesday, trimming gains from earlier in the session but holding its strong momentum since retesting record highs throughout the second quarter amid uncertainty from tariffs and strong central bank buying. US President Trump sent notified 25 countries of new tariff rates set to take effect on August 1st, including major trading partners Canada, Mexico, and the EU, while making a political appeal by tariffing Brazil. Uncertainty regarding US economic policy continued to hamper the US dollar, driving central banks to increase their gold reserves instead of piling into the usual Treasury securities. Surveys from showed that central banks added a net 20 tonnes of gold in May, lead by monetary authorities in Kazakhstan, Turkey, Poland, and Singapore. Meanwhile, bets of a rate hold by the Fed this month consolidated as US headline inflation rose to 2.7% in June, as expected, while markets continued to price two rate cuts this year.

Gold Edges Higher

Gold prices rose near $3,350 per ounce on Tuesday, following a modest drop in the prior session, with investor focus remaining on US trade policy. President Donald Trump has so far sent letters to the leaders of 25 countries, notifying them of new tariff rates set to take effect on August 1. The latest measures include a 30% duty on imports from major partners the EU and Mexico. Trump also warned that countries retaliating with their own tariff hikes could face even steeper US duties. Still, he signaled openness to further negotiations with trading partners before the new tariffs kick in. Meanwhile, Trump on Monday renewed his attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, saying interest rates should be at 1% or lower. Markets are currently pricing in 50bps of rate cuts by year-end, with the first reduction expected in September. Investors now await the US CPI report, due later today, for more clues into the Fed's rate path.

Gold Pares Gains After Touching 3-Week Highs

Gold prices trimmed early gains to trade flat around $3,360 an ounce on Monday, as persistent trade uncertainty continued to weigh on market sentiment. US President Trump announced a new 30% tariff on imports from the European Union and Mexico, set to take effect on August 1. The move follows last week's broader tariff package targeting over 20 countries, including Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Brazil, and includes a steep 50% duty on copper imports. While some investors believe these tariffs may be softened through negotiations, the ongoing trade tensions are adding to overall market volatility. Meanwhile, traders are closely monitoring a series of key Us economic reports due this week—including CPI, PPI, industrial production, and retail sales—for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

Gold Hovers Near 3-Week High

Gold prices hovered around $3,350 per ounce on Monday, near a three-week high, supported by demand for safe-haven assets following President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs. In letters to the EU and Mexico, Trump set a 30% tariff on both, citing their trade deficits with the US as a “major threat” to national security. Both the EU and Mexico described the tariffs unfair and disruptive, while the EU said it would extend its suspension of countermeasures to US tariffs until early August and continue to push for a negotiated settlement. The move follows a broader set of tariff hikes unveiled last week, targeting over 20 countries—including Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Brazil—as well as a 50% duty on copper imports. The new measures are set to take effect on August 1. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching key US economic reports this week—including CPI, PPI, industrial production, and retail sales—for clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision.

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Gold Price History

21.05.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 0.8%

• Gold prices fell today despite recent upward momentum, as investors awaited further cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.
• The anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Fed was reinforced by soft US economic data, including weak retail sales and a slowdown in the labor market.
• Higher US Treasury yields and tepid gold demand in key markets like India and China also contributed to the downward pressure on Gold prices.
• The market movement suggests that investors are closely monitoring economic indicators and Fed officials' statements to assess the timing and extent of potential rate cuts, impacting the demand for safe-haven assets like Gold.

03.03.2025 - XAU Commodity was down 0.3%

• Gold prices dropped significantly by more than 3% from a record high above $3,160 per ounce due to the decision to exempt precious metals from tariffs, leading to a bearish market sentiment.
• Despite the decline, concerns about the tariffs' impact on global inflation and growth, coupled with expectations of rate cuts and strong demand for gold-backed ETFs, helped mitigate the losses, showcasing the metal's resilience in volatile times.
• The market movement was also influenced by tariff announcements, outlining baseline tariffs and higher rates for countries like China, the EU, and Japan, as investors awaited the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for further insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction.
• Overall, the bearish movement in gold today can be attributed to a combination of factors, including trade tensions, economic uncertainties, and market reactions to geopolitical events, highlighting the metal's sensitivity to global developments.

23.03.2025 - XAU Commodity was down 5.2%

• Gold prices retreated from record highs as optimism surrounding US-China trade tensions and reduced concerns about Federal Reserve independence weakened the metal's safe-haven appeal.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments on a potential de-escalation in the trade conflict with China and President Trump's backing away from threats to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell contributed to the decline in gold prices.
• The improved overall sentiment and the slight pullback in assets benefiting from safety demand led to a decrease in gold prices, despite the metal still being up roughly 30% year-to-date.
• President Trump's remarks on Fed Chair Powell, ongoing global trade tensions, and fears of political interference in monetary policy have added to the uncertainty, driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold.

18.08.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 0.3%

• Gold's bearish movement today can be attributed to profit-taking by investors after the recent surge in prices to record highs.
• The Federal Reserve's unexpected jumbo rate cut and updated economic forecasts may have led to a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets, impacting the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• The ongoing market uncertainty, including political events and central bank decisions, could have also contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices as investors reassess their portfolios.
• Despite today's bearish movement, the long-term bullish trend in gold, driven by factors such as a weaker dollar and lower bond yields, remains intact, indicating potential buying opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on future price increases.

