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Sonic (prev. FTM) ($S) Crypto Forecast: Down 6.0% Today

Morpher AI identified a bearish signal. The crypto price may continue to fall based on the momentum of the negative news.

What is Sonic (prev. FTM)?

Asset S is a cryptocurrency token that experienced a strong bearish movement in the market today.

Why is Sonic (prev. FTM) going down?

S crypto is down 6.0% on Dec 18, 2025 19:46

  • The bearish movement in the cryptocurrency token S could be attributed to:
  • Increased negative gamma exposure in the options market, leading to amplified selling pressure as prices fell.
  • Dealers hedging their positions by selling as prices dropped, contributing to short-term volatility.
  • The flow-based Gamma Exposure (GEX) measure tailored to crypto options markets may have indicated areas where dealer hedging flows destabilized the market, resulting in the bearish movement.
  • Traders may have responded to the negative GEX pockets by adjusting their strategies, potentially leading to accelerated downward price movements.

S Price Chart

S Technical Analysis

S News

Introducing: Taker-Flow-Based Gamma Exposure

In options markets, dealer hedging flows play a central role in shaping short-term price behavior. Gamma Exposure (GEX) is used to identify where those hedging flows are likely to stabilize price action and where they may amplify moves. While GEX is well established in equity and index options, applying it directly to crypto markets is problematic.Crypto options markets differ materially in participant behavior and in how dealer positioning can be inferred from market data. To account for this, we reconstruct a flow-based Gama exposure measure tailored to crypto options markets, designed to recover how dealer positioning evolves across strikes and maturities. We show how this framework can be used to interpret volatility regimes and identify price zones where dealer hedging may meaningfully influence market dynamics. To start using the new metric, visit Glassnode Studio. Available to Professional plan users. Visit metric What is Gamma Exposure and Why it Matters Gamma Exposure (GEX) measures how options market-makers’ hedging flows react to movements in the underlying asset.Market makers, who typically maintain delta-neutral positions, must continuously hedge their gamma exposure by buying or selling futures or spot to offset the delta of the options they’ve sold or bought. When price moves, option deltas change (that is gamma), forcing dealers to rebalance. These rebalancing flows create structural feedback loops in the market and are a source of some of the most significant mechanically driven flows observed in the equity markets.At the core of this dynamic, the taker is the end user — a trader or investor buying or selling options, while the dealer (or market-maker) is the counterparty providing liquidity. Their positions are mirror images of each other: when the taker buys a call, the dealer sells it. Why is GEX useful? At price levels with high positive gamma, dealers hedge in a way that tends to absorb price shocks. They typically buy on dips and sell on rallies, which dampens volatility and can keep price pinned near certain strikes: a phenomenon often described “gamma gravity” or “pinning”. At price levels with high negative gamma, dealer hedging flows work in the opposite direction and amplify price moves. Dealers sell as prices fall and buy as prices rise, often increasing short-term volatility. In short, GEX highlights where dealer hedging is likely to stabilize or destabilize the market, turning the options surface into a map of potential volatility regimes rather than a passive snapshot of positioning. TradFi Origins: Gamma Exposure Calculation in Traditional Finance Gamma exposure metrics originated in equity and index options markets (for example, SPX). The classic construction is: Where: OI is open interest at that strike Γ is option gamma S is the underlying spot price sign_dealer is the assumed sign of the dealer position (long or short) Because traditional equity datasets do not label who is the taker on a trade, this framework relies on a simple heuristic about who typically holds which side of the options market: Call options are sold by investors and bought by dealers Put options are bought by investors and sold by dealers In the classic equity context, investors typically write calls for yield enhancement and use puts as downside insurance. Why the Equity Heuristic Fails in Crypto In crypto options, the equity-style assumptions break down. A large share of participants actively buy calls to speculate on upside, rather than systematically selling them for yield. Meanwhile, puts are frequently traded tactically rather than used purely as hedges for long-only portfolios. If we continue to assume “calls = investor short, dealer long” and “puts = investor long, dealer short,” we construct a dealer profile that does not reflect actual positioning.There is a second, more subtle issue. The classical approach treats open interest at each strike as a single block position with one sign. In practice, a strike’s OI is built from both buying and selling flows. A simple case where 50% of OI came from takers buying (dealers short) and 50% from takers selling (dealers long), the net dealer exposure is close to zero — yet the heuristic would still report a large exposure. Instead, what we actually want is: A realistic sign of dealer positioning (long vs short); A realistic net size of that position after netting out opposing flows. A Flow-First Approach to Gamma Exposure (GEX) in Crypto Unlike traditional equity markets, crypto options venues expose who is