Paychex Inc. ($PAYX) Stock Forecast: Down 5.1% Today

What is Paychex Inc.?

Paychex Inc. ($PAYX) is a leading provider of payroll, human resource, and benefits outsourcing services for small to medium-sized businesses in the United States.

Why is Paychex Inc. going down?

PAYX stock is down 5.1% on Feb 3, 2026 20:26

• The bearish movement in Paychex Inc. ($PAYX) stock today could be attributed to:
• Concerns in the market about the impact of AI on payroll processors.
• Despite strong Q3 earnings and positive financial performance, the stock saw a dip possibly due to lowered price targets and ratings by analysts.
• Institutional investors adjusting their positions in Paychex, with Federated Hermes Inc. significantly increasing its holdings while Mawer Investment Management Ltd. trimmed its stake, indicating mixed sentiments in the market.
• The broader job market slowdown and challenges faced by businesses with labor supply and healthcare costs might have also contributed to the bearish movement.

PAYX Price Chart

PAYX Technical Analysis

PAYX News

U.S. small business hiring steady, wage gains stay below 3%

U.S. small business job and wage growth remained consistent to start 2026, according to the January Paychex Small Business Employment Watch. The Small Business Jobs Index increased slightly to 99.30, and hourly earnings growth held steady at 2.68%. Paychex president and CEO John Gibson noted that the economy is expanding at a solid pace without significant wage inflation, though businesses still face challenges with labor supply and healthcare costs.

https://www.stocktitan.net/news/PAYX/u-s-small-business-employment-trends-hold-steady-to-start-2e3eb34rgwfd.html

Jim Cramer on Automatic Data Processing: “To Me, It Looked Like Wall Street’s Simply Convinced That the Payroll Processors Are Doomed”

Jim Cramer discussed Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP), noting the stock's recent decline despite solid earnings that beat expectations and an increased fiscal 2026 forecast. He suggests that Wall Street is overly concerned about AI impacting payroll processors, a sentiment not shared by ADP's CFO. Cramer observed that the broader job market has slowed, but ADP's numbers appear fine, making the market's negative reaction confusing to him.

https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/jim-cramer-on-automatic-data-processing-to-me-it-looked-like-wall-streets-simply-convinced-that-the-payroll-processors-are-doomed-1688083/

Earnings call transcript: ADP Q2 2026 beats EPS forecast, stock dips

ADP reported strong Q2 2026 results, beating EPS and revenue forecasts with an EPS of $2.62 and revenue of $5.4 billion. Despite the positive financial performance and raised revenue and adjusted EPS guidance, ADP's stock saw a pre-market dip of 3.36%. The company attributes growth to product innovations, AI integration, and strength across its Employer Services and PEO segments, while acknowledging challenges like a slight retention rate decline and macroeconomic pressures.

https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-adp-q2-2026-beats-eps-forecast-stock-dips-93CH-4481060

Federated Hermes Inc. Raises Stake in Paychex, Inc. $PAYX

Federated Hermes Inc. significantly increased its holdings in Paychex, Inc. by 98.6% during the third quarter, bringing its total ownership to 56,806 shares valued at $7.2 million. Other institutional investors also adjusted their positions in Paychex, which currently has a consensus "Reduce" rating from analysts with an average price target of $123.94. The company recently reported strong quarterly earnings, surpassing analyst estimates, and declared a quarterly dividend of $1.08 per share.

https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-federated-hermes-inc-raises-stake-in-paychex-inc-payx-2026-02-03/

Mawer Investment Management Ltd. Trims Position in Paychex, Inc. $PAYX

Mawer Investment Management Ltd. reduced its stake in Paychex, Inc. (NASDAQ:PAYX) by 17% in the third quarter, selling 69,365 shares. Despite this, Paychex reported strong Q3 earnings, beating analyst estimates, and announced a $1 billion share buyback program along with a quarterly dividend of $1.08. Analysts have recently lowered price targets and ratings for Paychex, leading to a "Reduce" consensus.

https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-mawer-investment-management-ltd-trims-position-in-paychex-inc-payx-2026-02-02/

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Paychex Inc. Price History

19.11.2025 - PAYX Stock was down 5.4%

• Despite strong financial performance and surpassing revenue estimates, Paychex (PAYX) faced a bearish market movement.
• The market reaction could be linked to the high customer acquisition cost payback period of 78.7 months, potentially influenced by competitive pressures in the industry, raising concerns about future profitability.
• Expectations for even stronger performance or growth metrics from investors might have contributed to profit-taking and a bearish sentiment post-earnings report.
• Broader market conditions or sector-specific trends may have also played a role in driving the bearish movement in Paychex's stock price, overshadowing the positive earnings results.

25.05.2025 - PAYX Stock was down 6.2%

• The bearish movement in PAYX stock today could be attributed to investors' cautious sentiment ahead of the company's upcoming earnings report.
• Analysts' revised forecasts and expectations for Paychex's Q4 earnings may have created uncertainty among investors, leading to a sell-off in the stock.
• The lack of confidence in Paychex's potential to beat earnings expectations, as indicated by the mixed projections from Wall Street analysts, might have contributed to the downward pressure on the stock.
• Investors may be reacting to concerns about Paychex's revenue and earnings growth rates, despite the company's positive performance in terms of segment gains and margin strength.

