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Heating Oil ($HEATOIL) Commodity Forecast: Up 5.4% Today

Morpher AI identified a bullish signal. The commodity price may continue to rise based on the momentum of the good news.

What is Heating Oil?

Heating oil futures have experienced a volatile trading day, with significant price movements driven by various supply and demand factors in the energy market.

Why is Heating Oil going up?

HEATOIL commodity is up 5.4% on Jul 18, 2025 13:41

  • The surge in heating oil prices to near one-month highs can be attributed to a combination of factors such as warfare in the Middle East, tight supplies, solid demand, and output disruptions in Iraqi Kurdistan and EU sanctions on Russian oil, creating a bullish sentiment in the market.
  • Conversely, the drop in heating oil prices to a monthly low was influenced by softer consumption signals, renewed trade-war concerns, a surprise build in distillate inventories in the US, and President Trump's tariff threats on EU and Mexican goods, leading to a bearish market movement.
  • The upward momentum in heating oil prices, hovering at two-week highs, was driven by rising crude feedstock costs, refining margins, and distillate values, as well as ongoing refinery maintenance and disruptions in bunker fuel flows to Europe, supporting the bullish trend in the market.

HEATOIL Price Chart

HEATOIL Technical Analysis

HEATOIL News

Heating Oil Surges to Near 1-Month High

Heating oil futures surged above $2.50 per gallon, reaching near one-month highs as warfare in the Middle East compounded with already tight supplies amid solid demand. In the US, distillate stocks plunged by 4.1 million barrels in the week to June 20th, leaving inventories well below year-ago levels despite refiners operating at 94–95% of capacity, while summer fuel demand has surged to multi-year peaks and record distillate exports have further drained domestic buffers. Globally, output disruptions from drone attacks in Iraqi Kurdistan, cutting some 140–150 kb/d of crude, and new EU sanctions on Russian oil have tightened Atlantic basin supplies. Meanwhile, Egypt’s 65% year-on-year jump in diesel imports is diverting cargoes away from northwest Europe. Against a backdrop of crude oil lingering in the high-$60s per barrel and heightened geopolitical risk, any incremental diesel or heating-oil demand must contend with very thin stocks, driving prices sharply higher.

0 Missing News Article Image Heating Oil Surges to Near 1-Month High

Heating Oil Drops to Monthly Low

Heating oil futures fell toward $2.36 per gallon, marking a monthly low as a mix of softer consumption signals and renewed trade-war concerns tipped the supply/demand balance toward ample stocks. In the US, EIA data showed a surprise build in distillate inventories of nearly 4.2 million barrels last week, suggesting that seasonal off-peak demand has yet to soak up summer production. At the same time, President Trump’s threat of 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican goods, following existing duties on Canadian energy products, has injected fresh doubt into global economic growth forecasts, raising the specter that fuel consumption could slow if trade barriers choke industrial activity. Although OPEC raised its second-half demand outlook, citing strength in Brazil, China and India, refiners in China have favored gasoline and diesel output over middle distillates, leaving heating oil more exposed.

1 Missing News Article Image Heating Oil Drops to Monthly Low

Heating Oil Hovers at 2-Week Highs

Heating oil futures climbed to around $2.44 per gallon in July, hovering at two-week highs as rising crude feedstock costs lifted refining margins and supported distillate values. Refiners, grappling with tighter sweet–sweet differentials and elevated run rates to meet peak summer transport and power-generation demand, have passed higher input costs through to heating oil prices. While the IEA warns of a potential surplus later this year and OPEC+ retains capacity to ramp output, current dynamics, marked by firm near-term demand and stronger crude benchmarks, continue to lift prices. Additional upward pressure stems from ongoing refinery maintenance that has sidelined roughly 500,000 barrels per day of distillation capacity on the US East Coast, tightening middle-distillate availability even as refiners favor gasoline production. Further compounding supply constraints, Houthi-linked attacks in the Red Sea have disrupted bunker fuel flows to Europe, amplifying cargo premiums.

