Cryptocurrencies Top Buyers Under Stress
Executive Summary Bitcoin has pulled back to $111k, with support anchored by the $93k–$110k cost basis cluster. A break below $107k–$108.9k could open downside toward $93k–$95k. Short-term holders remain under stress, making $113.6k a likely resistance as they sell into any bounce. Unrealized and realized losses remain shallow, far from past bear extremes, suggesting limited capitulation so far. Spot demand has neutralized, while perpetual futures lean bearish, with funding rates signalling fragile neutrality. 💡 View all charts in this edition in The Week On-chain Dashboard. Filling the Gap The market enters its second week of retracement from the $124k all-time high, raising the question of whether this is merely a short pause or the start of a deeper contraction. To frame this discussion, we turn to price models, beginning with the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap.The CBD Heatmap provides a visualization of supply concentration across different acquisition prices, highlighting where significant portions of coins last changed hands. Each band of colour reflects dense regions of cost basis, which often act as natural support or resistance zones.At present, Bitcoin trades near $111k, hovering just above the lower edge of the “air gap” highlighted in earlier reports. This latest pullback has allowed for the redistribution of supply at discounted prices, gradually filling in the gap. Notably, a thick cluster of supply between $93k and $110k has been forming since December 2024, steadily maturing into a potential floor.This accumulation helps explain the ongoing resilience above $110k, suggesting that further correction would require either significant short-term sell pressure or a longer demand pause sufficient to frustrate these investors into capitulation Live Chart Testing the Patience of New Buyers To better gauge the frustration within the market, we turn to the cost basis of recent investors. This metric captures the average acquisition price of coins held by cohorts who entered within the past 1 to 6 months, serving as a psychological benchmark. When the market trades below these levels, it often signals that newer holders are slipping into unrealized loss, a state that can provoke impatience and selling pressure.Currently, Bitcoin trades beneath the cost basis of both the 1-month ($115.6k) and 3-month ($113.6k) cohorts, leaving these investors under stress. Any relief rally is therefore likely to encounter resistance, as short-term holders seek to exit at breakeven.More critically, the 6-month cost basis sits near ~$107k. A sustained move below this level risks triggering fear, which could accelerate downside momentum toward the lower edge of the supporting supply cluster highlighted in the CBD Heatmap. Live Chart Speculating the Mid-Term Risk If the current weakness extends and price continues to trade beneath the cost basis of short-term holders near $108.9k, history suggests caution is warranted. In past cycles, such breaks have often preceded multi-month bearish phases, as newer investors capitulated under mounting unrealized losses.Framing this risk through the 4-year statistical bands, prior bearish drawdowns typically found their eventual lows around one standard deviation beneath the short-term holders’ cost basis. For the present cycle, this lower bound is estimated near $95.1k. Thus, should Bitcoin fail to regain footing above the $107k–$108.9k threshold, the mid-term range for a potential bottom formation likely resides in the $93k–$95k zone, aligning with the dense cluster of support highlighted earlier in the CBD Heatmap. Live Chart Past Cyclical Bears To put the current level of pain into perspective, we can compare today’s market structure with prior cyclical extremes. Historically, bear markets have been marked by severe drawdowns that either defined mid-cycle resets or full-blown capitulation events.So far, the recent decline to $110.1k represents an ~11.4% drawdown from the $124k all-time high. This is notably modest compared to prior mid-cycle bears, which typically exceeded 25%, or the deep cyclical lows that saw losses greater than 75%. In this context, the intensity of the ongoing correction remains relatively shallow and does not yet resemble the stress profiles seen in historical extremes. Live Chart Gauging Pain Through Unrealized Losses Another way to size the current correction is through Relative Unrealized Loss, which measures the share of the market’s aggregate losses relative to market cap. This metric highlights the scale of stress investors are experiencing compared to prior cycles.Since November 2023, Relative Unrealized Loss has largely stayed below the -0.5 standard deviation level, around 5%, never approaching the depths observed during the prolonged bear markets of 2018–2020 or 2022–2023.At present, with Bitcoin trading near $111k, the metric stands at just 0.5%, massively lower than the loss levels typically associated with deep bear phases (>30%). This perspective reinforces the earlier conclusion that although recent drawdowns have frustrated short-term holders, the magnitude of unrealized pain across the broader market remains far from historical extremes. Live Chart Realizing the Pain While unrealized losses offer one lens into investor stress, it is equally important to observe how much of that paper loss is actually being realized on-chain. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides this insight by measuring the ratio between the price at which coins are spent and their cost basis. Values above 1 imply profits are being realized, whereas values below 1 indicate coins are being sold at a loss — a sign of capitulation.Currently, the 7-day moving average of the change-adjusted SOPR, which filters out internal transfers, is sitting near the neutral value of 1. This suggests that most active investors are neither realizing significant gains nor losses, a sign of uncertainty.Historically, cyclical lows have only been confirmed when this metric fell below 0.98, marking widespread capitulation across the network. For now, the absence of such a signal indicates that, despite heightened anxiety, the market has yet to experience the deep realization of losses that define true bear market bottoms. Live Chart Spot Market Neutralizing After establishing the statistical bounds of potential price outcomes through on-chain analysis, we can turn to off-chain data to assess sentiment from the perspective of exchange order books. A useful lens here is Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), which tracks the net difference between trades initiated by buyers and sellers, then aggregates this imbalance into a cumulative signal.To gauge shifts in spot market behaviour, we compare the 30-day moving average of CVD against its 180-day median. Across major venues like Coinbase and Binance, as well as aggregated exchange flows, this bias has recently converged toward zero. This represents a notable change from the strong buying pressure observed in April 2025, which fuelled the rebound from $72k. While a small positive spike in July helped drive the rally toward $124k, the broader trend now reflects a neutralization of spot sentiment, suggesting less conviction among buyers at the current level. Live Chart Perpetuals Leaning Bearish In contrast to the neutral tone of the spot market, the picture in perpetual futures has shifted decisively bearish. Since July, the CVD bias across Binance, Bybit, and exchanges in aggregate has declined into negative territory, signalling a growing imbalance toward sell pressure. This suggests that perpetual traders, who often act as the more speculative segment of the market, have been increasingly leaning short during the recent pullback.That said, this indicator is highly volatile, frequently oscillating between extremes of buy and sell pressure within short periods. While the current bias underscores mounting headwinds, it should be monitored closely to confirm whether this negative tilt matures into a sustained trend or proves to be another transient swing in perpetual positioning. Live Chart Fragile Neutrality To confirm the broader sentiment in perpetual markets, we can pair CVD analysis with funding rates, which track the cost of holding long versus short positions. The 7-day moving average of funding rates across major exchanges currently sits near 0.01%, punctuated by brief spikes to higher values on certain venues.This pattern suggests that while some leveraged traders have attempted to buy the dip, their efforts have not been strong enough to shift the overall balance. Instead, the market remains in a neutral but fragile state, where a modest uptick in sell pressure could quickly tilt sentiment bearish. Live Chart Conclusion Bitcoin’s retracement to $111k leaves the market testing a pivotal range. The $107k–$108.9k cost basis of recent investors marks critical support, with failure to hold opening the path toward $93k–$95k, where dense supply clusters could form a mid-term floor. A bounce back toward $113.6k is possible, but would likely meet resistance as stressed short-term holders sell into strength.At the same time, unrealized and realized losses remain shallow, and SOPR has not signalled broad capitulation. Off-chain, spot demand has neutralized, while perpetual futures lean bearish and fragile. In sum, the correction is modest compared to past cycles, but conviction has weakened, leaving the market balanced between resilience and further downside. Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for informational, and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies. Please read our Transparency Notice when using exchange data. Join our Telegram channel. For on-chain metrics, dashboards, and alerts, visit Glassnode Studio.
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