Heating Oil ($HEATOIL) Commodity Forecast: Up 5.2% Today

What is Heating Oil?

Heating Oil is a crucial commodity used for heating purposes, especially during the colder months. The market for Heating Oil is influenced by various factors such as weather conditions, global supply expectations, and geopolitical tensions.

Why is Heating Oil going up?

HEATOIL commodity is up 5.2% on Oct 23, 2025 8:40

• Heating Oil futures experienced a strong bullish movement today, reaching a three-week high of $2.32 per gallon. This surge can be attributed to several factors:
• New sanctions on Russia's top oil producers tightened global supply expectations, boosting prices.
• Weather forecasts shifting towards seasonally normal conditions signaled rising heating demand.
• The report of distillate fuel oil stocks staying below average, along with significant stock draws earlier this year, added to the bullish sentiment.
• The rebound in Heating Oil prices also reflects a tight distillate complex meeting a firmer crude backdrop and an improved seasonal demand outlook.
• Despite the recent bearish trend with Heating Oil hitting a four-month low and an 18-week low, today's bullish movement indicates a shift in market sentiment driven by a combination of geopolitical events, weather forecasts, and supply-demand dynamics.

HEATOIL Price Chart

HEATOIL Technical Analysis

HEATOIL News

US Heating Oil Futures Rise to 3-Week High

US heating oil futures jumped to $2.32 per gallon, their highest in three weeks, supported by stronger demand and a rebound in crude prices. The rally followed new US sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, as President Donald Trump intensified pressure on Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. The sanctions, citing Moscow’s lack of progress toward peace, tightened global supply expectations. Meanwhile, weather forecasts have shifted from mild to seasonally normal for late October and early November, signaling rising heating demand. The EIA’s latest outlook showed US distillate inventories will stay below average through 2026, pressured by strong exports, refinery closures, and significant stock draws earlier this year. Inventories fell by 17%, or about 22 million barrels, in the first half of 2025. Demand for distillate fuel oil rose 5% as renewable diesel and biodiesel output slumped 35% year-on-year.

Heating Oil Extends Rebound

US heating oil futures rose toward $2.25 per gallon, rebounding from a four-month low of $2.15 on October 16th, as a tight distillate complex met a firmer crude backdrop and the seasonal demand outlook improved. The Energy Information Administration reported distillate fuel oil stocks rose by a meager 0.04 million barrels in the week to October 17th after a roughly 4.5 million barrel draw the prior week, leaving inventories well below the five-year average. At the same time, refinery runs have eased from summer highs and are running below seasonal norms, constraining product output. Weather models shifted toward cooler conditions over the next two weeks across large swaths of the US Northeast and Midwest, lifting expectations for higher heating demand. Meanwhile, crude oil has rebounded amid renewed geopolitical and trade concerns which threatened both global supply and demand.

Heating Oil Rebounds from 4-Month Low

US heating oil futures rose to $2.19 per gallon, rebounding from a four-month low of $2.15 on October 16th, driven by a sharp draw in distillate inventories and the onset of winter demand even as crude feedstock costs remained weak. The Energy Information Administration reported distillate fuel oil stocks fell 4.53 million barrels in the week ended October 10th, after a 2.02 million-barrel draw the prior week, leaving inventories about 7% below the five-year average. At the same time refinery runs slipped to roughly 85.7% of capacity, constraining product output. Meanwhile, meteorologists revised their two-week outlook toward cooler conditions through early November, lifting expectations for higher heating demand. With visible supply tightening in heating fuels just as seasonal demand ramps and export appetite for distillates remains robust, the distillate complex has outperformed most other oil benchmarks.

Heating Oil Hits 4-Month Low

US heating oil futures fell toward $2.16 per gallon, hitting a four-month low as falling crude oil feedstock costs outweighed support from a tight distillate complex. Crude stocks rose 3.52 million barrels in the week ending October 10th, well above the 0.12 million-barrel consensus, fueling concerns about weak demand amid ongoing US–China trade tensions. Additionally, global supply expectations remain robust as OPEC+ and non-OPEC output expands, continuing to pressure crude lower. However, heating oil outperformed most oil benchmarks as the latest EIA weekly report undercut the narrative of abundant supply. Distillate stocks fell 4.53 million barrels, following a 2.02 million-barrel draw the prior week, leaving inventories further below the seasonal average. Heating oil inventories also drew about 4.0 million barrels, adding additional strain to the refined-product market.