the taker on each trade. For every transaction, we can observe whether the taker bought or sold a call or a put. We then make a clear modeling assumption: the maker on the other side of the trade is a dealer providing liquidity.This allows us to treat the taker as the end user and infer dealer positioning as the mirror image of cumulative taker flow, strike by strike and maturity by maturity. Over time, this builds a realistic picture of how dealers are positioned across the volatility surface.On this foundation, we build a methodology that tracks dealer inventory through time and translate that inventory into gamma exposure using option greeks and spot price. The result is a structural GEX measure anchored in actual trading flow, rather than static heuristics. A full description of this process is provided in the Appendix at the end.The chart below shows BTC options gamma exposure across strike prices on Deribit. Each bar represents the net gamma exposure (in USD) concentrated at that strike: green indicates positive exposure, red indicates negative exposure. The distribution shows a dominant positive gamma cluster around ~$86k–$87k, with smaller pockets of negative exposure around ~$83k and ~$101k. View live chart Metric Interpretation Gamma exposure helps map where hedging flows may impact price action. Large positive GEX near ~$85k–$86k suggests a zone where dealer hedging is likely to be mean-reverting (buying dips and selling rallies), contributing to pinning or slower price movement around those strikes. By contrast, negative GEX pockets mark areas where hedging becomes momentum-reinforcing (selling into weakness / buying into strength), increasing the likelihood of faster, more directional moves if spot trades into them.Available for: Resolution: 10-minute Assets: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, PAXG Exchanges: Deribit Trading Use-Cases: How to Use GEX in Practice From a trading perspective, GEX turns the options surface into a map of where dealer flows are likely to amplify or dampen price moves. Identifying “sticky” vs “slippery” price zones High positive GEX near spot: When GEX is strongly positive around a band of strikes near spot, dealers are long gamma in that zone. As the market trades inside this band, their hedging flows tend to buy on dips and sell into rallies, which creates a pinning effect: moves fade, breakouts struggle, and realized volatility often comes in below implied. This is typically a mean-reverting, “sticky” regime, where short-gamma carry trades can work if volatility indeed remains contained. High negative GEX near or below spot: When GEX is strongly negative around or just below spot, the opposite holds: dealers are short gamma, so as spot trades into that region, hedging flows sell into weakness and buy into strength. Instead of dampening moves, they amplify them. Price action becomes more “slippery”: intraday swings can expand, order books can feel thinner, and liquidations or squeezes become more likely. In that environment, traders often respond with lower leverage, wider stops, and more respect for momentum. Watching for gamma flips A particularly important dynamic is the gamma flip, when net GEX around spot changes sign. For example, if price exits a positive-gamma zone and moves into a pocket of negative gamma below, the market can transition from a pinned, mean-reverting regime to one where moves begin to reinforce themselves. Appendix – Our Methodology: Taker-Flow-Based GEX We construct Gamma Exposure on a 10-minute grid per asset, exchange, strike K, maturity M. The key idea is to reconstruct the dealer inventory over time from taker flows, and then translate that inventory into gamma exposure using option greeks.We define the net taker flow in contracts over each 10-minute interval: Under the assumption that dealers are primarily on the passive side, the dealer flow is simply the mirror image of taker flow: We then cumulate these flows over time to obtain a dealer inventory in number of contracts. For calls, this is: and analogously for puts: Here Δt is the 10-minute step. Positive inventory values correspond to dealers being net long contracts at that strike and maturity; negative values correspond to net short.To translate this inventory into gamma exposure, we combine it with option greeks and the underlying price. Let 𝑚 denote the contract multiplier (e.g. BTC per contract), and 𝑆 the spot price at time 𝑡. For each bucket we define the notional exposure:Using the option gammas Γcall(K,M,t) and Γput(K,M,t) from our options chain, the gamma exposure of each leg is: Γcall(K,M,t) is the gamma of the call option at that strike and maturity. This tells you how quickly the option’s delta changes when the underlying price moves.And then total gamma exposure at that strike/maturity is just: Options data is a major focus for Glassnode's product development. We are scaling our coverage with new metrics that extend the depth of our volatility tooling, broaden analytical use cases, and give professionals a more complete view of positioning and risk across the market. Check out the rest of our options releases in 2025. Follow us on X for timely market updates and analysis Join our Telegram channel for regular market insights For on-chain metrics, dashboards, and alerts, visit Glassnode Studio Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only. The analysis represents a limited case study with significant constraints and should not be interpreted as investment advice or definitive trading signals. Past performance patterns do not guarantee future results. Always conduct thorough due diligence and consider multiple factors before making investment decisions.