06.10.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 1.2%

• Gold prices fell due to concerns over the US election outcome and the potential impact of a Trump presidency on inflation, leading investors to turn away from the precious metal.
• Anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut to bolster the economy was not enough to offset the negative pressure on gold.
• Investor wariness towards safe-haven assets like gold was evident, given positive economic indicators and the resilience of the US economy, which diminished the immediate necessity for hedging against inflation risks.
• Today's dip in gold prices stemmed from a mix of factors, including election uncertainty, monetary policy projections, and changing perceptions of economic stability.

25.01.2025 - XAU Commodity was down 1.7%

• Gold prices fell below $2,950 per ounce despite holding near record highs, as concerns over President Trump's tariff policies continued to weigh on the market sentiment.
• The escalating trade tensions, coupled with fears of inflationary risks due to tariff announcements on various imports, led investors to reevaluate their positions in gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
• Despite the bullish trend in recent weeks, the bearish movement today may indicate a temporary pullback as investors await further clarity on the Fed's monetary policy stance and the impact of geopolitical events on the global economy.
• The upcoming PCE report and market reactions to Trump's tariff measures will likely play a crucial role in shaping gold's future price movements, as investors navigate through volatile market conditions seeking safe-haven assets.

16.06.2025 - XAU Commodity was up 1.0%

• Gold prices edged higher to around $3,330 per ounce as investors assessed a pick-up in US inflation and ongoing trade developments, including tariff announcements on various countries.
• The uncertainty surrounding US economic policy and trade tensions continued to support gold prices, with central banks increasing their gold reserves amid the volatility in global markets.
• Tariff measures, such as the 30% duty on imports from the EU and Mexico, along with calls for rate cuts, added to the market volatility and boosted demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• The World Gold Council reported net central bank gold purchases, further highlighting the ongoing interest in gold as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

29.01.2024 - XAU Commodity was up 0.5%

• Gold prices rose as investors anticipated the release of the US PCE inflation report, which could impact Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and consequently elevate gold's attractiveness as an inflation hedge.
• Factors such as lower yields and expectations of monetary stimulus also contributed to the positive trend in gold prices, especially amidst uncertainties regarding the timing and scale of rate adjustments by the Fed.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated safe-haven demand for gold as Houthi militants took credit for attacks on commercial ships, bolstering the metal's upward movement.
• Despite some periods of subdued trading, overall market sentiment regarding gold remained optimistic, steered by a mix of economic reports, central bank communications, and global uncertainties that collectively influenced today's bullish market performance.

01.02.2024 - XAU Commodity was up 0.8%

• Gold surged to a 4-week high of $2051.00 USD/t.oz, benefiting from the latest US inflation data that reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
• The solidification of investors' beliefs in the Fed's accommodative stance, particularly after the PCE data release, bolstered Gold's appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainties.
• With markets pricing in a high probability of a Fed rate cut in June and no hikes expected in the near term, the outlook for Gold remains positive as investors seek refuge in the precious metal.
• Lower yields and the prospect of monetary easing further supported Gold's upward trajectory, making it an attractive asset in the current economic landscape.

20.02.2024 - XAU Commodity was up 1.1%

• Gold prices surged as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, with expectations of interest rates remaining unchanged leading to increased confidence in the precious metal.
• Strong US inflation data and the anticipation of monetary easing in the future contributed to the bullish movement in gold prices.
• The Bank of Japan's decision to end its negative rate policy and the Reserve Bank of Australia's steady rates also played a role in boosting gold prices as investors sought safe haven assets amidst global economic uncertainties.
• Overall, the bullish movement in gold can be attributed to a combination of factors including central bank policies, economic data releases, and geopolitical tensions, all of which favored the appeal of the precious metal as a store of value.

13.01.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 0.4%

• The downward movement in the gold market today can be attributed to the following factors:
• 1. US Inflation Test: Concerns arose among investors ahead of a significant US inflation reading that may affect interest rate expectations. Positive US jobs data and statements from Federal Reserve officials raised fears of potential rate cut delays, leading to a decline in gold prices.
• 2. Strong Dollar and Treasury Yields: Gold faced pressure from a strong dollar and increasing Treasury yields, reducing its appeal as an alternative investment. Positive US jobs data and comments from Fed officials dampened expectations of rate cuts, further impacting gold sentiment.
• 3. Geopolitical Developments: Investors closely monitored geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly tensions between Israel and Hamas. While gold typically benefits from safe-haven demand, these factors failed to uplift the metal amidst other bearish influences.
• 4. Reassessing Monetary Policy Prospects: Economic data and remarks from central bankers, including officials from the European Central Bank (ECB), prompted investors to reevaluate their expectations for monetary policy. A gradual decrease in price pressures and cautious statements from Fed officials diminished expectations of rate cuts, thus affecting gold prices.
• Overall, the downward movement in the gold market today can be attributed to concerns about interest rates, a strong dollar, geopolitical tensions, and the reassessment of monetary policy prospects.

02.07.2024 - XAU Commodity was down 1.1%

• Gold prices dropped significantly today, despite recent record highs, as investors may have taken profits following the surge in prices.
• The bearish movement could also be attributed to the easing of tensions in the Middle East, reducing the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• The anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut may have influenced the market sentiment, leading to profit-taking in gold after the recent bullish rally.
• Overall, the combination of profit-taking, reduced geopolitical tensions, and market expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy decisions likely contributed to the bearish movement in the gold market today.