2 Missing News Article Image Heating Oil Hovers at 2-Week Highs

Heating Oil Price History

30.04.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 2.7%

  • Heating Oil futures fell to a 3-week low of $2.05 per gallon due to expectations of ample crude oil availability, reducing feedstock costs for distillate fuel producers.
  • OPEC+ members are anticipated to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in July, despite uncertainties in the economic landscape and weakened Chinese demand affecting oil consumption.
  • Although distillate fuel stocks unexpectedly decreased, distillate fuel production saw a consecutive weekly rise, contributing to the bearish movement in Heating Oil prices.

30.03.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 5.4%

  • 1. The bearish movement in Heating Oil prices can be attributed to the overall downward pressure from falling feedstock costs amidst uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations.
  • 2. The potential for oversupply in the market, exacerbated by hints of increased output from OPEC+ members and defiance of production rules by countries like Kazakhstan, has further weighed on prices.
  • 3. The looming possibility of additional Iranian oil entering the market due to potential easing of nuclear sanctions adds to the bearish sentiment, as reflected in the sharp decline in Heating Oil futures.

24.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 9.6%

  • The ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran reduced fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East, leading to a drop in crude oil prices and subsequently pressuring heating oil futures.
  • Refining margins narrowed due to ample inventories and softening summer demand, while cooler-than-expected temperatures in key northeastern US markets further limited near-term consumption of heating oil.
  • Despite threats of potential disruptions in the Persian Gulf, the continued transit of oil tankers and rising Iranian oil exports contributed to the downward pressure on heating oil prices.
  • Forecasts of a major US heat wave and high demand for refined fuel products like diesel and marine fuel could tighten the market, but the current geopolitical situation and supply dynamics are keeping speculative interest high and preventing a significant decline in heating oil prices.

13.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 2.7%

  • Heating Oil prices reached a 10-week peak of $2.20 per gallon driven by limited crude supplies, reduced trade tensions, and robust seasonal demand outlook.
  • Uncertainty arose in the market due to President Trump's statements on tariffs and trade discussions with China, impacting energy product demand.
  • Despite the price surge, growth in distillate and heating oil inventories moderated it, suggesting some downward pressure on prices amid an overall positive market sentiment.
  • The bullish trend in Heating Oil is mainly due to supply constraints, trade dynamics, and seasonal demand, albeit partially offset by inventory builds.

13.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 6.9%

  • Heating oil prices surged to multi-month highs as Middle East tensions escalated, leading to concerns about potential supply disruptions and increased demand for the commodity.
  • Conversely, prices retreated from recent highs amid trade uncertainties and ample distillate inventories, dampening market sentiment and putting downward pressure on prices.
  • A combination of tightening crude supplies, easing trade frictions, and strong seasonal demand expectations pushed prices to a 10-month high, despite the surge in distillate inventories tempering the rally.
  • Overall, the bullish movement in heating oil prices today can be attributed to a mix of geopolitical events, trade developments, supply dynamics, and seasonal demand outlook, showcasing the complexity of factors influencing commodity markets.

17.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.0%

  • Heating oil futures reached a 10-month high of around $2.20 per gallon due to tightening crude supplies, easing trade frictions, and firm seasonal demand expectations.
  • Optimism in geopolitical relations, particularly between the US and China, contributed to hopes for increased global oil consumption.
  • However, despite the bullish movement, swelling distillate inventories and a significant build in heating oil stocks hinted at potential downward pressure on prices in the near future.