https://insights.glassnode.com/gamma-exposure/

0 News Article Image Introducing: Taker-Flow-Based Gamma Exposure

Sonic (prev. FTM) Price History

02.11.2025 - S Crypto was up 12.4%

  • The bullish movement of token S can be attributed to the overall positive sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, especially with Bitcoin attracting significant new capital and demonstrating strong price gains.
  • The firing back of Tether's CEO at a rating agency regarding the downgrade of USDT may have caused some uncertainty in the stablecoin market, potentially leading investors to seek alternative cryptocurrencies like token S.
  • The market's focus on stablecoins, tokenization, and off-exchange settlement may have influenced investors to diversify their portfolios into tokens like S, contributing to its bullish movement.
  • The evolving market architecture, with a shift towards high-liquidity majors like Bitcoin and stablecoins dominating on-chain settlement, could have created a favorable environment for token S to experience bullish momentum.

05.11.2025 - S Crypto was down 5.1%

  • The bearish movement of S can be attributed to the negative sentiment in the overall cryptocurrency market, as reflected in the weakening demand indicators such as ETF outflows and declining futures open interest.
  • The market structure resembling Q1 2022, with over 25% of supply underwater and rising realized losses, has heightened sensitivity to macro shocks, potentially contributing to the bearish movement of S.
  • The underpriced options relative to realized volatility and the shift in options market sentiment towards cautious call selling indicate a lack of renewed risk appetite, further dampening the bullish prospects for S.
  • Holding within the critical quantile band of $96.1K–$106K is essential for stabilizing market structure and reducing downside vulnerability, highlighting the importance of key support levels for S amidst the current fragile market conditions.

26.09.2025 - S Crypto was up 5.2%

  • The bullish movement of S today could be attributed to the positive news of T. Rowe Price filing for an actively managed cryptocurrency ETF. This news indicates growing mainstream acceptance and adoption of digital currencies, boosting investor confidence in the overall market.
  • The filing with the SEC suggests that institutional investors are increasingly looking to diversify their portfolios with exposure to cryptocurrencies, leading to increased demand for tokens like S.
  • The announcement of the ETF could also be seen as a validation of the legitimacy and potential long-term value of cryptocurrencies, attracting more investors to the market and driving up prices.

13.10.2025 - S Crypto was down 5.7%

  • The bearish movement in the cryptocurrency token S today can be attributed to the broader market sentiment, where Bitcoin is struggling to break out of its defined range.
  • Seller exhaustion near the $100K level and a lack of strong follow-through demand are contributing to the overall bearish tone in the market.
  • ETF outflows, muted funding rates, and low open interest indicate subdued speculative engagement, reflecting a cautious approach from investors.
  • The market is currently consolidating and awaiting stronger inflows or macro catalysts to potentially break out of the current equilibrium, keeping the cryptocurrency token S within a bearish trajectory.

18.11.2025 - S Crypto was down 6.0%

  • The bearish movement in the cryptocurrency token S could be attributed to:
  • Increased negative gamma exposure in the options market, leading to amplified selling pressure as prices fell.
  • Dealers hedging their positions by selling as prices dropped, contributing to short-term volatility.
  • The flow-based Gamma Exposure (GEX) measure tailored to crypto options markets may have indicated areas where dealer hedging flows destabilized the market, resulting in the bearish movement.
  • Traders may have responded to the negative GEX pockets by adjusting their strategies, potentially leading to accelerated downward price movements.