Heating Oil Hits 18-week Low

Heating Oil decreased to 2.17 USD/Gal, the lowest since June 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Heating Oil lost 7.87%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 1.1%.

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Heating Oil Price History

24.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 9.6%

• The ceasefire announcement between Israel and Iran reduced fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East, leading to a drop in crude oil prices and subsequently pressuring heating oil futures.
• Refining margins narrowed due to ample inventories and softening summer demand, while cooler-than-expected temperatures in key northeastern US markets further limited near-term consumption of heating oil.
• Despite threats of potential disruptions in the Persian Gulf, the continued transit of oil tankers and rising Iranian oil exports contributed to the downward pressure on heating oil prices.
• Forecasts of a major US heat wave and high demand for refined fuel products like diesel and marine fuel could tighten the market, but the current geopolitical situation and supply dynamics are keeping speculative interest high and preventing a significant decline in heating oil prices.

13.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 2.7%

• Heating Oil prices reached a 10-week peak of $2.20 per gallon driven by limited crude supplies, reduced trade tensions, and robust seasonal demand outlook.
• Uncertainty arose in the market due to President Trump's statements on tariffs and trade discussions with China, impacting energy product demand.
• Despite the price surge, growth in distillate and heating oil inventories moderated it, suggesting some downward pressure on prices amid an overall positive market sentiment.
• The bullish trend in Heating Oil is mainly due to supply constraints, trade dynamics, and seasonal demand, albeit partially offset by inventory builds.

13.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 6.9%

• Heating oil prices surged to multi-month highs as Middle East tensions escalated, leading to concerns about potential supply disruptions and increased demand for the commodity.
• Conversely, prices retreated from recent highs amid trade uncertainties and ample distillate inventories, dampening market sentiment and putting downward pressure on prices.
• A combination of tightening crude supplies, easing trade frictions, and strong seasonal demand expectations pushed prices to a 10-month high, despite the surge in distillate inventories tempering the rally.
• Overall, the bullish movement in heating oil prices today can be attributed to a mix of geopolitical events, trade developments, supply dynamics, and seasonal demand outlook, showcasing the complexity of factors influencing commodity markets.

17.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.0%

• Heating oil futures reached a 10-month high of around $2.20 per gallon due to tightening crude supplies, easing trade frictions, and firm seasonal demand expectations.
• Optimism in geopolitical relations, particularly between the US and China, contributed to hopes for increased global oil consumption.
• However, despite the bullish movement, swelling distillate inventories and a significant build in heating oil stocks hinted at potential downward pressure on prices in the near future.

17.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 6.7%

• Today's bullish movement in heating oil prices was driven by escalating Middle East tensions, with geopolitical unrest causing concerns about potential supply disruptions.
• The unexpected increase in distillate inventories, including a significant rise in heating oil stocks, added downward pressure on prices despite the geopolitical uncertainty, as ample supply levels weighed on the market sentiment.
• The warmer-than-usual weather forecast leading to reduced heating oil demand also contributed to the pullback in prices.
• Overall, the combination of geopolitical tensions, supply build-up, and demand outlooks influenced today's market movement in heating oil, highlighting the complex interplay of factors shaping commodity prices.

23.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 13.4%

• Today, heating oil experienced a strong bearish movement, dropping from a recent high of $2.60 per gallon.
• The bearish trend in heating oil prices can be attributed to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the US and Iran, which has reduced fears of supply disruptions in the region.
• Additionally, ample inventories, softening summer demand, and forecasts of cooler temperatures in key northeastern US markets have also contributed to the downward pressure on heating oil prices.
• The overall market sentiment seems to have shifted towards a more relaxed stance, with traders focusing on factors such as supply levels, demand outlook, and geopolitical developments to gauge future price movements in the heating oil market.