25.05.2025 - PAYX Stock was down 7.2%

• Paychex stock saw a significant decline as its Q4 revenue of $1.43B fell short of expectations, leading to a 9% drop in shares.
• Increased expenses related to the Paycor deal caused a margin squeeze, overshadowing the company's positive EPS and revenue forecast for FY26.
• Analysts had adjusted their predictions before the earnings call, anticipating quarterly earnings of $1.19 per share on revenue of $1.42 billion, potentially impacting market sentiment negatively.
• Despite expectations of a 9.3% y/y increase in revenue and a 6.3% growth in earnings in Q4, the margin pressure and revenue miss likely drove the bearish movement in Paychex stock on that day.

19.11.2024 - PAYX Stock was down 1.1%

• Paychex reported second-quarter results that beat expectations with a 5% year-over-year sales growth to $1.316 billion. Despite this positive news, the stock saw a bearish movement, indicating a possible sell-off by investors.
• The anticipation of earnings and revenue growth in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 might not have met the market's high expectations, leading to a negative sentiment towards the stock.
• The oversold nature of the stock in the industrials sector, as highlighted by the RSI indicator, could have triggered profit-taking by traders, contributing to the bearish movement.
• Investors might have focused more on other potential concerns or external factors impacting the market sentiment, overshadowing the positive earnings beat by Paychex.

03.01.2026 - PAYX Stock was down 5.1%

• The bearish movement in Paychex Inc. ($PAYX) stock today could be attributed to:
• Concerns in the market about the impact of AI on payroll processors.
• Despite strong Q3 earnings and positive financial performance, the stock saw a dip possibly due to lowered price targets and ratings by analysts.
• Institutional investors adjusting their positions in Paychex, with Federated Hermes Inc. significantly increasing its holdings while Mawer Investment Management Ltd. trimmed its stake, indicating mixed sentiments in the market.
• The broader job market slowdown and challenges faced by businesses with labor supply and healthcare costs might have also contributed to the bearish movement.

26.02.2025 - PAYX Stock was up 5.1%

• Paychex (PAYX) experienced a strong bullish movement today following the release of its Q3 earnings report.
• The company surpassed earnings and revenue estimates, with significant growth in its Management Solutions, PEO, and Insurance Solutions segments.
• The positive earnings report and better-than-expected performance contributed to the stock's sharp rise during the trading session.
• The impending completion of the Paycor acquisition and strong margins further fueled investor optimism in Paychex's future prospects, leading to the bullish market movement.

03.01.2026 - PAYX Stock was down 4.3%

• Today's downward movement in Paychex's stock may be linked to several factors:
• Despite robust quarterly earnings and overall strong financial performance, the stock market's reaction could be influenced by news of ADP surpassing projections yet facing a stock decline, hinting at broader sector challenges.
• The uptick in holdings by Federated Hermes Inc. may have sparked investor concerns regarding the company's future growth prospects, prompting divestment by Mawer Investment Management Ltd.
• Analysts expressing differing opinions on Paychex's valuation and growth possibilities might have contributed to uncertainties surrounding the stock, prompting some investors to reassess their positions and influencing the bearish trend.

26.02.2025 - PAYX Stock was up 5.9%

• Paychex (PAYX) experienced a strong bullish movement today following the release of its third-quarter financial results.
• Analysts had high expectations for the company's earnings, with a forecasted increase from $1.38 per share in the year-ago period to $1.48 per share.
• Anticipation of growth in Management Solutions, PEO, and insurance solutions contributed to the positive market sentiment surrounding Paychex.
• The bullish movement can be attributed to the company potentially exceeding Wall Street's projections for key metrics, signaling a robust performance in the third quarter of fiscal 2025.

18.11.2025 - PAYX Stock was down 2.6%

• Despite expectations of robust revenue and earnings growth in the upcoming earnings report, Paychex (PAYX) experienced a bearish movement today.
• The bearish trend could be attributed to the decrease in institutional ownership and the significant reduction in stake by Thurston Springer Miller Herd & Titak Inc., indicating a lack of confidence from major investors.
• Additionally, the forecasted decrease in non-GAAP EPS by 4.73% might have contributed to the negative market sentiment, overshadowing the anticipated revenue growth.
• Investors may be cautious due to the uncertainty surrounding the earnings beat prediction, as indicated by the current Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank, leading to a sell-off of Paychex shares in today's trading session.

01.07.2025 - PAYX Stock was down 5.1%

• The bearish movement in PAYX today could be attributed to profit-taking by investors after a recent strong uptrend.
• The upcoming earnings report may have created uncertainty among investors, leading to a sell-off in the stock.
• Investors might be reevaluating their positions in PAYX amidst concerns about the company's future growth prospects.
• It's essential to monitor how PAYX performs in the coming days to determine if this bearish trend is a temporary correction or a more prolonged downturn.

04.03.2025 - PAYX Stock was down 5.4%

• Despite the positive aspects of PAYX's business model and services, the stock experienced a bearish movement recently.
• The resurgence in market volatility may have led investors to shift their focus away from relatively stable sectors like human capital management.
• While PAYX's top line growth and strategic acquisitions are promising, broader market sentiment and external factors like tariffs could be influencing the stock's performance negatively.
• Investors may be reevaluating their portfolios and seeking opportunities in other sectors amidst the current market conditions, impacting PAYX's stock price.

30.08.2025 - PAYX Stock was down 6.0%

• Paychex reported Q1 earnings slightly below analyst expectations, leading to a sell-off in the stock.
• Despite a 16.6% year-over-year revenue increase fueled by strong segmental growth, investors may have been disappointed with other key metrics.
• Wall Street's projections for Paychex's key metrics may have fallen short, causing a negative sentiment among investors.
• The lack of the "right combination of two key ingredients" for a likely earnings beat may have contributed to the bearish movement in Paychex stock.