01.11.2025 - S Crypto was down 6.0%

  • The bearish movement of S is believed to be linked to the controversy surrounding Tether (USDT), a stablecoin closely associated with many cryptocurrencies, including S.
  • The discord between Tether's CEO and S&P Global Ratings could have prompted concerns among investors regarding the reliability and transparency of USDT, impacting the broader cryptocurrency market.
  • The rebuttal of S&P's evaluation by Tether's CEO likely introduced uncertainty in the market, leading to a sell-off of assets like S as traders sought safer alternatives amid the instability in the stablecoin sector.

15.09.2025 - S Crypto was down 6.0%

  • The bearish movement in the cryptocurrency token S can be attributed to macro stress and extreme leverage triggering a significant deleveraging event in the derivatives market.
  • The drop below key cost-basis levels placed top buyers in loss, indicating near-term fragility in the market.
  • Cooling demand and continued distribution by Long-Term Holders, along with weakened ETF inflows, suggest softening institutional appetite, contributing to the downward pressure on the token.
  • The options market saw a spike in volatility and a shift in skew towards put options, indicating traders rushing to hedge against further downside risks.

15.09.2025 - S Crypto was down 5.6%

  • The bearish movement of S could be attributed to the overall market sentiment and profit-taking behavior among investors.
  • The partnership between S&P Global and Chainlink to integrate stablecoin rating on-chain may have diverted investor attention towards stablecoins, impacting the demand for riskier assets like S.
  • The anticipation of ETF approvals for Litecoin and Hedera could have led investors to reallocate their funds from S to these potentially upcoming ETFs, causing a bearish movement in S.
  • The market's sensitivity to regulatory news and the ongoing US government shutdown may have added uncertainty, prompting traders to take a cautious approach towards S, resulting in the bearish movement.

30.08.2025 - S Crypto was up 5.7%

  • The bullish movement of S could be attributed to the positive sentiment generated by recent spot Solana ETF S-1 amendments filed by leading asset managers, boosting confidence in the token.
  • The launch of a tokenized version of the S&P 500 index on Base blockchain may have also contributed to the overall positive market sentiment, indirectly benefiting S as investors diversify their portfolios into different asset classes.
  • The rebound of S above $210 after finding key support last week indicates renewed interest and buying pressure in the token, potentially fueled by the broader market optimism and institutional involvement in the cryptocurrency space.

08.09.2025 - S Crypto was down 6.0%

  • The bearish movement of S could be attributed to the overall decline in Litecoin (LTC) and Hedera (HBAR) prices.
  • The delay in ETF approvals for Litecoin and Hedera due to the US government shutdown might have created uncertainty and led to selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market, including S.
  • Investors may be cautious and hesitant to hold onto S and other cryptocurrencies until there is more clarity on the approval of ETFs, impacting the token's price negatively.
  • The market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies like S could remain bearish until there is a resolution regarding the ETF approvals and the end of the government shutdown.

08.09.2025 - S Crypto was down 5.0%

  • Bitcoin climbed past significant resistance levels to hit a new all-time high close to $126k, fueled by increased spot demand and substantial ETF inflows exceeding $2.2B.
  • Despite this bullish breakthrough, escalating leverage and crowded call positions have introduced short-term vulnerability, leading to a price decline.
  • Market sentiment remains positive overall, but increased profit-taking and leverage accumulation have contributed to today's bearish trend.
  • Ongoing market dynamics, such as optimism in the options market and institutional interest, indicate Bitcoin's strong upward trend, though it remains susceptible to profit-taking and leverage adjustments, influencing today's bearish movement.

05.10.2025 - S Crypto was up 10.7%

  • Bitcoin has dipped below the Short-Term Holders’ Cost Basis, signaling diminishing demand and the conclusion of its previous bullish trend, leading to a consolidation phase near the $100K mark.
  • Long-time holders have been gradually reducing their holdings since July, suggesting a decrease in confidence among experienced investors.
  • Institutional interest has waned, as evidenced by continuous outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which correlates with the broader decline in prices.
  • Traders in the options market are currently emphasizing the importance of hedging strategies over accumulation, with a noticeable increase in put options demand and rising premiums for the $100K strike.
  • The market is currently delicately balanced, reflecting a cautious approach among traders as they anticipate a potential resurgence in demand to drive prices back up.
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Disclaimer
Morpher is not liable for the content of the AI investment insights. Like most GPT-powered tools, these summaries may contain AI hallucinations and inaccurate information. Morpher is not presenting you with any investment advice. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, or financial product does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. These summaries do not constitute investment advice.