23.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 9.8%

• Despite tensions escalating in the Middle East, especially involving the US, Israel, and Iran, immediate supply disruptions have not occurred, easing worries of a significant oil shortage and leading to a decrease in heating oil prices.
• The reduction in US crude inventories, alongside a strong demand for diesel, marine fuel, and summer-grade products, has helped heating oil prices. However, this has not fully balanced the overall market sentiment.
• President Trump's announcement of postponing US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict has eased concerns temporarily, contributing to the decline in heating oil futures.
• The increase in heating oil prices to a 14-month peak was mainly caused by a squeeze in distillate supplies, growing costs of crude-oil feedstock, and increasing geopolitical risks, indicating the volatile nature of the commodity market.

23.09.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.2%

• Heating Oil futures experienced a strong bullish movement today, reaching a three-week high of $2.32 per gallon. This surge can be attributed to several factors:
• New sanctions on Russia's top oil producers tightened global supply expectations, boosting prices.
• Weather forecasts shifting towards seasonally normal conditions signaled rising heating demand.
• The report of distillate fuel oil stocks staying below average, along with significant stock draws earlier this year, added to the bullish sentiment.
• The rebound in Heating Oil prices also reflects a tight distillate complex meeting a firmer crude backdrop and an improved seasonal demand outlook.
• Despite the recent bearish trend with Heating Oil hitting a four-month low and an 18-week low, today's bullish movement indicates a shift in market sentiment driven by a combination of geopolitical events, weather forecasts, and supply-demand dynamics.

23.09.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.1%

• The bullish movement in Heating Oil prices was primarily driven by a sharp draw in distillate inventories and the onset of winter demand, despite weak crude feedstock costs.
• The tightening supply of heating fuels, along with expectations of higher heating demand due to cooler weather conditions, contributed to the rebound in Heating Oil prices.
• The market movement was also supported by a significant decrease in distillate stocks, indicating a tighter distillate complex.
• Despite concerns about weak demand and global supply pressures on crude oil, Heating Oil outperformed other oil benchmarks due to the favorable inventory data and seasonal demand outlook.

18.06.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.3%

• The bullish movement in heating oil prices today can be attributed to a combination of factors:
• Softening consumption signals and concerns over trade wars have tipped the supply/demand balance towards ample stocks, leading to a drop in prices.
• President Trump's threat of imposing tariffs on EU and Mexican goods, along with existing duties on Canadian energy products, has injected uncertainty into global economic growth forecasts, potentially slowing fuel consumption.
• Refiners in China favoring gasoline and diesel output over middle distillates have left heating oil more exposed, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
• On the other hand, the bullish movement can also be linked to rising crude feedstock costs lifting refining margins and supporting distillate values, leading to higher heating oil prices.

18.06.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was up 5.4%

• The surge in heating oil prices to near one-month highs can be attributed to a combination of factors such as warfare in the Middle East, tight supplies, solid demand, and output disruptions in Iraqi Kurdistan and EU sanctions on Russian oil, creating a bullish sentiment in the market.
• Conversely, the drop in heating oil prices to a monthly low was influenced by softer consumption signals, renewed trade-war concerns, a surprise build in distillate inventories in the US, and President Trump's tariff threats on EU and Mexican goods, leading to a bearish market movement.
• The upward momentum in heating oil prices, hovering at two-week highs, was driven by rising crude feedstock costs, refining margins, and distillate values, as well as ongoing refinery maintenance and disruptions in bunker fuel flows to Europe, supporting the bullish trend in the market.

23.05.2025 - HEATOIL Commodity was down 6.0%

• The bearish movement in Heating Oil prices today can be attributed to recent geopolitical developments easing concerns of an immediate supply shock in the Middle East.
• Despite the pullback, underlying fundamentals remain supportive due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and fears of disruptions in crude oil flows.
• The slight easing in prices also reflects seasonally soft summer heating demand and ample global supply, acting as limiting factors on further price increases.
• Overall, the market sentiment for Heating Oil remains cautious, with ongoing geopolitical risks and supply-demand dynamics playing a significant role in price movements.