17.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 6.7%

  • Today's bullish movement in heating oil prices was driven by escalating Middle East tensions, with geopolitical unrest causing concerns about potential supply disruptions.
  • The unexpected increase in distillate inventories, including a significant rise in heating oil stocks, added downward pressure on prices despite the geopolitical uncertainty, as ample supply levels weighed on the market sentiment.
  • The warmer-than-usual weather forecast leading to reduced heating oil demand also contributed to the pullback in prices.
  • Overall, the combination of geopolitical tensions, supply build-up, and demand outlooks influenced today's market movement in heating oil, highlighting the complex interplay of factors shaping commodity prices.

23.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 13.4%

  • Today, heating oil experienced a strong bearish movement, dropping from a recent high of $2.60 per gallon.
  • The bearish trend in heating oil prices can be attributed to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the US and Iran, which has reduced fears of supply disruptions in the region.
  • Additionally, ample inventories, softening summer demand, and forecasts of cooler temperatures in key northeastern US markets have also contributed to the downward pressure on heating oil prices.
  • The overall market sentiment seems to have shifted towards a more relaxed stance, with traders focusing on factors such as supply levels, demand outlook, and geopolitical developments to gauge future price movements in the heating oil market.

23.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 9.8%

  • Despite tensions escalating in the Middle East, especially involving the US, Israel, and Iran, immediate supply disruptions have not occurred, easing worries of a significant oil shortage and leading to a decrease in heating oil prices.
  • The reduction in US crude inventories, alongside a strong demand for diesel, marine fuel, and summer-grade products, has helped heating oil prices. However, this has not fully balanced the overall market sentiment.
  • President Trump's announcement of postponing US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict has eased concerns temporarily, contributing to the decline in heating oil futures.
  • The increase in heating oil prices to a 14-month peak was mainly caused by a squeeze in distillate supplies, growing costs of crude-oil feedstock, and increasing geopolitical risks, indicating the volatile nature of the commodity market.

18.06.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.3%

  • The bullish movement in heating oil prices today can be attributed to a combination of factors:
  • Softening consumption signals and concerns over trade wars have tipped the supply/demand balance towards ample stocks, leading to a drop in prices.
  • President Trump's threat of imposing tariffs on EU and Mexican goods, along with existing duties on Canadian energy products, has injected uncertainty into global economic growth forecasts, potentially slowing fuel consumption.
  • Refiners in China favoring gasoline and diesel output over middle distillates have left heating oil more exposed, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
  • On the other hand, the bullish movement can also be linked to rising crude feedstock costs lifting refining margins and supporting distillate values, leading to higher heating oil prices.

18.06.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.4%

  • The surge in heating oil prices to near one-month highs can be attributed to a combination of factors such as warfare in the Middle East, tight supplies, solid demand, and output disruptions in Iraqi Kurdistan and EU sanctions on Russian oil, creating a bullish sentiment in the market.
  • Conversely, the drop in heating oil prices to a monthly low was influenced by softer consumption signals, renewed trade-war concerns, a surprise build in distillate inventories in the US, and President Trump's tariff threats on EU and Mexican goods, leading to a bearish market movement.
  • The upward momentum in heating oil prices, hovering at two-week highs, was driven by rising crude feedstock costs, refining margins, and distillate values, as well as ongoing refinery maintenance and disruptions in bunker fuel flows to Europe, supporting the bullish trend in the market.

23.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 6.0%

  • The bearish movement in Heating Oil prices today can be attributed to recent geopolitical developments easing concerns of an immediate supply shock in the Middle East.
  • Despite the pullback, underlying fundamentals remain supportive due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and fears of disruptions in crude oil flows.
  • The slight easing in prices also reflects seasonally soft summer heating demand and ample global supply, acting as limiting factors on further price increases.
  • Overall, the market sentiment for Heating Oil remains cautious, with ongoing geopolitical risks and supply-demand dynamics playing a significant role in price movements.
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Disclaimer
Morpher is not liable for the content of the AI investment insights. Like most GPT-powered tools, these summaries may contain AI hallucinations and inaccurate information. Morpher is not presenting you with any investment advice. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, or financial product does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. These summaries do not constitute investment advice.